NFL DFS Week 18 – Cash Game and GPP Checkdown

Huge Week 17 from the Win Daily Team!!! Congratulations to everyone who destroyed the slate. So many screenshots and so many 4-digit screenshots! Welcome back to the Week 18 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown, let’s stay hot. Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. With a lot of uncertainty in this slate, this will be a combined article.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Cash Game Pool:

• Josh Allen – best matchup on the slate for a QB who will certainly be playing to win. There are some weather concerns but the safety with Allen’s legs of late make him a smash cash game play.
  
• Tom Brady – the Bucs literally do not have a quality running back healthy and we know Brady and company are going to be on a mission to change the narrative regarding their team’s recent “issues”. Carolina’s pass defense is nothing special and with the likely 40+ pass attempt volume from Tom Brady, he’s a cash game staple again in Week 18.
  
• Matt Stafford – despite the recent struggles the fantasy points are still plentiful for what we need in a cash game lineup. A matchup at home against a pass-funnel defense of San Francisco makes Stafford my favorite quarterback to roster in NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups.

GPP Pool:

• Ryan Tannehill – I’m hoping the ownership numbers drop significantly for Tannehill (currently projected for 10% ownership on Saturday morning), but I’m mainly looking for teams who will not pull their foot off the gas pedal, and the Titans fit that narrative. Fading the D’Onta Foreman chalk and leveraging that with the Titans’ passing attack with a Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins run-back sounds intriguing.
  
• Taysom Hill – too cheap and the Saints must win. Lot of rushing upside and the passing game has actually been solid.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray

NFL DFS Running Backs

• James Conner – no Chase Edmonds this week.
  
• Alvin Kamara – another sub-10% week of Alvin Kamara
  
• Jonathan Taylor – the Colts need to win and will ride Taylor against the putrid Jacksonville defense.
  
• Devonta Freeman – 1% owned, cheap, dual-threat running back against the Steelers 27th ranked run defense.
  
• Devin Singletary – double-digit home favorite against the Jets 26th ranked run defense (DVOA) and #1 matchup for fantasy points against.
  
• David Montgomery – week in, week out we talk about the usage for David Montgomery and the fantasy salary remains roughly the same. Too cheap for a dual-threat running back who doesn’t leave the field.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Sony Michel, D’Onta Foreman, Eli Mitchell, Rashaad Penny

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Cooper Kupp – this one is easy. You lock him in cash and probably your top choice in GPP lineups as well. We all know about the record(s) Kupp can achieve and this is a game the Rams want to win and will do so via the pass.
  
• Christian Kirk – way too cheap against Ugo Amadi and the inside of this Seattle secondary.
  
• Mike Evans – sub-5% owned WR1 for one of my favorite quarterbacks on this slate. Evans is also going for his 8th consecutive 1000-yard season.
  
• AJ Brown / Brandin Cooks – AJ Brown is a freak of nature and someone we want to play when he’s healthy and in a solid matchup. Sunday brings us that exact situation with Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King in coverage. Brandin Cooks on the other side is an excellent run-back and fits the AETY Model’s favorite situation of being a slot receiver against the Titans.
  
• Marvin Jones / Laquon Treadwell – same matchup we loved Zay Jones in last week. The only difference here is both of these wide receivers are more expensive than Zay Jones was last week and the whole Trevor Lawrence as the quarterback throwing the ball.

Honorable Mention: Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Cyril Grayson, Jakobi Meyers

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• George Kittle
• Mark Andrews
• John Bates
• Rob Gronkowski
• Zach Ertz
• Tyler Higbee

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

• Indianapolis Colts
• Buffalo Bills
• Washington Football Team
• Cleveland Browns
• Detroit Lions

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.