DFSGhost 
Only three games on tap today in the NBA but it does not come short of being just as wild as any other slate. The Charlotte Hornets have many players in COVID protocols, in addition to the Houston Rockets losing a key offensive weapon for their tilt against the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s a Seltzer Sunday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: There’s a handful of players available to us over the 9K range, while only one is over 10K; a balanced lineup is likely.
Adam: It may turn into a balanced night by default. With the Charlotte Hornets having Covid issues and Trae Young being listed as questionable, there may not be a player over $10,000 on DraftKings available to play. Furthermore, the $9,000 range is debatable if they are worth that salary.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Miles Bridges doesn’t necessarily qualify as a stud from a price perspective, but he’s my primary target at the top of the pricing grid right now. With LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, and Jalen McDaniels all placed in COVID protocols, Bridges will be counted on to play a heavy dose of minutes while leading the offense; with all these players off the court, despite the small sample size, Bridges sees an increase in FPPM from 1.06 to 1.19.
Adam: Spending in the $9,000 range may not be my favorite. The lone exception could be Christian Wood, since the Rockets are without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green. In that scenario, he has a 31.7% usage rate and 1.53 fantasy points per minute. Given the Rockets playing at the fastest pace in the league and Wood playing 34 minutes last game, he’s likely going to be a focus.
Also don’t forget Miles Bridges. The Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Mason Plumlee so Bridges is going to have a bigger share in the offense. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to play three Hornets on such a short slate.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Echoing Adam on this one, and it gives me tremendous pain to say that my boy Bradley Beal will not be in consideration for me tonight. Simply put, he just can’t seem to hit a shot over the last two weeks, and is notably shooting a horrendous 26.2% from behind the arc on the season.
Adam: Bradley Beal, and it makes me sad. He’s just not looking for his shot as much this season and while 20 shots per night is good, 23 per night from last season was better. It’s not that he’s suddenly a bad player but he’s not shown the same ceiling scoring under 23 points per night.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Miles Bridges and Armoni Brooks. You can see above for my Bridges reasoning, while Armoni Brooks will get the bulk of the duty as the Rockets’ primary ball handler with both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green on the sidelines.
Adam: Ish Smith and Wood. We’ve outlined why Wood is such a strong play but Smith is going to take the place of Ball in the starting lineup. While DraftKings did price him up to $4,800, that’s not high enough. He leads in minutes while Ball is off the court and has a 24.5% usage rate. The fantasy points per minute are only 0.79 but his true shooting rate is also just 37.8%.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Armoni Brooks goes for 10x value on this slate while having his best offensive performance of the season.
Adam: Clint Capela goes for the Barbara Walter Special (a 20/20 game) and scores virtually the same fantasy points as Wood for a cheaper salary.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
