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Hello Friends and welcome to The Masters. This week is certainly headlined by the probable return of one Tiger Woods, but there are a host of other headline players that are sure to make this week special. Win Daily Sports will have plenty of PGA content coming your way including articles from FSWA PGA writer of the year Spencer Aguiar, and of course, our ownership and picks article from Steven Polardi. Add to that the team will be camped out in Discord to make sure we answer every question you’ve got. Be sure to tune into the PGA Draftcast this week here and make sure you are subscribed to our YouTube page. We will be talking course dynamics on the show, but I can tell you that my picks have a lean toward length as this course may play even longer than usual with some probable pre-tournament moisture and certain holes which have been lengthened. I’ll also have a bigger emphasis on ARG as winners have certainly flashed in that department. Again, more on the model breakdown and course dynamics on the PGA Draftcast. Now, let’s get to the Initial Picks for The Masters.
Dustin Johnson (10500) – I like DJ as long as his ownership doesn’t get too high. He showed us at the Match Play that his game is back in good order, and frankly, he was pretty great prior to that at The Valspar and The Players. His big issue right now is ARG, and that will be important here, but if he’s merely average in that department he should be in position to win The Masters.
Justin Thomas (10300) – A very reasonable price for a guy who is likely to rate out the best among most models. JT has the complete game to win this tournament and any random waywardness OTT shouldn’t hurt him too badly at this venue. His history and experience is fantastic and he could have won last year if not for one very bad hole after the rain delay. Keep in mind that JT is likely one of the most popular golfers on the slate, and other than DJ above, Scottie and Rory are my favorite pivots (I have no issue pivoting to Collin or Viktor if their ownership is extremely low).
Patrick Cantlay (9500) – We haven’t seen much of Patrick lately and what we have seen hasn’t been particularly impressive. Add to that he hasn’t been super impressive in majors and you have a guy who will hopefully carry some lower ownership. If that’s the case, then he’s an easy play for me. I’m happy to write off recent bad play with a guy who I know is elite. Solid value for last year’s FedEx Cup champ.
Brooks Koepka (9400) – While I do like Cameron Smith at 9900, I think I prefer Brooks as he is rounding into elite form at just the right time and has a length advantage over Smith. Brooks had an MC at The Masters last year, but he was definitely still hampered by injury at that time. Otherwise his track record is great here and great at majors in general. Will Zalatoris is another interesting option in this range.
Joaquin Niemann (8200) – The 8k range is tricky, but take note that dipping into this range for a few players is almost certain to make your lineup construction different. While I am considering guys like Shane Lowry and Adam Scott (and maybe Gooch as a contrarian play) my favorite play is Niemann who rates out very well across all the metrics I’m emphasizing including APP, ARG, OTT, BOB Gained, DK Points and long iron play. His experience here is below average but he’s only played here twice.
Matt Fitzpatrick (7700) – Not rating out particularly great in any one metric, but instead, Fitz is very steady across all metrics. His finishing positions at The Masters speak to a guy who makes the cut but has upside that is capped outside of the Top 20, with that said, I think we may be looking at a Fitz who is in great form and I think the upside is there.
Corey Conners (7600) – Likely to be popular given his recent play and his track record at The Masters (8th, 10th and 46th in his only 3 appearances), and if he ends up being Top 5 in ownership, I’m happy to pivot off of him in GPPs. With that said, the metrics back up the hype and he is certainly a value at this price.
Marc Leishman (7300) – Leishman is a solid course fit as evidenced by his last 5 finishes at The Masters (5th, 13th, 49th, 9th and 43rd). Beware that Leishmann has not been very good BS over his last three tournaments so only play him if the ownership is relatively low.
Max Homa (7100) – Homa has played the Masters twice and MC’d both times which should keep his ownership down relative to many of the guys in this range. Homa is absolutely crushing it in the BS department and has the length to compete with the big boys on this course. The short game has been a problem as of late, but I’ll note his MC last year was not the result of short game issues, but instead, losing over 2 strokes on APP. If he can be anywhere close to even with the short game (ARG/PUTT), then I’ll expect a made cut and much more.
Gary Woodland (6900) – I’ve been pretty high on Gary Woodland as of late and that’s paid off with back to back Top 5s at The Honda and API along with a 21st at Valspar and a 8th at The Valero. His track record at The Masters isn’t great, but I love the price and upside here. He has plenty of length and if he sprays it OTT, like he tends to do, it shouldn’t impact him too much.
Harold Varner III (6600) – Perhaps you shouldn’t be dipping down into this range, but if you do, I think Varner has the best game to compete at The Masters. He has no experience here, but he’s gained BS in a pretty huge way over his last three tournaments and has also been great with the short game. His length OTT may hold him back, but he can make up for it the rest of the way if he’s dialed in.
JJ Spaun (no price yet) – If you are a member of Win Daily you’ve probably been on this guy for a few weeks. As everyone knows, he was the Win Daily secret weapon at The Valspar and he qualified for The Masters about 5 minutes prior to the time this article was published. No, he doesn’t have experience here, but among the risky options in the 6k range, I don’t mind punting on a guy who has completely turned his game around.
Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 51-19
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