The Valero Texas Open Final Ownership Projections

This weeks winner has a first class ticket to The Masters next week. Want to see who it is ?

The Courses horses for The Valero Texas Open

This week we are in San Antonio, Texas, home of the vaunted Alamo and Davey Crockett, some pretty tough hombres called the Texas Rangers and a city with a deep heritage of Hispanic and Texan history. I’m 58 miles from the course and will be watching practice rounds today and tomorrow from the Valero Texas Open at TPC SA. Last week after watching the practice rounds at the Dell match Play in Austin I picked Scottie Scheffler to win the tourney, he was my top pick in last weeks article and that turned out ok. Hopefully lightning can strike twice.

The JW Marriott manages the course and it’s owned by AT&T. Greg Norman, yes that Greg, designed this course called the Oaks, and he brought on Sergio Garcia to assist as well. It is one of the longest courses on tour at 7500 yards and at a par 72. The rough isn’t very penal but long wayward shots will cost you due to the huge oak trees lining almost every fairway. Kevin Na scored a 16 on the par 4 ninth hole so accuracy will keep you in the mix. Winds will increase scoring as well, please check in with Discord later tonight for the latest weather. Don’t just rely on bombers either. This course was intentionally designed where all golf holes that rise uphill play downwind, all holes that play down the hills play upwind, and they don’t call this the hill country for nothing. Only one par 5 can be reached in two strokes, the others are 600+ yards and will require layups. The narrow fairways add to the dilemma but are softened by a not so rowdy rough. The course is Bermuda and Poa, over seeded like the Players and at Valspar.

Charley Hoffman owns this course, in the ten years of him playing here he has never missed the cut, and in his last five he has a win and two seconds, he has finished higher than 15th only twice in that ten years. He hasn’t been playing well from injury and says he’s good to go right now although he has come in before playing below base metrics, if you are a believer in course history then there is absolutely no one close to his record, Corey Conners comes in a very distant second. Some of the players who haven’t missed the cut in five years are Conners, Kirk, Streelman, Palmer, Kuchar, Glover, and JIMMY WALKER. (smile) This is Walkers home course, he has 1000+ rounds played here, the last time he won the Valero he beat Spieth by 4 strokes. He is a frontrunner for the Frisky Biscuit play.

This week Bryson Dechambeau is one of the top tier golfers in this tourney and we are fully fading him. In San Antonio you could say we have giant cahones. He already has a ticket to the Masters and this may be more of a shot tune up week, there are others who need it and probably want it more, NeSmith, Conners, Hadwin, Vegas, McNealy, Kirk, and Ancer come to mind as possible victors.

Lets look at the numbers to give you an idea on which “amigo” golfer could give you the edge you need .

These projections are accurate as of 17:54 CST, chalk will be higher by lock in the upper tiers.

My picks for The Valero Texas Open

Top Tier: Spieth (Contrarian) Finau

Mid Tier: Conners (Contrarian) Streelman

Low Tier: Riley (Contrarian) Smotherman

Out in Left Play: Lipsky

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

FR Leader: Pereira

FR Leader: Laird (Risky)

You have to check out the Bettor Golf Podcast with co hosts Stix and Spencer, (the writer of the year) which is available every week on Tuesdays, it’s on Anchor on Spotify. They have been earning and earning week after week with plays featuring DFS leans, the top 40 thru the top 10 and the show includes first round leaders and outright winners. If you aren’t listening to their podcast then find someone that can assist you with sign language because you are going deaf.

Last nights DraftCast was a spirited fun lively draft that the audience did really well in, Sia’s first pick was a titan sleeper, so were his others. Joel went with a low owned good metrics approach and Spencer had the right stuff down to the sixth pick when Joel took Martin Laird away from him. When Joel announced he was taking Laird, Spencer allegedly said, “Keep Martin Lairds name out of your f*****ng mouth!” I honestly think if they had been in the same studio that Spencer might have slapped him, I remember something vaguely familiar but just can’t put my finger on it, oh well, I’m watching an old movie, the Odd Couple, I just really like Oscar…..

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!