The Honda Classic Final Ownership Projections

The Course and courses horses for The Honda Classic

Welcome everyone to The Honda Classic Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at PGA National, one of the toughest tests on the PGA circuit all year with the infamous bear trap, a stretch of holes, 15,16,17 that use water and sand like a butcher knife to carve up golfers left and right. What most people don’t know is that for the past fifteen years, holes 5,6,7 have produced the exact same dismal results for golfers, +.638 over par for both stretches of holes. Add the coastal breeze and you have major like scoring conditions, water is in play on 15 0f 18 holes in this diabolical course designed by none other than Jack Nicklaus, in the last 15 years over 6200 balls have splashed, this is with the best players in the world teeing it up. In 2018 there were 516 balls that got wet for one tourney, that number decreased over the last two years and last year, for the first time in course history, not one golfer made it through the bear trap without a bogey. The combined score on the beartrap for the last fifteen is +4136 over par, that doesn’t include 5, 6 or 7 which play the same in difficult scoring.

If you are considering Ryan Palmer know that he has played the trap at +40, seven strokes worse than any other golfer, he also holds the distinction of most balls in the water as well. he does have some decent history at PGA National so I would consider him a boom or bust play, I say bust this week. Jim Furyk has had the least amount of balls that become fish food in his career at PGA national.

The greens at The Honda Classic are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty fast. Its a huge change for golfers that have been playing on Poa for the last three out of four weeks. Positive putting splits over the last 50 rounds include “putts” McCarthy +43 strokes (+4 on other surfaces) Harry Higgs +24 strokes (+7 on other) Joaquin Niemann +23 (+4 on other). Negative splits over 50 include tommy Fleetwood -6 (+10 on others) Sungjae IM -4 (+10 on others) and Doug Ghim -23 (-2 on others)

If the winds present themselves all four days we could possibly be looking at plus numbers for the first time, keep an eye on Discord Wednesday evening for weather updates. Recent cut lines have ranged from +1 to plus 7, so the Friday cut sweat may need a calculator. All our models, projections and programs are numbers centric.

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Genesis Open to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

These projections are accurate as of 18:16 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Honda Classic

Top Tier: Berger

Mid Tier: Vegas

Low Tier: Kirk

Out in Left Play: Todd

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them sing the praises of Joaquin Neimann, the golfer who went wire to wire for a victory at The Genesis. These are the same guys that had a profit of plus 40 units the week before. Most professional touts will sing loudly at the top of their lungs if they score +3 units, Spence and Stix hit over 40 and keep doing their job of making money, real serious money week in and week out. You have to give the podcast a listen on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST had Jason Sobel, a pioneer in DFS golf, years ago he used to beat me in contests with 100 people, which was about the entire DK audience at the time, he and a guy named Jennings from Fantasy labs, now they are industry titans along with the shows host Joel, Sia and Spencer who have brought absolute dynamite picks to you at a level I’ve never seen in DFS golf. You have to catch the new format, its Tuesdays at 8:00 EST, it goes fast and its just plain fun. Catch it.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!