by Dave Gloeckner

I can’t believe it’s been a week since I posted props on Discord and almost 2 weeks since a Gophers & Gas article. But back to our regular scheduled program and I’ll be posting more of these here and in Discord.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

ANDREW MCCUTCHEN over 2.5 hits+runs+rbi (+110 DK)

Cutch is playing well and he gets a great spot tonight in Coors against Jose Urena. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 5 games. And he finds himself hitting 3rd in the lineup in a prime spot behind Brian Reynolds. All this adds up to a positive EV and worth playing the high number today.

VLADIMIR GUERRERO over 0.5 RBI (+135 DK) & over 1.5 total bases (-105 DK)

The Blue Jays slugger has great numbers off Astros SP Jose Urquidy. In his career he is 5 for 12 and has struck out just once. And he’s been hitting the ball hard lately posting a 48% hard hit rate over the past 10 games.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ over 0.5 HR’s (+400 DK)

We’re going to go against Brewers SP Colin Rea as he has a 50% Fly Ball rate and a 20% HR/FB percentage. And who better to take advantage of that than Julio Rodriguez who has increased his flyball rate by ~10%.

YORDAN ALVAREZ over 0.5 HR’s (+290 DK)

Blue Jays SP Chris Bassit has been bit by the home run ball this year allowing 5 on the year in 3 starts. Bring in Yordan Alvarez who has 4 HR’s of his own on the season. He also has a 38% fly ball rate this season which is 30% higher than his career numbers.

PITCHER PROPS

CHRIS SALE over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)

I talked about Sales struggles in The Sweet Spot article today. But also highlighted those issues could be coming to an end as he’s been bit by some bad luck. The Twins struck out 32 times in a 3 game series in NY over the weekend and are 4th in K rate this season.

LOGAN GILBERT over 6.5 K’s (-105 DK)

I’d like to see the line at 5.5 but I’m still comfortable at 6.5. Gilbert has 20 K’s so far this season and two of those matchups were against the Guardians who were the hardest team to strike out in 2022. The one game he didn’t face the Guardians, he racked up 9 K’s versus the Cubs. And now he gets another NL Central team in the Brewers who are 12th in K rate in the MLB.

TAJ BRADLEY over 4.5 K’s (-130 DK)

The Rays young hurler gets his 2nd career start today against the Reds. Cincy strikes out at the 8th highest rate in the league. And Taj gets the advantage as there is not much tape on his stuff. He’s also coming off a game with 8 K’s and 9 whiffs. This is a good spot to attack for bettors.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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