Dave Gloeckner 
Week 14 was a confounding week for RB’s as we saw just 6 backs go for more than 20 DK points. And 6 of the top 12 RB’s had ownership values of 2% or less (McKinnon, Mack, Hubbard, Dobbins, etc). But Week 15 is here and brings us some juicy running matchups that we’re eager to pounce on.
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As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
DERRICK HENRY $8000 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel
Derrick Henry got back to his King ways last week as he rushed for over 100 yards for the first time in 5 weeks. While the Titans lost their 3rd game in a row to the Jags, it’s obvious they need to re-focus their offensive game plan to get Henry the ball more. He’s seen just an average 17.5 touches per game in their 3 game losing streak. But this week they face the Chargers who are 28th against the run allowing 147 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee’s offense is just 20th in rush DVOA but when Henry has faced a rushing defense in the bottom half of the league in DVOA, he’s averaging 21.1 DK points per game. With this game being played in LA, and no real threat of bad weather, this projects to be a big game for the NFL’s 2nd leading rusher.
JOSH JACOBS $8100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
Josh Jacobs is in a groove at the perfect time for season long fantasy owners. He’s put up an average game score of 27.9 points over the last 5 weeks. And he’s now the leading fantasy scorer for RB’s in the league. While he got dinged up last game against the Rams, he was able to finish. Additionally, that was a Thursday night game so he’s had some extra days to heal. He faces New England this week and they allow the 2nd least points to RB’s in the league. But they did just allow 23.4 fantasy points to James Conner on MNF. And they’ve allowed some big games to RB’s earlier in the season (i.e. Aaron Jones) but have not seen much quality at that position as not one team in the AFC East has a rusher in the top 18 in the league!
So don’t fear the matchup but instead take the consistent runner who will be able to put up points as long as he’s healthy heading into this game.
TONY POLLARD $7100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
This is the first time all season that Tony Pollard has made the Tier 1 price range as he shot over $7K for Week 15. But that won’t stop us from riding the Pollard train as he continues to produce big numbers week in and week out. Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, Pollard has averaged 25.2 DK points and that’s over a span of 7 games. His carries went down last week but that’s because they got off script with the Texans hanging in the game. The Cowboys face Jacksonville this week who allow the 10th most points to RB’s and are 16th in the league in rush DVOA. Pollard should be able to once again find space and score from distance which will ultimately lead to another big day for the Dallas RB.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
JAMES CONNER $6900 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel
Kyler Murray’s injury soured a night and game that the Cardinals should have won on Monday vs. New England. But it’s now Colt McCoy’s team which should mean it’s a more balanced running game for the Cardinals. James Conner has looked good all year but in particular the last two games where he’s rushed for 205 yards on 40 carries. He’s facing the Broncos this week who just allowed 34 points to the Chiefs and 35.4 DK points to RB Jerrick McKinnon. The Broncos have allowed an average of 123 yards rushing per game over the past month. I believe Conner will find space in the running game but also be very effective in the passing game which will put him in prime position to have a big game on Sunday.
ALVIN KAMARA $6800 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Kamara has been one of the biggest busts of this fantasy season. He has only 550 yards rushing in 12 games and surpassed 62 yards in a game just twice. But have some faith because today he has the Falcons and the potential for a huge game. Let’s remember, Kamara gave us two huge games this year and the “milli-maker” lineups rostered him those weeks. So the potential is there, the opponent is there and the price is good. Atlanta is 28th in rush defense DVOA and allows the 20th most points to RB’s. They’ve allowed a rusher to go for 85 yards or more in 5 straight games. And the Saints still have a small glimpse of playoff life so they’ll play with urgency which should mean a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara today.
MILES SANDERS $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
Miles Sanders polished off the Giants last week and also put a bow on his season. He ran for 144 yards which put him at 1068 yards on the year making it his first 1000 yard season. And now he gets to face the weak rushing defense of the Chicago Bears who rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. The only negative with Sanders is that he isn’t a factor in the passing game as he has just 18 receptions this year (41st amongst RB’s). But this game shapes up to be similar to the Green Bay game a few weeks ago where the Eagles focus on the run and try to dominate the line of scrimmage versus an undermanned defense. And just so you know, Sanders ran for 143 yards and 34 DK points versus Green Bay. Smash the Sanders button this week.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5600 FanDuel $6600
The Chiefs rookie RB has been a steady contributor in the last month averaging 14.9 DK points in his last 4 games. While Jerrick McKinnon turned into the fantasy superstar last week, Pacheco still had 13 carries for 70 yards and saw 47% of the snaps. But that game turned into more of an aerial event than predicted due to Denver’s success against the KC defense. I don’t see that happening this week with Houston. The Chiefs should be able to create separation and then rely on the running game to close it out. And that will be a perfect game plan for Pacheco against the league’s 32nd ranked run defense in the Texans. Don’t sleep on the momentum Pacheco has built up in the last month as I like him much more than McKinnon this week.
ZONOVAN KNIGHT DraftKings $4600 FanDuel $6400
Even though Michael Carter returned last week, Zonovan Knight had 17 carries to Carter’s 5. The snap count was actually in Carter’s favor though as he outsnapped Knight 50% to 47%. But this week is the return of Zach Wilson and I believe we could see both back have a solid game today. That’s because the Jets will not go crazy in the passing game due to the lack of trust they have in Wilson. And their opponent, Detroit, is allowing the 26th most rushing yards in the league. I’ll put my trust in Knight and his recent production (15.3 fantasy ppg) against a team that has historically been soft against RB’s.
NFL DFS BONUS PICKS
My bonus pick this week is anyone healthy in New England’s backfield. It’s looking like RHAMONDRE STEVENSON ($6900 DK) will miss the game. So if that’s the case I’m looking at PIERRE STRONG ($4000 DK) to have a big game against a soft Raiders D. Las Vegas is 18th in rush defense DVOA and would be worse except for the fact they are 32nd in pass defense DVOA. We know New England’s recipe to win is to create turnovers on and run the ball on O. And while they’re doing that, they like to showcase players you’ve never heard of. Which is exactly where Strong falls in as he comes from the Roadrunners of South Dakota State as a 4th round pick in the 2022 draft. So let’s roll with the unknown and maybe see a $4K RB pop along the way.
RB PROP BETS
MILES SANDERS Anytime TD (-125 DK)
ISIAH PACHECO anytime TD (-110 DK)
Now that you finished reading the NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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