by Dave Gloeckner

That was a fun Opening Day of baseball for many. My bankroll doesn’t agree as I only hit 2 props yesterday. But those days happen and what was really important is that baseball won yesterday. The new rules led to faster games; 26 minutes shorter than last year’s average. The average length was 2 hours and 45 minutes and I think that will lessen as pitcher’s get stretched out. In all, faster baseball is better and more enjoyable for everyone! Even when you lose.

Back to the grind today and looking to rebound. After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

MOOKIE BETTS over 0.5 runs (+100 DK)

Mookie Betts tied for the NL lead in runs scored in 2022. And that was with missing 20 games due to nagging injuries. He started off 2023 with 0 hits but drew a walk and came around to score a run from a Will Smith single. Tonight he faces Merrill Kelly who he’s reached base 10 times in 26 plate appearances. And the fact we get plus money on this prop is even more enticing. My model has Mookie scoring a run in 60% of simulations so this is good EV and the reason we like this particular prop tonight.

YORDAN ALVAREZ over 0.5 HR’s (+300 Caesers)

I have futures on Yordan to lead the league in Home Runs in 2023. And he started off this season on the right foot (literally) by homering on Opening Day off Reynaldo Lopez. While I like Lance Lynn, and think he’ll have a decent game, he did allow 1.41 HR/9 in 2022. The only pitcher with a higher rate on today’s slate is Robbie Ray at 1.56 HR/9. And Alvarez has Lynn in his book with 1 career HR in 12 at-bats off the big RHP.

PITCHER PROPS

LANCE LYNN over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)

Lance Lynn finished the 2022 season with a 2.41 ERA over the last 2+ months. He really started to dial it in after making his debut in the middle of the season. And he’s taken that into 2023 by striking out 18 batters over 14.1 innings in spring training. Don’t forget, Lynn also pitched well in the WBC helping the US beat Venezuela in an elimination game. I like the fact that he’s had valuable innings (much like Ohtani) and think that will give him in an upper edge today against Houston. Additionally, the Astros did strike out 13 times on Opening Day.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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