Steven Polardi 
Want to take down a contest this week ? Come on in.
The Course and courses horses for The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections
Welcome everyone to The Valspar Championship Final Ownership Projections. This week we are STILL in Florida, where it’s illegal to be gay, happy or thrilled, the contest is at Palm Harbor, home of the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. This course normally ranks in the top 10 of most difficult, with the date being moved the last time out, it played easier and Sam Burns set the tourney record at 17 under. The last three holes, affectionately and accurately known as the snake pit are the toughest on the course.
Last week the weather was the headline at the Players Championship. I did well simply because most of my picks were in the early am draw on Thursday. Beau Hossler was a low salary high value play for me and he made it through that Saturday weather nightmare at 1 under going into 17, where he proceeded to put his first two in the water. Bye Bye Beau. My fade of the week worked, Cameron Young didn’t make it to the weekend. As my esteemed colleague Sia would say, “That’s Golf.”
One of the players I’m looking at this week is Abraham Ancer, he has placed 16th and 5th in his two appearances and he putts well on this surface. He was 11th in my model. I will have 25-30% of Ancer in my lineups.
Our fade this week is going to be Brooks Koepka, word is he is tuning up for the Masters and The Valspar isn’t high on his checklist. The Players was on his list and it just didn’t work out for BK. That should continue.
For this tourney coming on the heels of the Players Championship it has more top tier talent than it normally would. Pricing is tight and there are chalk plays in the 6 and 7K salary range which is consistent with a stars and scrub approach from most entries. It makes sense with Hovland and JT being at the top of ownership, if you play those two you have to go way down the board several times to stay under the salary cap. We have a rule 17 designed by Patrick that states you never take a golfer under 7K in salary that is over 10% owned. Rule 17 is right at 100 % in accuracy.
Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on whether Rule 17 applies this week…..
| OWNERSHIP PROJECTION | ||
| PLAYER | OWN % | SALARY |
| Hovland, Viktor | 25.1 | 10800 |
| Thomas, Justin | 18.4 | 11000 |
| Bradley, Keegan | 17.9 | 8400 |
| Morikawa, Collin | 17.8 | 10700 |
| Fitzpatrick, Mathew | 16.9 | 9000 |
| Lowry, Shane | 16.8 | 9700 |
| Hadwin, Adam | 16.4 | 7900 |
| Knox, Russell | 16.1 | 8100 |
| Oosthuizen, Louis | 15.9 | 9900 |
| Burns, Sam | 15.7 | 9600 |
| Johnson, Dustin | 15.6 | 10200 |
| Noren, Alex | 15.1 | 8700 |
| Ancer, Abraham | 14.8 | 9300 |
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | 14.6 | 7900 |
| Pereira, Mito | 14.3 | 7200 |
| Kokrak, Jason | 14.2 | 9200 |
| Schauffele, Xander | 12.7 | 10700 |
| Kizzire, Patton | 11.9 | 7200 |
| Woodland, Gary | 11.4 | 8500 |
| Wise, Aaron | 11.2 | 7700 |
| Hatton, Tyrrell | 11.1 | 9800 |
| Taylor, Vaughn | 9.8 | 6700 |
| Vegas, Jhonattan | 9.5 | 7500 |
| Simpson, Webb | 9.3 | 8300 |
| Dahmen, Joel | 9.2 | 7100 |
| Watson, Bubba | 8.9 | 8800 |
| Griffin, Lanto | 8.8 | 7400 |
| Laird, Martin | 8.7 | 7200 |
| Perez, Pat | 8.4 | 6900 |
| Svensson, Adam | 7.6 | 7200 |
| Varner III, Harold | 7.3 | 8600 |
| McCarthy, Denny | 7.3 | 7400 |
| Tringale, Cameron | 7.2 | 8000 |
| Schwab, Matthias | 7.1 | 7300 |
| Taylor, Nick | 6.3 | 7300 |
| Fleetwood, Tommy | 6.1 | 9100 |
| Koepka, Brooks | 5.9 | 9400 |
| Hickok, Kramer | 5.7 | 6500 |
| Merritt, Troy | 5.4 | 6600 |
| Kisner, Kevin | 5.4 | 8200 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | 5.3 | 7800 |
| NeSmith, Matthew | 5.3 | 6800 |
| Day, Jason | 5.2 | 8900 |
| Pan, CT | 5.2 | 7300 |
| Streelman, Kevin | 5.1 | 7700 |
| Molinari, Francesco | 5.0 | 7500 |
| Redman, Doc | 4.6 | 7400 |
| Harman, Brian | 4.4 | 7600 |
| Smalley, Alex | 4.4 | 7100 |
| Smotherman, Austin | 4.3 | 6400 |
| Kitayama, Kurt | 3.9 | 6500 |
| Stallings, Scott | 3.8 | 7100 |
| Kucher, Matt | 3.7 | 7000 |
| Lipsky, David | 3.5 | 6800 |
| Hoffman, Charley | 3.4 | 7100 |
| Putnam, Andrew | 3.4 | 6600 |
| Ryder, Sam | 3.3 | 7000 |
| Haas, Bill | 3.2 | 6600 |
| Spaun, JJ | 3.1 | 6900 |
