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Please give a listen to both the Bettor Golf Podcast that I host with Nick Bretwisch, as well as the PGA Draftcast with Sia Nejad and Joel Schreck.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Rory McIlroy ($10,000) – I wasn’t anticipating this route a week ago, and to be honest, I wasn’t even planning to go down this road when I initially started constructing my lineups and betting cards for the Masters. Hell, I did Sirius Radio with Jason Mezrahi and didn’t even mention McIlroy’s name on Sunday, but something changed for my model when I made a few minor adjustments after the show. First off, the rain that has hit the facility has softened the course, and maybe more importantly, I am even further intrigued about the lack of fanfare McIlroy has entering the week. The Irishman is a high ball-flight hitter who should excel at the track, and we see that data come into play with him ranking third in this field for weighted tee-to-green and first in a course-specific breakdown of my model. Sometimes your final answer changes as you do more work on the event, and this is an example where I now believe Rory captures the career grand slam at Augusta.
Other Consideration – Justin Thomas $10,300 and Jon Rahm $10,800 are my other two favorite options. Scottie Scheffler will create leverage at $11,000
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – I am partially shocked that Xander Schauffele is trending towards 16-17% owned after letting down the entire industry at the Match-Play. 1. Good for everyone ignoring the recent small-term sample size of performances, and 2. I think it makes sense because of how he sets up for Augusta. Xander ranks third in this field for weighted scrambling and three-putt avoidance and also grades inside the top-10 for par-five birdie or better percentage.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,500) -Bentgrass is Patrick Cantlay’s best surface, and he is coming into the week a little under the radar because of his most recent form. There will be volatility, but he ranks first in this field on quick Bentgrass greens, second in par-five birdie or better percentage, and second in scrambling.
Other Targets: Daniel Berger $9.000, Cameron Smith $9,900
$8,000 Range
Sam Burns $8,600 –The first-timer curse of a golfer not winning this event since 1979 hasn’t seemed to slow Sam Burns down that much, as he looks to be one of the more popular targets in the $8,000 range. Still, though, Burns’ upside is tantalizing, and there is a reason he is currently the favorite to be this year’s debutant winner.
Sungjae Im $8,400 – The recent iron form is concerning, but it is tough to ignore what the industry seems to be overlooking. Im’s ownership is hovering around five percent, which should create leverage for those that want to take a stab that the usually successful second-shot player turns the form around.
Joaquin Niemann $8,200 – I am willing to ignore the questionable course history because of his youth. Niemann grades as one of the better upside climbers in my model.
Tony Finau $8,100 – I continue to bet on the long-term form for him over the recent struggles. The ball-striking has looked good recently. He just needs to clean up the short game… which Augusta obviously isn’t the place for that.
Tyrrell Hatton $8,000 – The course history is non-existent, but the 18th-place finish that he provided last year might be a sign of things to come, especially if we look at his current form.
Other Thoughts: We talked a little about Tiger Woods on the ‘PGA Draftcast’ tonight if you want to go back and give that episode a listen. The link can be found at the top of the article.
$7,000 Range
I am going to rapid-fire through some $7,000 golfers to present a handful of choices for everyone reading.
Russell Henley ($7,800) – Russell Henley hasn’t finished worse than 21st during his last three appearances at the Masters.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) – I am going to have exposure to Tommy Fleetwood over Bubba Watson (-110) on DraftKings. That price is egregiously mispriced and will likely move before Thursday.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700) – I think you could make a strong argument that Fitzpatrick is the best value on the board at $7,700. There was a reason why Joel, Nick and I all wanted him early on the podcast Tuesday.
Si Woo Kim ($7,100) – The fact that Si Woo Kim captured the Players Championship a handful of years ago should show that he can handle a big stage. His four consecutive top-34 finishes at Augusta should show that he likes the course.
Cameron Young ($7,000) – If Sam Burns isn’t this year’s top debutant, I think the award goes to Cameron Young, who has the length to find success at a wet Augusta.
Additional Thoughts: Nick and I talked about this off-air about Max Homa ($7,100), but not all missed cuts are equal. Homa’s perceived poor form has come because of two missed cuts on the number. I am starting to think he might be a sneaky target, even though the ownership is around 10%.
$6,000 Range
Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Kevin Na $6,800, Mackenzie Hughes $6,300 – There are a handful of other options, but I don’t love the idea of trying to use more than one of the 6k range players per build.
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