DFSGhost 
With only four teams taking the court yesterday, including the first matchup between Brooklyn and Philadelphia since the James Harden-Ben Simmons deal, tonight’s action is the first of three busy days in the NBA. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans (+2)
I’ll keep this one short since it will be a game that the majority of the field flocks to, and rightfully so. With both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram out for the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas will likely be one of, if not the highest rostered player on this NBA slate. In the absence of his two teammates, Valanciunas sees a 2.4% increase in usage rate, but only a 0.02 FPPM increase. The matchup versus a Hornets defense that ranks 26th in both scoring and rebounding to opposing centers is one that is awfully enticing, but I’d advise against building your tournament lineups with the trio of Devonte’ Graham, Jose Alvarado, and Jonas Valanciunas together since the majority of the field will likely do so.
With Vegas projected this one as a close game, you’ll want exposure to the Hornets offense in some fashion. The trio of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges are all underpriced in their respective individual matchups, especially when you consider the talented backcourt now facing the likes of Graham and Alvarado, who have defensive ratings of 115.3 and 108.3, respectively. The upside is there with Ball, as we all know, but look for Rozier to score in bunches, as he has led the team with 54 FGA over their last three games.
New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies (-9.5)
While this game will go completely overlooked thanks to the one analyzed above, it’s one that I certainly have on my radar for tournaments on this NBA slate. With Kemba Walker and Cam Reddish out for the season, in addition to Nerlens Noel and Derrick Rose still nursing serious injuries, the Knicks are down to an awfully thin rotation. Both RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are priced up, but the backcourt duo of Alec Burks and Immanuel Quickley are both underpriced for the number of minutes they’ll play tonight. More specifically, Quickley has now seen 20 or more minutes in his last six games, where he’s sporting a 21.1% usage rate and has posted a 17/6/3.5 scoring line on 49.2% shooting.
If you’re playing chalk (highly rostered) Jose Alvarado and/or Devonte’ Graham just to load up on more chalk “studs” in the 8k range, you’re doing it wrong. You need to capture upside of one, if not multiple players that can lead an NBA slate in scoring, such as Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Dejounte Murray, Trae Young, and, the player featured in this game, Ja Morant. Having the best campaign of his young NBA career, Morant has turned it up even more since the All-Star break, sporting a 37% usage rate in seven games while posting a 32.4/5.6/5.3 scoring line on 50% shooting, scoring 20+ points in all seven outings.
Honorable Mentions:
- Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns (-6.5)
- Washington Wizards @ LA Lakers (-4.5)
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