DFSGhost 
While previous years have had some noticeable mismatches in the early stages of the NBA Playoffs, this year’s series’ all seem to be can’t-miss television. Not only is each 7-game series looking to be exciting, rather, we also have the luxury of seeing one of the best players in the league take the court, no matter which teams are in action. We’ll break down the four matchups in the Eastern Conference, with a few surprises to come along the way.
With the Play-In tournament now over, a friendly reminder to utilize the tools that we have to promote success in NBA DFS:
No major surprises came in the Play-In tournament, but here’s a look at the updated NBA Playoffs bracket:
Miami Heat (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)
Miami Heat (-425 to win series)
With Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Boston earning most of the conversation around the Eastern Conference, the field is once again underestimating this Heat squad. Finishing first in the weaker of two conferences is no small task, especially when Miami was missing Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry for different portions of the NBA season.
On most NBA slates, this team will be undervalued. The contributions can come from the four players listed above, in addition to Duncan Robinson and his three-point shooting, in as balanced of an offense as we’ll see in these Playoffs. Atlanta finished 19th in the league in points allowed in the paint, and will now be without Clint Capela for the early stages of the series. This bodes well for the combination of Butler and Adebayo, where the Hawks’ 113.7 defensive rating, good for 26th in the league, will be exposed. In addition, Trae Young graded out as the league’s second-worst defender amongst qualifying players, making ball handlers such as Lowry and Herro, who had a career season off the bench, awfully enticing.
Atlanta Hawks (+325 to win series)
In the absence of Clint Capela, the duo of Onyeka Okongwu and Danilo Gallinari will be tasked with manning the paint against Bam Adebayo. The former will be popular on NBA slates where Capela sits out, despite John Collins (finger) making his return in an “attempt to play through it”. However, the Hawks will only go as far as Trae Young can take them. With Miami ranking first in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, they defend the pick-and-roll awfully well, which is where Young excels at getting teammates involved. Moreover, Miami’s stout perimeter defense in the form of Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and PJ Tucker will make things difficult for Young to not only create for others, but for himself. As talented as the Hawks are, this won’t be a long series for them, but it surely will feel like one.
The Pick: Miami Heat in 5
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (7)
Boston Celtics (-145 to win series)
As one of the hottest teams in the 2022 calendar year, the Celtics come into this year’s Playoffs with high expectations. Unfortunately, they landed arguably the worst matchup a team could have hoped for when looking at the potential results of the Play-In tournament.
In the absence of Robert Williams, the Celtics will be tasked to defend the interior as a unit. Marcus Smart will presumably take on the responsibility to guard Kyrie Irving every night, but who is supposed to guard Kevin Durant? Rather, who is supposed to attempt to guard him? Sure, I am higher on Jayson Tatum than most when it comes to his defensive upside, but to ask him to guard KD for 40+ minutes in a series and lead the charge on offense is simply unrealistic. Can Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and the bench shoulder the load if Tatum has an off night? There are simply too many questions surrounding this team, and with the Nets rolling in with momentum from the Play-In victory, this one smells like a disappointing postseason for the Celtics.
Brooklyn Nets (+125 to win series)
A season of turmoil that involved James Harden requesting a trade and winding up in the Play-In tournament, the Nets now have a chance to show that they can still contend. Star power is the name of the game come Playoffs, and while the Nets’ bench and defensive liabilities can hold them back, there is no denying that the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is one of the best in the NBA Playoffs. What we saw in the Play-In game is exactly what to expect, and what the Nets will need, for them to make it out of this series. The two stars combined for 59/8/23, were +18, and logged over 41 minutes each.
Otherwise, there is some exposure to Brooklyn that can you get across various NBA slates, but I’d be wary with a player like Seth Curry considering all the volume that the KD/Kyrie combination soaks up. Bruce Brown will continue to log heavy minutes, while the paint will be manned by Andre Drummond and Nic Claxton, depending on the matchup. We may see more Claxton this series because of Boston’s lack of interior presence in the absence of Robert Williams. While there are question marks on both sides of this series, I’ll take the star power of Durant/Irving over that of Tatum/Brown.
