Dave Gloeckner 
by Dave Gloeckner
It’s a beautiful Saturday to bet baseball. And we have some really attractive spots to attack today. So far this week we are 8-5 and +3.25 units (lost all plus bets this week). So let’s build on that today and add some money to our bankroll.
After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.
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BATTER PROPS
KYLE TUCKER over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-120 DK)
I’m using last night’s line as the line on Tucker for today isn’t released just yet. But here’s what I’m tracking, Tucker has the 4th highest WARP in baseball and the 6th highest DRC+. And he’s facing someone who he is 3 for 6 in his career off of in Kyle Wright. Also, Wright has been curveball heavy in his first two starts throwing that pitch at a 51% clip. Tucker is batting 0.333 off curveballs this year including 1 home run.
GIO URSHELA over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-120 DK)
We like to attack Zack Greinke on the road. He has not won on the road since 2021 (0-8 in that span) and has a 5.42 ERA over the past 2 seasons away from home. He’s also allowed 14 home runs in 15 starts on the road since the beginning of 2022. In that same period, he’s allowed just 2 home runs at home. So simply put, attack Greinke tonight and one batter’s props I will play are Gio Urshela’s. The Angels SS is 9 for 21 in his career off the Royals RHP. But more importantly, he’s struck out just once in 23 plate appearances. So he puts the ball in play which should lead to productivity tonight.
FREDDIE FREEMAN over 1.5 bases (-105 DK)
Cubs SP Hayden Wesneski has a 33.75 ERA at home. Now that will come back down but as long as we see struggles we’re going to attack Wesneski at home. Additionally, left handed batters are 0.429 with a 1.262 OPS against Wesneski. In comes one of the best hitters in baseball giving us a prime opportunity to bet a favorable matchup.
FERNANDO TATIS JR over 0.5 HR’s (+250 DK)
Tatis is back after completing his suspension for PED’s. In his first 2 games, he’s looked off as he’s just 1 for 9. But tonight he gets Merrill Kelly who he has 3 career home runs off of in just 18 at-bats.
MAX KEPLER over 0.5 HR’s (+650 DK)
Nationals SP Chad Kuhl has allowed a home run in every start this year and has a total of 4 gopher balls given up. So we’re looking to attack him and roster a Minnesota Twin today. After crunching numbers, I’m going with Max Kepler. His power dwindled over the past 2 seasons. But this year, he has changed his swing and as he’s increased his fly ball rate by almost 40% (34% in 2022 to 48.3% in 2023). The hits have not happened as he’s batting below 0.200 but we can see he’s sacrificed that to get more balls in the air. And his hard hit rate is 2nd on the team at over 44%. So let’s roll with it today as his peripherals in my model show he this HR prop has 2x value.
PITCHER PROPS
DYLAN CEASE over 2.5 BB’s (+130 DK)
It’s a new season but Dylan Cease is still struggling with control. His K rate and ERA are still tops in the league but he has a 12% walk rate and has gone over this number in 2 of his 3 starts. He faced Tampa twice last year and issued 9 walks in 10.1 innings of work. I like plus money and think there’s value here based on past history and Tampa having a walk rate ranked at 12th best in league.
DAVID PEDERSON over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)
Peterson has 22 K’s in 20.1 innings of work this year. He hasn’t had less than 5 K’s in a start yet. And today he faces the Giants who are 3rd in baseball in K rate versus LHP’s as they strike out 30% of the time against southpaws.
SHINATARO FUJINAMI over 3.5 K’s (-150 DK)
The A’s are terrible at baseball and will soon be off to Vegas where hopefully they can bring in money and build a winner. So part of being terrible is that you can have a longer leash with pitchers to see what you got. And that’s what I think we’ll see today with Fujinami. First, he’s actually gotten progressively better in each start and he reached 6 innings and had 5 K’s versus the Mets in his last start. Secondly, the Rangers strike out at a 22% clip. So this looks like a matchup we can attack as we see progression as well as a lineup with K potential.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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