DFSGhost 
Tonight’s NBA slate will surely look different as we approach lock, with multiple teams on the second half of a back-to-back while others have unclear injury reports at the time of writing. For now, let’s dive into our preview; it’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
New Orleans Pelicans @ Charlotte Hornets (-7)
Two teams battling for positioning in the Play-In picture of the NBA playoffs, the Pelicans and Hornets both desperately need this win tonight. Despite Brandon Ingram (hamstring) being listed as questionable tonight, he did not travel with the team to San Antonio, meaning the offense will likely be up to CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas tonight. In addition, Devonte’ Graham (hip) sat out yesterday’s game, and even if he makes his return to the lineup on the second half of a back-to-back, I have interest in both McCollum and Valanciunas in their respective individual matchups.
McCollum has now posted 20 or more points in seven straight for the Pelicans, sporting a 30.4% usage rate and has posted a 25.4/4.7/7.6 scoring line on 49% shooting. Despite the foul trouble against the Spurs, Valanciunas turned in a 26/12/4 performance against Clint Capela yesterday, and if he’s able to stay out of foul trouble against Mason Plumlee, he’ll be in for a big night against a Hornets frontcourt that ranks 26th and 24th in the NBA in scoring and rebounding, respectively, to opposing skilled big men.
The Hornets are fairly priced tonight, so I’m not forcing a run back in this game. However, the trio of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges will all be in for big minutes, if you can stomach paying north of 8K for one of the three. On such a big NBA slate, Montrezl Harrell will go virtually unrostered, and if you think Plumlee gets into trouble early on versus Valanciunas, Harrell will benefit versus a Pelicans frontcourt that sits 24th in the NBA in scoring to opposing skilled big men.
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5)
We can’t truly identify the elite targets in this game before final injury reports are released, but the game environment itself screams playoff atmosphere between two of the Eastern Conference’s best. Miami has listed Jimmy Butler (ankle) as questionable, while Philadelphia may rest one of Embiid or Harden on the second half of a back-to-back.
Should Butler sit this one out, Herro becomes an interesting tournament play. On such a large NBA slate, most will shy away from the lofty price tag, but the favorite for 6MOY has simply been electric off the bench this season. Having scored 20 or more points in 11 of his last 12 games, Herro sports a ridiculous 29.2% usage rate off the bench during that span, posting a 25.4/4.8/3.5 scoring line along the way.
Miami’s defense is as good as it gets in the NBA, both on the perimeter and on the inside, but the duo of Harden and Embiid are two of the best offensive players the league has to offer. With Embiid off the court, Harden’s splits are outright ridiculous: his usage rate jumps from 25.5% to 37.8%, while his FPPM jumps from 1.31 to 1.67. Despite Miami’s elite defense, Harden at $10,000 makes no sense, should Embiid sit this one out. Wait for the news (if any) and act accordingly.
Honorable Mentions:
- LA Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5)
- Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)
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