DFSGhost 
Plenty of star-studded matchups on tonight’s NBA slate, but there is one game in particular that will go overlooked while being the crown jewel of the slate. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)
While there is plenty to love in the first game on the NBA slate between the Grizzlies and the 76ers, especially at the top of the pricing grid in Joel Embiid and Ja Morant, the Raptors/Hawks game will be a track meet that we need exposure to. Trae Young leads the charge for the Hawks, who are on a 7-game winning streak; the pass-first point guard comes into tonight’s matchup with a 35.9% usage rate on this run, while posting a 28.4/4.7/9.1 scoring line on 44% shooting, including 42% from behind the arc. Otherwise, the Hawks are getting healthy and have a eight players that will likely see close to, if not 20 minutes, in addition to both Lou Williams and Delon Wright as the 9th and 10th pieces in the rotation. Look for news on Bogdan Bogdanovic, who can sit out on the second half of a back-to-back.
On the Raptors side of the ball, there will always be interest for me when they are in elite game environments because of how condensed their rotation is. In a 3OT win against Miami the other day, all of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. played over 50 minutes apiece, with the 3-man bench rotation of Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, and Dalano Banton saw a combined 35 mintutes. With Atlanta ranking 27th in the NBA in defensive rating, including 22nd in 3PM allowed per game, both VanVleet and Trent will be high on my priority list, with the former getting the most favorable matchup versus Trae Young, who has an individual net defensive rating of 116.3 while the Hawks as a whole rank 23rd in the league versus primary ball handlers.
Portland Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder (+4)
The gem of all gems for me on tonight’s NBA slate, this game will not only fly under the radar, but it will be a primary source of fantasy points for us. The Trail Blazers have lost Nassir Little for the duration of the NBA season, meaning there will be ample opportunity for the main offensive catalysts to lead the charge; CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, Jusuf Nurkic, and Anfernee Simons will all be in my player pool tonight, whereby the guard duo of McCollum and Simons will be of extreme interest to me. Anfernee Simons has quietly filled the shoes of Damian Lillard with effectiveness, averaging 22.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting in his last seven games, where he sports a usage rate of 27.1%.
On the flip side of the ball, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out for the Thunder, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort will shoulder the bulk of the load on offense. Specifically, Giddey sees an increase in usage rate from 21.7% to 23.1% with SGA off the court, while also seeing his FPPM increase from 1.03 to 1.08 with a notable increase in assist rate. Dort will see the largest increase in shot attempts, while the duo of Mann and Jerome will see more minutes in the backcourt, while Darius Bazley offers exposure to an offense that faces a Portland defense that ranks 29th in the NBA in defensive rating, if you need to go there.
Honorable Mentions:
- Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5)
- GS Warriors bench @ Houston Rockets
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
