Dave Gloeckner 
Easter Sunday brings us a full card of baseball to choose from today. I’m going to assess the main card which starts at 1:05 pm today and gives us 10 games to choose from.
Last night we saw one of the best pitching performances this year as Justin Verlander recorded 35.6 DK points by going 8 innings and allowing 0 ERs. In the hitting market, Angles stacks paid off as Ohtani hit his 3rd home run in 2 games and registered 30 DK points.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Prop plays are +7.3 units
PITCHERS – MLB DFS PLAYS
MAIN SLATE
ALEK MANOAH ($10,000 DK) – Toronto Blue Jays pitching has been a big reason the team is off to an underwhelming start to the 2022 season. Overall, their staff ERA is 4.67 which is 24th in the league and their starting rotation ERA is even worse, 6.14, which puts them at 27th overall out of 30 teams. And that includes a gem of a start from Alek Monoah in his first outing this season at Yankee stadium. The young right handed pitcher flashed amazing stuff as he whiffed 7 Yankees on his way to 6 innings with 0 ER’s and only 1 hit allowed. His walk rate was extremely high and is still a concern going forward but if you get a whiff percentage above 40% on three of your four pitches, then you are effectively wild and keeping hitters off balance. Today he gets an Oakland team that has a team batting average of 0.226 which is 19th in the MLB. What’s even more attractive is the A’s are 4th in K% with a whiff rate of 26.8%. I like the matchup of a power pitcher versus a lineup that has overperformed to date and will strike out at a high rate.
ALEX WOOD ($9,500 DK) – The Giants have allowed just 3 runs over their first two games in Cleveland. The MLB’s hottest offense has cooled off considerably against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Next up for the Guardians is left-hander Alex Wood. The Guardians are hitting just 0.234 against LHP, down from their overall average of 0.281. Just two days ago, left-hander Carlos Rodon threw a gem against these same Guardians. This all adds up to a favorable match-up for Wood and one where I expect to see him go 6 innings or more. Add in the fact that his K rate was at 30% in his first start (up from 26% last season) and I think Wood will be one of the top performers on today’s card.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
MICHAEL WACHA ($6200 DK) – The Red Sox right-handed pitcher had a decent outing in his first start of the 2022 season. He allowed 1 ER over 4.1 innings against the Detroit Tigers. He threw more of his off-speed offerings than he did his fastball which is consistent with how he pitched in 2021. The key for Wacha has been keeping the ball in the park as he has trended towards a 2.0 HR/9 inning rate the past 2 seasons. But today he gets a Minnesota Twins team that is near the bottom in batting average (0.189) and home runs (10). They are (likely) without their star at the top of the order in Byron Buxton (doubtful) as he went down with a knee injury on Friday. I like Wacha’s match-up today and think he has good value to put up > 2x points against a weak hitting Twins lineup.
HITTERS – MLB DFS PLAYS
NIGHT SLATE
BRYCE HARPER ($5000 DK) – The Phillies offense finally broke out yesterday as they plated 10 runs against the Marlins. At the heart of that was Bryce Harper as he stole home in the first inning to propel a stagnant offense to their highest output of the young season. Bryce has been known as a fast starter, often having a great month in April. But that hasn’t been the case in 2022 as he has been striking out at an alarming rate. However, today Harper gets a pitcher in Elisier Hernandez that he’s had success against hitting 0.400 with 2 home runs in 12 at bats. Hernandez has started 4 games in his career against the Phillies and allowed 6 home runs. And this Phillies lineup is stronger than years past. Start Harper and consider a Phillies stack today against the Marlins.
AARON JUDGE ($4400 DK) – We played Judge in our props game this week and fared well. The Yankees slugger isn’t tearing the cover off the ball but in recent games he has several hard hit balls. And today he gets Bruce Zimmermann, the soft throwing lefty from Baltimore, who he is 3 for 4 with 2 home runs against. Zimmermann had a good 1st start against the Brewers but his expected outcome was worse than the 0 ER’s allowed. Additionally, Zimmermann saw the Yankees twice last year and allowed 3 home runs in 8.2 innings. Someone from the pinstripes is putting a ball in the outfield seats at Camden Yards and I’m putting my stake behind Aaron Judge based on his recent play and past performance against the Orioles starter..
SLAP HITTER (VALUE BATTER)
SPENCER TORKLESON ($2900 DK) – The Tigers young phenom is starting to rake. He is 6 for his last 19 with 2 home runs. And the DFS market still prices him below $3000. Today he gets to face Carlos Hernandez who has an 8.31 ERA to open the 2022 season. Even better, Torkleson has moved up to 6th in the lineup which gives him a few opportunities at Hernandez.
JAKE MARISNICK ($2300 DK) – The Pirates leadoff hitter has great value in today’s card as we’re getting him against a pitcher he hits well against. In his career against Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, Marisnick is 6 for 10. And over the past 4 games the Pirates have averaged 6 runs per game. Combine all these factors; a hot lineup, a struggling pitcher, past performance and a leadoff man at $2300. That screams value to me!
PROP BETS
WANDER FRANCO Trifecta (over 0.5 hits (-230), total bases over 1.5 (+150), home run (+750)) – The Rays star has been hitting well so far to start his 2022 campaign. Wander Franco is 7th in the AL in batting at 0.378. The problem has been is he only has 4 extra base hits out of his 14 total hits. But his barrel % is way up from 2021 (8.8% versus 4.9%) and his hard hit % is up as well (47.1% versus 37.6%). And today he gets Vince Velasquez who is infamous for allowing hard contact. I feel like today is the day we cash in on Wander and will play all his hitting props.
TIM ANDERSON over 0.5 hits (-225 DK) – The White Sox leadoff is raking the ball. He is batting 0.440 which is 3rd in the AL. He has 11 total hits in 6 games with 4 multi hit games. Batting leadoff allows us exposure to a minimum of 4 at bats which gives us the necessary odds needed to play a -225 bet. We’ve adjusted our approach here today and are looking at recent play to be the biggest factor in our prop bets.
ALEK MONOAH over 6.5 K’s (-140 DK) – We’re playing Manoah in DFS and love his K prop as well. He struck out 7 in his first outing and is facing a team that whiffs at ~27%. If he can keep his walk rate low today, I expect 6+ innings from the Jays young starter which puts us right at good value for his K prop.
Now that you finished reading this article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games.
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