DFSGhost 
Today’s NBA slate has plenty of familiar matchups, and while there is a long list of questionable players that may end up sitting, some are already ruled out. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,800 DK / $10,500 FD)
Here is my writeup about Luka Doncic when he played the Pelicans two days ago:
“With Kristaps Porzings questionable to play after leaving the Mavericks’ last game versus the Cavaliers, Luka Doncic is in a prime spot to lead the NBA slate in scoring. Even if KP plays in this one, the matchup versus the Pelicans, who rank 25th in defensive rating and struggle mightily versus primary ball handlers, is simply too good to pass up on when looking at Doncic’s ceiling tonight. He has now rallied five straight games of impressive scoring lines after struggling out of the gate to begin the season, where Doncic has a 35.5% usage rate to go with his 27.8/8.6/11 average on 45.1% shooting.”
Porzingis ended up playing that game, and Luka still dropped 28/4/14 for 54.5 DK points; KP is questionable once again. Let’s ride.
Chris Paul ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)
I’d write about playing CP3 without Booker just like Adam did yesterday, but truthfully, he nailed it:
“With the news that Devin Booker is out for a little bit with a hamstring injury, Paul should probably be over $9,000 right now. We saw him flash 50 DraftKings points upside [versus the Warriors] and he has a 22.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute with Booker off the court this year.”
No need to reinvent the wheel here, CP3 is right back to being one of the most popular players at the position.
Honorable Mentions:
- Steph Curry ($11,900 DK / $10,800 FD)
- Dennis Schroder ($6,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
Shooting Guards
Tyler Herro ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD)
With Jimmy Butler out for a few more games and Bam Adebayo out 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury, welcome to the Tyler Herro season. If you’ve been with us since he entered the NBA, you know how much I love his game, in addition to having a ton of preseason futures on him to win both Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player, which, I must say, are looking pretty good right now. Sporting a 29.6% usage rate on the season thus far, Herro sees that number increase to 32.6% with both Butler and Adebayo off the court, including a rise in FPPM from 1.07 to 1.18.
Kevin Huerter ($5,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
One of my Gems from Thursday’s NBA slate, Huerter has now passed the $5,000 threshold, but he remains firmly in play. With the Atlanta Hawks having both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter on the shelf, Huerter will be the primary benefactor to a ton of minutes at the ‘2’ alongside Trae Young. He’s a spot-up shooter, so he can easily implode at any given time, but when he’s hot like he was last game, his shot drops continuously and is worth mentioning for tournaments tonight.
Honorable Mentions
- With Kevin Porter Jr. unlikely to play for the Houston Rockets tonight, in addition to Jalen Green still being out, this is a punt spot using players from said team.
Small Forwards
Jayson Tatum ($10,100 DK / $9,500 FD)
Although the matchup could not be any worse for Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are without Jaylen Brown tonight, meaning Tatum will get as many looks as he wants on the offensive side of the ball. Sporting a 32.1% usage rate on the season, Tatum sees an increase to 34.2% with JB off the court, including an increase from 1.21 FPPM to 1.31. Utah ranks 7th in defensive rating in the NBA, and they’ll be able to close out on him fairly well, but the sheer volume Tatum carries into tonight gives him a high ceiling for tournaments.
Jae’Sean Tate ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD)
With Kevin Porter Jr. unlikely to play, Jalen Green still out, and Christian Wood uncertain after leaving Houston’s last game only 9 minutes in, Jae’Sean Tate could be in line for a ridiculous workload tonight. After both Wood and KPJ left the last game with injuries, Tate finished the night with a 28.5% usage rate, where he dropped 32/10/7 while only taking 15 shots. Should the Rockets be without three of their five starters tonight, he’ll likely be one of the highest rostered players on the NBA slate, and rightfully so.
Honorable Mentions:
- LeBron James ($10,400 DK / $10,000 FD)
- Franz Wagner ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 DK / $8,500 FD)
Despite Myles Turner making his return to the Pacers lineup last game, Sabonis continued his impressive run alongside Malcolm Brogdon. Sporting a 19.3% usage rate in his last two games, Sabonis has posted a 19/17.5/7 scoring line on 63.6% shooting. Now facing a Miami Heat defensive unit that will be without their two best defenders, including their interior defensive anchor in Bam Adebayo, Sabonis will certainly dominate the glass and be able to run a clean pick ‘n roll with Brogdon all night, making him an interesting pairing with Tyler Herro in a back-and-forth stack for tonight’s NBA slate.
Evan Mobley ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD)
A potential candidate for Rookie of the Year, Evan Mobley has been as dominant as any first-year player in the NBA. Sporting a 19.3% usage rate on the season, Mobley has posted a 14.5/8.2/2.6 scoring line on 49% shooting. However, what has been remarkable, has been Mobley’s transition from college to professional hoops, where his defensive talents have been simply astonishing; Mobley has multiple blocks in six straight games for the Cavaliers, who play the Wizards, coming into tonight with 4.4 blocks per game allowed to their opponents.
Honorable Mentions:
- Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,500 DK / $6,500 FD)
- Kevin Love ($5,100 DK / $5,300 FD)
Centers
- Jonas Valanciunas ($9,400 DK / $8,200 FD)
- Jarrett Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,000 FD)
Honorable Mentions:
- Since Bam Adebayo will be out for the next 4-6 weeks, despite not mentioning plays under 5K in these articles, Dwayne Dedmon ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)) will be in play every slate until Adebayo returns.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
