Despite there being a seemingly large player pool for tonight’s NBA slate, there are a few teams that are not only running thin, but will be without their best offensive players. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Teams to Consider
San Antonio Spurs
As they get their franchise player back in Dejounte Murray, the Spurs are suddenly without many of their surrounding role players. Fellow backcourt run mate Derrick White was placed in health and safety protocols, in addition to Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Doug McDermott, and Thad Young, while Lonnie Walker remains questionable due to conditioning. This should be a surprise to no one, but Dejounte Murray is primed to be an elite target on this NBA slate, where he is fresh off a 22/9/12 near triple-double in his first game back from health and safety protocols, where he sported a 34.1% usage rate on the night in nearly 33 minutes of action.
Utah Jazz
While the Utah Jazz were able to be the healthiest team in the NBA for quite some time now, including last game with the majority of their roster playing despite being tagged as questionable, tonight, they are without nearly every offensive player in their deep rotation. All of Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, and Joe Ingles have already been ruled out, while Rudy Gay, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale, and Hassan Whiteside are currently questionable. Count it – that is a whopping nine players either out or questionable to play tonight, meaning they are primed to be a top target on the slate, as a whole. Should he play, Jordan Clarkson will be a priority on both sites, while the model will point us in the direction of which value plays stand out above the rest. We could be looking at two to three Jazz in our NBA lineups tonight, but you will have to roster a minimum of one no matter what, and even that might not be enough versus a Raptors team that essentially runs a 7-man rotation nightly.
Milwaukee Bucks
In a premier matchup against a potential playoff opponent, Milwaukee will likely be getting their franchise player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, back in the lineup, but it does not come with the players he is used to taking the court with. Brook Lopez remains out with a serious back injury, but he’s been out for quite some time now; truth be told, the major news we got is that Jrue Holiday has landed in health and safety protocols and will be out for this game, in addition to George Hill, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and Donte DiVincenzo. Should he play after missing last game with an illness, Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a priority at the top of the pricing grid, while Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis make for intriguing targets in the mid range, although I’ll likely be passing on them for a value play to pair with Giannis, such as Jordan Nwora.
Dallas Mavericks
In addition to Kristaps Porzingis being out for their game against the Houston Rcokets, the Dallas Mavericks will also likely be without their franchise player in Luka Doncic, who is currently listed as doubtful. While there are plenty of minutes to go around in the frontcourt for Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber, my focus will be on the Mavericks backcourt with Jalen Brunson in what could end up being an overlooked spot considering the number of players that are unavailable to us on this NBA slate. Moreover, you can always form a mini stack in this one, which has sneaky shootout appeal pending updates in Discord tomorrow from the morning run of the Game Environment Expected Total (GEET) tool. If doing so, Christian Wood is once again underpriced and will feast on a Mavericks frontcourt that already allows over 53 FPPG to opposing centers.
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