The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership Projections

Who wants a takedown this week in Golf DFS ? Keep reading !

The Course and courses horses for The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership projections

Welcome everyone to The Arnold Palmer Final Ownership Projections. This week we are in Florida at Bay Hill, another tough test that plays like a major and we just found out that the rough is now just over 4 inches in length so accuracy off the tee, approach, and around the green will weigh heavily on who makes it or who breaks it. Hole #6, a par 5 with water has the dubious distinction of being the worst hole for double digit scores, as in +10 or more, of any course anytime anywhere on the PGA tour. The four par fives account for more than 50 % of the scoring, so you’ll want to target those par five birdie makers.

The greens at The Arnold Palmer are TifEagle Bermuda and play pretty close to what we saw last week. Speaking of last week I said that Ryan Palmer (who some industry pundits liked) would bomb. He finished two spots out of last place and provided no value for his backers. This week we feel Ricky Fowler is in the same mold, yes he made the cut, yes he’s back in Florida, he made the cut based on his putting, he lost strokes on approach and around the green which doesn’t work out to well for Bay Hill. He is a pass for us this week.

Last week we saw a lot of the Win Daily family hit some sweet money numbers as we continue to pound the weekly tourney, Showdown and the betting markets as well. On Friday night I was poised for four takedowns, gave some back on Saturday, and then on Sunday went up 8000 more and then….a couple of golfers named Kirk and Svensson doubled and triple bogeyed the bear trap and Berger bogeyed 18. I still managed four figures after costs but the sweats were incredible, it’s all you can ask for.

Many years ago when I was playing poker for a living, in a hotel suite rented for a week where players would play for two or three days straight, take a nap, eat and start over, I saw a one of a kind pot go down. There was 964,000 in the pot and it ended up where a straight flush beat four of a kind, the only time I ever saw that happen in over 20 years of playing cards. The man who lost close to half a million stood up, brushed his coat off and said, “I’m done. Thank you gentleman.” He pulled some cash out of his pocket and tipped the dealer and the hostess that cooked meals and changed linens, then he smiled and said, “that’s poker,” and then,…he left. Last week Sia started a catchphrase that describes what happened Sunday at the trap and is just like the poker game. The phrase is “that’s golf.” My wife told me that all I have to think about is when a golfer keeps me from a takedown is that it may have cost me 10, 20, or 50K and yet it may have cost that golfer 200, 300 K or one million or more. She was right, and….”that’s golf.” Stix, the co host of the best podcast on the planet, Bettor Golf, along with Spencer, who just won the writer of the year award, had at least 50K riding into Sundays DFS and it just wasn’t our week for a take down. Guess what ? “That’s golf.”

This week we have a stacked field with lots of heavyweights, with a course where they forgot to tell the groundskeepers to cut the grass on purpose, and more exciting opportunities for us all to sweat the big takedown, we have been pouring over models, stats and metrics since Sunday evening, we started as soon as Straka won the Honda in the rain. One of the stats to look at is ownership to determine how badly we want to roster a Keegan Bradley and is he worth it, does he bring any value. Let’s find out, shall we ?

Let’s look at the final ownership projections for the Arnold Palmer to see where the chalk is…and isn’t.

These projections are accurate as of 17:24 CST, chalk will be higher owned in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Kokrak, McNealy

Low Tier: Keegan Bradley (his numbers here are just too good)

Out in Left Play: Martin Laird

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Sergio Garcia

FR Leader: (Risky) Laird

Last week on The Bettor Golf Podcast hosted by Spencer and Stix you would have heard them mention that they liked Sepp Straka, yes, that Sepp Straka who won it all. Kudos to them. Don’t miss Stix Hammer Kid play, its hit three weeks in a row and Spencer’s breakdown of the tourney is the most comprehensive in the entire industry. Look for the Bettor Golf Podcast on Anchor at Spotify.

Last night the PGA DRAFTCAST was giving away gold memberships, tickets to the big Milly, and passing out choice intel to help you make a mint in your golf DFS contests, as well as FRLs and outrights, Sia, Joel and Spencer were battling the audience for the best draft picks for the Thursday tourney, and to honor Spencer winning writer of the year, we left him Jason Day but he was too short on salary to pick him up, a good thing since Day withdrew earlier today. Spencer wins on that point by NOT picking Day, the man has the golden touch.

Sia will be releasing his Secret Weapon (dun dun dun) tonight in Discord, his record for picking a 6K golfer that everyone hates who brings value and makes the cut is 49-17, its stunning. Think about it, Sia could lose 31 picks in a row…and still have a WINNING record, name one other handicapper who can say that, I’ll wait.

Still waiting…..

Smile.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!