DFSGhost 
A few mismatches on this NBA slate but there are two games that stand above the rest. Additionally, the Warriors will likely be getting the bulk of their rotation back, while the league’s top three teams, all in the Western Conference, take the court. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets (+4)
I’ll be as clear as I can for this game: if you do not get exposure to it, you will not win money on tonight’s NBA slate. It’s that simple. Putting aside the fact that this game has the highest total on the board by ten points, it grades out ridiculously well in terms of advanced statistics. Ranking 3rd and 11th in pace, respectively, the Hornets and Nets both struggle on the defensive end in addition to their quick style of play, sitting 20th and 23rd in net defensive rating, respectively.
Brooklyn Nets (-4)
I’ll be starting my NBA lineups with Kevin Durant tonight. In two games since returning from injury, KD has sported a 35.8% usage rate and has posted back-to-back 30-point outings, en route to a 34/5/6 scoring line on 52.4% shooting. This last stretch for the Nets reeks of “Save us, KD!” and tonight, versus a Hornets team that simply cannot put things together in their own half of the court, one of the all-time greats will takeover.
Charlotte Hornets (+4)
I’m certainly not forcing a run back in this one, but there are a few intriguing targets, beginning with none other than LaMelo Ball, who is wildly underpriced. The Hornets need to have a good end to their season in order to secure home court in the first round of the play-in games, and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll run LaMelo into the ground to get there. Ranking 23rd in 3PM allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, including 25th in both points allowed and rebounds allowed to primary ball handlers, the Nets will have their hands full with one of the league’s best young talents.
For tournaments on this NBA slate, I have interest in the Hornets bench, as well. The duo of PJ Washington and Montrezl Harrell both carry upside as small-ball centers versus a Nets squad that sits 18th in the league in points in the paint allowed per game. I can’t foresee Mason Plumlee getting a ton of run versus the likes of Andre Drummond or Nic Claxton, leading to both sides playing their skilled forwards at the ‘5’. Harrell, who has now played nine games with the Hornets since being acquired from the Wizards, has averaged 14.2 PPG off the bench in only 26 MPG, and carries immense upside at his price tag.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)
The rest of the NBA needs to be careful, because the Pelicans are picking up steam since their acquisition of CJ McCollum. Whether Zion Williamson makes his return to the lineup this season, if ever at all in New Orleans, certainly remains to be seen, but either way, they look tremendous on the offensive side of the ball.
New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)
While CJ McCollum comes at a pretty penny on tonight’s NBA slate, it is more than justified. The newest addition to the Pelicans has now suited up for ten games with his new team, where they are not only much more competitive, but also getting career-high production from their new point guard. McCollum has posted a whopping 26.1/5.7/6.1 scoring line on 51.8% shooting, logging nearly 36 minutes per night. He is not the only intriguing target, however, especially if you are targeting two ~8k players to pair with Durant. Brandon Ingram as been on a year as of late, scoring 30 or more points in two of his last three, with the other being a 29-point outing. With Memphis still missing their best defender in Dillon Brooks, Ingram could wreck havoc against the likes of Ziaire Williams and Kyle Anderson.
Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5)
While I praise New Orleans for the improvements they have made on the offensive side of the ball, their defense has not improved whatsoever since acquiring McCollum. To be precise, they have a 111.4 net defensive rating in McCollum’s ten games this season, which would rank them 20th in the NBA on a season-long basis. Thus, there is plenty to love about Ja Morant tonight, who has been enjoying a breakout campaign. While I dodged the two letdown games at high rostership in his last two, tonight is a different story with most avoiding this game altogether in favor of other studs. With the Pelicans ranking 26th in the league in scoring allowed to opposing primary ball handlers, expect a statement game from Morant as the Grizzlies try to hold down the #2 seed in the West.
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