The Pick: Brooklyn Nets in 6
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs. Chicago Bulls (6)
Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)
The defending NBA Champions will not be an easy out this postseason. While Khris Middleton often gets praise for his secondary scoring next to yearly MVP candidate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, it’s the two-way Jrue Holiday that propels this team to the next level. Similarly to Joel Embiid, Giannis will be a focal point on every NBA slate that Milwaukee finds itself apart of.
We know what the trio of Antetokounmpo, Holiday, and Holiday bring on a nightly basis, but is there any value in the rest of this rotation? In the early stages of the Playoffs, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton could present value, depending on how the game script falls in games 1 and 2. Truth be told, this series should go smoothly for the defending Champions, and as much as I want to say there’s value to be had here, there is not much to mention when Giannis dominates so much of the offensive upside of this team.
Chicago Bulls (+750 to win series)
Despite having an Eastern Conference best 31-18 record at the end of the calendar year this season, the Bulls fell off in the second half of the season. Health issues were a big part of that, and they will still be without Lonzo Ball for their playoff run. The trio of DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic can still carry this team, but they will be in for a tough matchup in the opening round, taking on the defending NBA Champions.
Whenever Chicago finds themselves on an NBA slate on this playoff run, I’ll have interest in the duo of DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine. The two combined for over 52 PPG, which is nearly as much as the rest of the playoff rotation combined. However, the defensive matchups of Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo are far from friendly. Two players that could pick up steam throughout the series, depending on their price points, are Coby White and Patrick Williams. The former has an excellent perimeter shot, where the Bucks ranked last in the NBA with 14.5 3PM allowed per night. Moreover, the latter had a tremendous end to the season after coming back from injury, ending the year having scored in double digits in five of his last six games, posting a 15.8/6.2/1.5 scoring line on 57.4% shooting over nearly 32 MPG.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks in 5
Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)
Philadelphia 76ers (-185 to win series)
The clock is ticking on Philadelphia’s championship window. This season, with the acquisition of James Harden, Philadelphia looks poised to make a deeper run than last year’s controversial exit, but the Raptors are no pushover in the opening round. However, even with Harden in the fold, this team will only go as far as Joel Embiid can take them. In this particular matchup, Embiid will be a force to be reckoned with, considering the Raptors are undersized on the inside. Sporting a 36.9% usage rate on the year, the MVP candidate posted a 30.6/11.7/4.2 scoring line on 49.9% shooting, where his numbers remained true with Harden in the lineup. The two stars have played 21 games together now, and Embiid has posted a 33.1/12.7/3.6 scoring line on 51.6% shooting through a 37.5% usage rate.
James Harden failed to record a single 40-point game this NBA season, which is truly baffling. However, he remains as dominant as ever on the offensive side of the ball. His three-point shooting will be key to beating Toronto’s stout zone defense, especially with the trio of VanVleet, Trent Jr., and Barnes on the perimeter. His playmaking surely benefits the likes of Tobias Harris, and the duo of Georges Niang and Furkan Korkmaz, who will have to step up in the absence of Matisse Thybulle when the series shifts to Toronto. Few value plays will interest me on the 76ers side of the ball, whereas Joel Embiid will be a local point in nearly, if not every NBA slate that has Philadelphia/Toronto on it.
Toronto Raptors (+165 to win series)
A familiar foe in Philadelphia, the last time these two teams met in the NBA Playoffs was when Kawhi Leonard hit a ridiculous buzzer beater in Game 7 of the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now, the Raptors come into this one as a 5 seed after labelling this season as a rebuild. The emergence of Scottie Barnes has been a big factor in the team’s success, along with the stability of franchise cornerstones, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam, in addition to Gary Trent Jr.‘s perimeter offense.
No surprises should come when I say this: Nick Nurse does not believe in a bench. Not in a regular season game in January against the Rockets, and surely not in the NBA Playoffs. The quartet of VanVleet, Siakam, Barnes, and Trent Jr. will get the bulk of the minutes here, with a combination of Khem Birch and Precious Achiuawa at the ‘5’. The latter offers tremendous length on the defensive side of the ball, which could make him a sneaky play for NBA slates in the opening round, but I’d try to stick to the core four Raptors here on a nightly basis.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers in 7
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