Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/20
For a seven-game slate, there are an awful lot of injuries and this is something to brace for toward the end of the season. The playoff teams will likely keep playing the starters big minutes but they can also rest important players and the teams not in the playoffs are trying to raise their odds in the draft lottery. It can be a crazy mix and you have to be around through the last game locking in NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/20!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Pelicans at Hawks
Pelicans – One of the best game environments on the slate is none other than the Pelicans visiting the Hawks as the game has a 232.5 point total and a spread under four points. On the New Orleans side, we can continue to target CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas since Brandon Ingram remains out. McCollum has boasted a 33.1% usage rate and even though the 1.44 FPPM will come down a touch since his true shooting rate is 61%, that doesn’t mean it has to happen here. He also has an assist rate of just under 38% so the scoring doesn’t have to be the only thing that carries him, even though the Hawks are in the bottom five in defensive rating.
JoVal doesn’t have the easiest matchup on paper since Atlanta is fifth in rebounds allowed in the paint but they are 19th in points allowed in the paint. If the Hawks try to run Onyeka Okongwu for 20+ minutes, it may not end well against the big veteran. His 1.27 FPPm without Ingram speaks for itself as well. Herbert Jones and Jaxson Hayes would be secondary targets from this game that fit the mold of needing a forward in a strong environment, but they aren’t priorities.
Hawks – I wouldn’t normally be worried about Trae Young sitting out but he was a surprising inactive in the last game. We know where to go if he sits again in Delon Wright and Bogdan Bogdanovic being the prime targets. They both went off in the last game and don’t worry about Bogdanovic not starting. He’s going to play a boatload of minutes but if Young plays, he’s super affordable for a matchup with McCollum’s defense. Sure, Young was rough in his last game but a player of his offensive capability isn’t scoring nine real points super often. His availability dictates a large portion of this slate, but at least this game is in the early block so we’ll know what the situation is.
Spurs at Warriors
Spurs – I don’t expect the Spurs to be down 40 points in this game and Dejounte Murray is in line for a bounce-back game. I will say I’m not exactly looking to force him at the expense of my entire build, but any time he’s under $11,000 there is merit to playing him. The Warriors defense has struggled a bit without Draymond Green and while he’s back playing, he’s far from full speed yet. A significant piece of news for the Spurs is Lonnie Walker is out and with Derrick White in Boston, Murray has 1.54 FPPM, a 43.7% assist rate, and a 28.6% usage rate. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are going to have to pick up some slack in the scoring department as well so in lineups that don’t have Murray, they can be utilized. Vassell playing 30 minutes is very interesting. As far as Jakob Poeltl goes, it’s not the worst spot ever since the Warriors are just 13th in points allowed in the paint. He’s back under $7,000 which is a bit more comfortable than the salary has been lately.
Warriors – I’m happy that DraftKings priced the Warriors correctly tonight because the last time Steph Curry was out, it was a chalk-fest. Now you have to think about playing Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson although Poole would still be my favorite. When Curry is off the floor, he has a 30.7% usage rate, and even with a tough assignment facing Dejounte Murray, Poole is finding his game this season and he fears nothing, Klay and Wiggins feel a little expensive, especially since Wiggins is under 0.90 FPPM when Curry is off the floor.
I will give Klay the edge here because of the 1.23 FPPM, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities. If Poole does struggle with Murray, Thompson could approach 25 shots and he’s much more involved with the offense overall. The shot has been hard to predict but if it’s on, I will look silly for calling Klay expensive. Lastly, Kevon Looney is a cheap way to get access to this side and he’ll have to match Poeltl for most of the minutes. San Antonio has been crushed in the paint, ranking in the bottom 10 in both rebounds and points allowed. He and Jonathan Kuminga are both fine lineup fillers with 35 DK upside.
Teams To Monitor
Jazz – With the news that Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley are already ruled out, it makes zero sense to see Donovan Mitchell under $9,000. He’s sporting a 36% usage rate and 1.47 FPPM in that scenario. If you want a narrative, he’s rumored to be linked to the Knicks if he wants out of Utah. Putting on a show in the Garden is well within the realm of possibility and even though I may not want to stack this game, Mitchell is among my favorite plays on the entire slate. Jordan Clarkson is in play and should log another 30+ minutes and Nickell Alexander-Walker could be played with either option if he starts.
Suns – If Jae Crowder remains out, Torrey Craig is still far too cheap for 30+ minutes against the Kings. On the flip side, if De’Aaron Fox is ruled out, I’ll be more inclined to play Davion Mitchell since he’s not going against the Boston Celtics defense tonight.
76ers – Joel Embiid is questionable but it could be an issue that this game locks 2.5 hours after the rest of the slate. If he’s out early, James Harden is going to be one of the more popular plays on the slate and he should be.
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