David Stowe 
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
Vegas Script: Total: 47 Ravens: -3
This one just feels like a game where a single person will solo takedown the $11 MME contest. We have tons of questionable guys who are expected to play in what Vegas is implying is essentially a pickem game. Then to make it even more interesting, both of these teams’ offenses can and have crapped the bed in contests where the should score like tonight.
Captains:
Chalk: Lamar Jackson, $18,600 :
To the surprise of nobody Lamar is the lock down #1 chalk by a wide margin being projected at over 20% while nobody else is over 10%. I’m going to frame it like this. Will he be the likely top scoring option on the day? Absolutely. Will you take down a showdown contest by yourself with him as your captain? No. If over 20% of the field is on one player as captain you need to build some lineups where you pivot away from him if you to have an opportunity for a big night. Don’t full fade, but do go underweight in one specific scenario. The leverage is far to high for you to not do it.
Pivot: Nick Chubb, $16,800 : 9-10%
I know that Hunt is expected to return after missing the last month with a calf injury but my expectation is that Hunt will be extremely limited and he and D’Ernest Johnson will split the backup duties tonight. I maintain that Chubb is one of the top 3 running backs in the NFL and would have stat lines similar to a healthy Dalvin Cook if he did not have a rushing title winner as his backup. With Kyrie Irving OBJ now in LA the Browns have finally begun to do what they should have been doing since week one, feed their running backs. In the last 2 games Chubb is averaging 7.41 YPC and getting two catches a game and 3 total TD’s. The man is a beast and we can get him at less that half the ownership with similar upside to Lamar. He is the de facto #1 captain for me based on that.
Contrarian #1: Marquis Brown, $16,200: 7-8%
Depending on how people treat his thigh injury when building their lineups Hollywood may find himself closer to 5% than 8% when it is all said and done. It is clear that he is Lamar’s number one receiver and he has upside for days. For me he is one of those players that I am either going to play as the captain or not at all. He has had a few different games this season where he has dropped wide open touchdowns and multiple ones at that. He is either scoring 20 or more DK points or under 10. There is no in between. In the lineups where you do not put him as a captain I recommend flexing the guy below instead.
Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews, $12,300: 7-8%
It took a little time to get Andrews going but in his last 4 weeks he has gotten no less that 7 targets in the last 4 weeks and in the lineups as I said above where I want to play the Hollywood Brown has the drops narrative Mark Andrews makes the most sense. When the Ravens get down into the red zone I am expecting Jackson to target Andrews over Brown with Cleveland’s secondary and defense as a whole being back to 100%. Denzel Ward should be able to keep Hollywood covered up in those scenarios where he is unable to utilize his straight line speed.
Contrarian #3: Jarvis Landry, $11,700: 6-7%
Jarvis Landry was the better Browns wide receiver throughout the duration of time when him and Kyrie Irving OBJ shared the field, full stop. I know he isn’t the flashy name and he has a history of being known as “the possession receiver” but he can and has put up 19+ DK point games when Cleveland needs to pass the ball over the last few years including 3 of the last 5 games he played last season during the playoff push and week one against the Chiefs where he caught 5 of 5 and ran in a touchdown. And it is his birthday for those of you who love a birthday narrative.
WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28. Flex plays:
- Lamar Jackson
- Nick Chubb
- Mark Andrews
- Baker Mayfield
- Marquise Brown
- Jarvis Landry
- Justin Tucker
- Devonta Freeman
- Rashod Bateman
- Sammy Watkins
- Austin Hooper
- Kareem Hunt
- Devin Duvernay
- Ravens
- Browns
- Kareem Hunt
- David Njoku
- Chase McLaughlin
- Latavius Murray
- Rashard Higgins
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- D’Ernest Johnson
- Ja’Marcus Bradley
- Demetric Felton
- Harrison Bryant
Kickers and defenses:
I can and will run out some lineups with both either defense tonight. In my summary paragraph I mentioned it but if you glossed over it both teams can and will have terrible offensive outings at random points in the season regardless of who they are facing including last week where the Ravens scored 10 points against the Dolphins and week 7 where they got the snot beat out of them by the Bengals. And the Browns have Baker Mayfield throwing the ball, not much else needs to be said. Justin Tucker is always in play as he puts up WR2 numbers each and every week (9.5 DK PPG average, better than Jarvis Landry)
It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
