Jared Levitt 
I am back this week after a birthday vacation last week. I missed week 15 due to my birthday on the 15th, so hopefully that is some sort of good omen as we head into week 16! If I were to pick a week to miss it would definitely be last week, as COVID was running rampant and resulted in games being either postponed or turned into ugly training camp scrimmages. Luckily, this week looks a bit better and despite having Saturday games we still have our typical 11 game main slate since no teams will be on a bye anymore for the rest of the season. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. We have toilet bowl round two this week, as the Jaguars travel up the East coast to face off against the pathetic franchise that is the New York Jets. I will of course be avoiding that game like the plague, however one garbage team that I do have some interest in is the Detroit Lions, as the Falcons defense is absolutely horrendous season after season. The problem there is that whole Covid thing, as Jared Goff tested positive on Monday so we are not sure if he will be able to play. Instead, I will be looking to get plenty of exposure to Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) on the other side of that game. This is of course a GPP-only type of play, as the Falcons offensive line has been so horrendous this season that poor Matt Ryan is forced to basically throw the ball within one second or take a sack. This is the perfect matchup to cure what ails this team though, as the Detroit Lions defensive line ranks 31st in the entire league in adjusted sack rate. The sack potential for this game on both sides of the ball is actually dead last of any game in week 16, so we should expect both signal callers to have plenty of time in the pocket. Not to mention, the lions rank 29th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. Sign me up for some Matty Ice shares at extremely reasonable prices on Sunday.
B. A quarterback that will likely be much more popular than Matt Ryan is Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD), however with that popularity comes a higher floor and ceiling combination. If you did not see JB’s quote about why the Bengals have been able to limit their Covid cases then you should go look it up because it is hilarious, but also very true. I digress, Cincinnati draws a week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens who have been uncharacteristically bad on the defensive side of the football this season, ranking just 27th in total DVOA. Baltimore does rank 5th in DVOA against the pass, so there is a chance that the masses avoid Burrow in this spot, given that the Ravens are much more susceptible to opposing rushing attacks, ranking just 25th in DVOA against the run. This game is expected to be very close as the spread is within a field goal, and points should also come into play in bunches given that we have the second highest implied total on the entire main slate in this spot. Few will expect a game between the Bengals and the Ravens to vie for the highest total of the week, so we should take advantage.
C. Our quarterback options honestly start to get quite ugly pretty quickly for the main slate, so the final QB that I will be targeting for tournaments is Derek Carr ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD). Carr has had a tumultuous season throughout 2021, with some shining moments and some rough spots. This is far from a slam dunk matchup, but he really is our third best option for this main slate. The Raiders will be taking on the Denver Broncos in another game that is very close to a pick ’em. The Broncos rank 21st in team DVOA, and 23rd in DVOA against the pass, while somehow managing to rank 4th in DVOA against opposing QBs. I certainly do not love this play, but the Raiders have easy options for us to stack with and they will be in what is likely one of the most competitive games on Sunday.
The Stacks
A. Well, I think it is about time that anyone who drafted Kyle Pitts early in their season-long drafts or rostered him on more than a few DFS lineups takes their L. Pitts is of course a rookie so this should be expected, but the way that many an analyst was talking about him before the season made it seem like he would come into the league and immediately be a top three tight end. Yes, the Falcons certainly hold him back, but boy has he not even come remotely close to living up to expectations. If we roster Matt Ryan, we need to find at least one Falcons skill position player to pair with him, and for me that top option is Russell Gage. While he tends to totally disappear at times, this game sets up to be one where Matty Ice can get him the ball. Cordarrelle Patterson seems to have fallen out of favor lately, which is the perfect time for us to hop back on the bus in what will be the best matchup he has drawn all season. On the Lions side of the ball, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been going off the last few weeks, but I can only roster him if Jared Goff is able to lead this team and get out of the Covid protocols. De’Andre Swift may also return this week, so as usual at this point in the season, we will need to keep a very close eye on the news heading into Sunday.
B. I feel much more comfortable with our stacking options to pair up with Joe Burrow, as his top three wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are all very talented pass-catchers. The issue is isolating which one or two of them are going to have a big game week to week. Chase is obviously the top dog here and someone that we should try to pair with Burrow whenever we can afford him, while Higgins and Boyd are more interchangeable in our Bengals stacks. Joe Mixon is another question mark that we will need to keep an eye on, but if he is a full go then I am fine including him in Burrow lineups as well. On the Ravens side of this game, Mark Andrews continues to show us why he is a top three tight end in the NFL along with Kittle and Kelce. Marquise Brown has been very quite but his price has come all the way down to $5.8K, so he is an amazing bring-back option for us at what should be very low ownership.
C. To close things out on week 16, we have another player that may or may not play in Darren Waller, which we will have to monitor closely. If he does play, then he is an excellent tournament play at what should yet again be low ownership. If he is out, we can continue to target Hunter Renfrow who had a down game last week but should bounce back nicely in a competitive game at home. Josh Jacobs is another RB that I do not mind pairing with his quarterback, as he catches passes and is a major part of this offense. On the Broncos side, Jerry Jeudy looked like he could not even move last week, so I am way off of him as a viable DFS option. Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton are perfectly fine options that will save us some salary, but Javonte Williams is clearly the most talented skill position player on this team by miles. Melvin Gordon lingering definitely hurts him, but he is a viable bring-back option for us if we stack this game. Just keep in mind, this game does have a total floating down near the 40 mark, so we should tread relatively lightly.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
