DFSGhost 
A smaller NBA slate does not mean there is a shortage of playoff implications or injury news to crucial players. The Lakers are now a mere 0.5 games ahead of the Spurs for the last spot in the Play-In tournament, while two Eastern Conference heavyweights battle it out for playoff seeding that can be the difference between a 1 seed and a 4 seed. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)
Invest in the most competitive game environments as the NBA season dwindles down. It will be a recurring theme for the next week, but the Eastern Conference race is simply too close to avoid it. Tonight, the Bucks and the 76ers have massive implications on the line for playoff seeding, as both are tied for the 2 seed, while only being one game back of the Heat for the 1 seed.
All eyes will be on two of the leading scorers in the NBA, and there isn’t a lineup I’ll make without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight. Having scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven, Giannis is a real threat to lead the NBA slate in scoring tonight. He has sported a 36.8% usage rate during that span, posting a 33.4/11.4/4.3 scoring line on 59.1% shooting. His minutes haven’t been at a season-high since the beginning of the month, but the Bucks will need 35+ from the face of their franchise tonight if they want to keep pace in the East.
While James Harden hasn’t been lighting it up on the offensive end in the last stretch for the 76ers, I can’t fault you if you fall on him at 10.2 on DK. However, I’m looking to pair Giannis with Joel Embiid in this one. I can provide the analytics, but realistically the sheer volume that Embiid will have tonight will do more of the talking than anything else. It won’t matter if Brook Lopez, Giannis, or anyone else stands in the paint all night long – you won’t be able to stop an MVP candidate from taking this game over.
LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks (-11.5)
The question most will ask themselves on this NBA slate is: “Am I playing Russell Westbrook?” Truth be told, there’s no denying the volume that he’ll have with both LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (foot) likely sitting this one. Westbrook shoulders a heavy 33.9% usage rate with both off the court, and has an impressive 1.36 FPPM to go along with it. However, the Mavericks are elite versus primary ball handlers, ranking 2nd in the NBA in adjusted scoring and assist rate allowed, to go along with a 108.5 net defensive rating, placing them 7th in the league. Most of the field will flock to Westbrook, but I will not be.
Since I am not playing Westbrook, I feel more than comfortable getting at least one other Laker in my NBA lineups, if not two. Both Malik Monk and Carmelo Anthony will be in for a ton of shots tonight and are much more affordable to pair with Giannis and Embiid as opposed to Westbrook, while Austin Reaves and Dwight Howard, albeit risky, make for decent value plays.
While Luka Doncic is in the best spot of any stud on the NBA slate, I simply can’t pay top dollar for a stud in a game that Vegas pegs as a blowout. If you are playing Doncic, that’s where I’d pair him with Westbrook and hope that the two go back and forth, and seemingly outscore – or at least keep pace – with Giannis and Embiid/Harden.
Teams to Monitor:
- Chicago Bulls (-4)
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