| Lee, Danny | 2.9 | 6600 |
| Lebioda, Hank | 2.8 | 6600 |
| Willett, Danny | 2.7 | 7100 |
| Moore, Taylor | 2.6 | 7000 |
| Percy, Cameron | 2.5 | 6100 |
| Theegala, Sahith | 2.4 | 7200 |
| Johnson, Zack | 2.4 | 6900 |
| Ortiz, Carlos | 2.3 | 7200 |
| Bryan, Wesley | 2.3 | 6300 |
| McDowell, Graeme | 2.2 | 6700 |
| Duncan, Tyler | 2.2 | 6200 |
| Buckley, Hayden | 2.0 | 6500 |
| Donald, Luke | 1.9 | 6500 |
| Stuard, Brian | 1.9 | 6700 |
| Wiesberger, Bernd | 1.8 | 7800 |
| Mullinax, Trey | 1.8 | 6400 |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 1.7 | 7000 |
| Kaymer, Martin | 1.7 | 6800 |
| Todd, Brendon | 1.6 | 7100 |
| Kang, Sung | 1.6 | 6800 |
| Walker, Jimmy | 1.5 | 6300 |
| Hodges, Lee | 1.5 | 6900 |
| Schwartzel, Charl | 1.4 | 6500 |
| Tarren, Callum | 1.4 | 6300 |
| Grace, Branden | 1.3 | 7000 |
| Long, Adam | 1.3 | 6800 |
| Stenson, Henrik | 1.3 | 6700 |
| Riley, Davis | 1.3 | 6400 |
| Sigg, Greyson | 1.2 | 6800 |
| Reavie, Chez | 1.2 | 6900 |
| Poston, JT | 1.1 | 6600 |
| Stanley, Kyle | 1.1 | 6400 |
| Clark, Wyndham | 1.0 | 6100 |
| Bramlett, Joseph | 0.9 | 6700 |
| Ramey, Chad | 0.9 | 6900 |
| Lashley, Nate | 0.8 | 6400 |
| Piercy, Scott | 0.7 | 6500 |
| Huh, John | 0.7 | 6800 |
| Schenk, Adam | 0.6 | 6700 |
| Malnati, Peter | 0.6 | 6400 |
| Garnett, Brice | 0.6 | 6300 |
| McGreevy, Max | 0.5 | 6300 |
| Whaley, Vincent | 0.5 | 6600 |
| Burgoon, Bronson | 0.5 | 6500 |
| Wu, Brandon | 0.4 | 6500 |
| O’Hair, Sean | 0.4 | 6400 |
| Cink, Stewart | 0.4 | 7000 |
| Wallace, Matt | 0.4 | 6700 |
| Landry ,Andrew | 0.4 | 6200 |
| Cook, Austin | 0.4 | 6000 |
| Trainer, Martin | 0.4 | 6000 |
| Thompson, Michael | 0.3 | 6900 |
| Aphibarnrat, Kiradech | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Herman, Jim | 0.3 | 6200 |
| Hadley, Chesson | 0.3 | 6100 |
| Noh, Seung-Yul | 0.3 | 6100 |
| Reeves, Seth | 0.3 | 6100 |
| Guthrie, Luke | 0.3 | 6000 |
| Hensby, Mark | 0.3 | 6000 |
| Kraft, Kelly | 0.2 | 6000 |
| Barjon, Paul | 0.2 | 6100 |
| Hahn, James | 0.2 | 6200 |
| Norlander, Henrik | 0.2 | 6500 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | 0.2 | 6400 |
| Novak, Andrew | 0.2 | 6400 |
| Thompson, Curtis | 0.2 | 6300 |
| Sloan, Roger | 0.2 | 6200 |
| Gay, Brian | 0.2 | 6100 |
| Higgs, Harry | 0.1 | 6600 |
| Streb, Robert | 0.1 | 6300 |
| McGirt, William | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Werenski, Richy | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Wu, Dylan | 0.1 | 6200 |
| Hagy, Brandon | 0.1 | 6100 |
| Uresti, Omar | 0.1 | 6000 |
| Blixt, Jonas | 0.1 | 6000 |
| fitzpatrick, a | 0.1 | 6000 |
| Brehm, Ryan | 0.1 | 6300 |
| McCain, Andrew | 0.0 | 6200 |
| Kennedy, Blake | 0.0 | 6100 |
| ALL OTHERS | 0.0 |
These projections are accurate as of 18:04 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.
My picks for The Valspar Championship
Top Tier: Hovland
Mid Tier: Ancer
Low Tier: Schwab
Out in Left Play: Wise
Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky
FR Leader: Ancer
FR Leader: Kokrak (Risky)
GAMBLERS: We have our own secret named Sia who puts out his Secret Weapon play every Wednesday night in Discord with a 49-19 record, get this-it has to be a 6K salary player, must be under 5% owned, and MUST make the cut, and he’s 49-19. If you like OUTRIGHTS and FIRST ROUND LEADERS his record is 5 wins in the last nine tourneys, an almost unheard of 60% win rate for picking one golfer out of 154, at odds of up to hundreds to thousands to 1. It’s just like having a gold mine, without the shovel, a claim or smelly miners hanging around.
You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning units week after week after week with plays featuring the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening, you are losing money. Period.
Last nights DRAFTCAST featured a spirited draft where everyone was taking the others favorites and everyone scrambled to adjust their six golfer lineups, so far Spencer and the audience have won a few with some very close contests, and a lot of subscribers have won money just copying a lineup in the DRAFTCAST draft. Don’t miss Sia, Joel and Spencer and the new format on Tuesdays at 800 PM EST. How hard is it to copy a lineup and enter it and go green for the week ? Watch and WIN !
As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!
