DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
An interesting couple of tournaments last week, where on both sides of the Atlantic we saw incredibly tough golf courses humble the best golfers in the world and, occasionally, bringing them to their knees. Of the two, The Memorial provided exactly what Jack Nicklaus wanted: a tough test which rewarded good shots and punished those who were just slightly wayward. On the other hand, the Porsche European Open sometimes proved penal simply for the sake of being penal and made for tough viewing.
The week proved frustrating for a number of reasons. On the DP World Tour, having backed Victor Perez successfully the week before was right in contention the following week. I strangely found myself cheering him on, having had both of his main challengers Kalle Samooja and Wil Besseling firmly on my watch radar. I had taken a particularly long look at Samooja before eventually fading him on the basis he was arriving on the back of three missed cuts. Fortunately, the ever consistent Edoardo Molinari came through for a Top 5 E/W place and a Top 10 payout to ease some of that pain, marking 3 Top 10 finishes in his last 5 starts.
At The Memorial, Shane Lowry managed to defy his form and produce his worst performance of the year albeit a mildly respectable 32nd place finish. Matthew Fitzpatrick produced statistically his worst putting performance of all time to miss the cut. Interestingly, this is at a course which now holds his two worst putting performances as well as inexplicitly a 3rd where he gained more than 8 strokes putting to make for one of the most bizarre form guides to consider in future.
My biggest decision of the week came down to tipping Chris Kirk or Aaron Wise, who both held similar appeal. I backed Kirk and Wise duly finished 2nd. Brendan Steele reaffirmed his fantastic pre-tournament value by cashing both a Top 10 E/W place and a Top 20 finish.
Despite all the hoopla of the financially rich and morally bereft LIV Golf tour this week, which provides a sad but tangible threat to golf as we know it, there is a golf tournament this week full of history and prestige featuring 5 of the top 10 golfers in the world at the RBC Canadian Open. Who should you be betting this week? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.
Course Analysis
The RBC Canadian Open returns to the iconic and beautiful St George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto for the first time since 2010. On first glance, the course presents as a short 7,014 yard par 70. A deeper dive into the scorecard reveals this may not be the case.
The setup includes an unusual mix of 5 Par 3s and 3 Par 5s. 4 of these par 3s play over 200 yards and will represent a put element in constructing a round, either through bogey avoidance or potential birdie opportunities. This allows 5 of the Par 4s to play at 465 yards or longer. The Par 5s all play at 560 yards or less and, theoretically, would provide an opportunity for many to reach in two. The only caveat to that is the fairways provide narrow, tree-lined targets which are bordered by 3.5 inch thick Kentucky bluegrass.
Greens are some of the smallest on tour barely breaching 4,000 sq ft on average (for comparison, only a few hundred sq ft larger than Pebble Beach). The course features more than 100 bunkers, the majority of which are dotted with generosity around these miniscule targets.
All in all, a test of accuracy and recovery appears to be on the cards. Driving accuracy should receive slightly more weight than driving distance. I also like a few more traditional metrics this week: Proximity to Pin from 200 yds+, Birdie or better from 200 yds+, Scrambling and Sand Saves.
Weather
On Monday and Tuesday, heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through Toronto producing flood warnings. This huge volume of rain will undoubtedly have an impact on the softness of the course and particularly on day one.
Further aiding this, a fair amount of rain is due overnight on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning meaning those playing Thursday AM should enjoy some of the best scoring conditions if they can find the fairway and avoid the thick and wet rough. Thursday PM has seen some forecasts of thunderstorms and gusts between 25-29mph.
Friday should see windier conditions, with moderate winds of 10-14mph but with gusts of 20-24mph should provide some added difficulty all day. The weekend should produce calm and fine conditions for all.
I do see an advantage, albeit it mild, for Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times. It is not significant enough to justify a full fade on a golfer you favour starting Thursday PM, but it bears consideration if deciding between two close options.
Tee-times are available here: https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/rbc-canadian-open/tee-times.html
Course Comps
Similar short course profiles demanding accuracy off the tee and smaller greens are:
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
- TPC Potomac (2022 Wells Fargo Championship, also indicating recent form)
- PGA National Champion Course (Honda Classic)
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
- Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge, also indicating recent form)
RBC Canadian Open – Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
- Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.5pts E/W $21.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Brendon Todd 0.5 pts E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Brendon Todd 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (TAB)
- Aaron Rai 0.5 pts E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Aaron Rai 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (Bet365)
- Rasmus Hojgaard 0.5 pts E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Rasmus Hojgaard 2pts Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)
- Mark Hubbard 0.5 pts E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- Mark Hubbard 2pts Top 20 $5.00 (Bet365)
- John Huh 0.5 pts E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
- John Huh 2pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)
- Ryan Armour 0.5 pts E/W $191.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
- Ryan Armour 2pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)
Player Profiles
Matthew Fitzpatrick
I am prepared to put the pain of being badly burned last week to go back to the well on Fitzpatrick this week. A key to being a somewhat sane and rational sport bettor must involve removing emotion and bias where possible to look at the situation objectively.
When doing so, and as mentioned in opening, we see a player who had his worst ever putting performance on a course where he also has had his 2nd worst putting performance. Fitzpatrick is an excellent putter (6th in this field for SG: Putting) who has not lost strokes putting in consecutive weeks since January 2021. We know putting is the most volatile of metrics and a reversion to his mean is likely on the cards here.
The metrics overall make easy reading as on the PGA Tour this season he ranks in traditional metrics as 15th for Birdie or Better Percentage 200+ yards, 7th for Sand Save percentage, and 4th for scrambling. In this field specifically, over the last 6 months he is 5th for SG: T2G, 4th for SG: OTT, 15th SG: Approach, 12th SG: ATG, and 20th SG: Putting (taking a dent from last week’s anomaly performance).
What Fitzpatrick did do last week was produce his best SG: Approach performance since October 2020. Of his 11 tournaments this year, Fitzpatrick has produced 8 performances finishing 18th or better. The other 3 tournaments he missed the cut completely and 6 of them he finished in the Top 10. I like the high upside this brings from a player searching for his first PGA Tour victory but holding 7 wins on the DP World Tour. To secure his first PGA Tour outside mainland USA would not be inconceivable.
Fitzpatrick holds a 2nd at TPC Potomac this year, a 5th at this year’s Valspar Championship, and has a 4th, 14th, and 14th at RBC Heritage in 2021, 2020, and 2018. A 6th at Pebble Beach’s shorter layout and smaller greens this year is also of note.
Fitzpatrick has undoubtedly added a lot more distance to his game this year, but a course where he can potentially club down to a 3 wood or iron off many tees and a slightly above average putting performance would see him challenging the very top of the leaderboard. Thursday AM tee-times suits and I also like him in FRL markets at 30s.
Brendon Todd
Although Fitzpatrick holds appeal in his desire to simply secure his first PGA Tour victory, I like to fade the majority of big names the week before a major. It worked well for us at the Valero Texas Open where I tipped 150/1 shot JJ Spaun to victory and I am happy to apply the theory again here.
Too often do we see obvious picks flounder to a poor finish as their real focus is on the US Open next week, using the tournament as a warm-up to iron out any tweaks to their game. For the most part, I like to take some of the longer odds where a victory any week matters both for the prestige but also the all-important Fed Ex points.
Todd represents a highly accurate driver who last time out we saw impress when finishing 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I backed him earlier this year as well when he finished 26the at the RBC Heritage. Interestingly narrative wise, Todd played well when finishing 8th the week before the Masters at the Valero Texas Open on a track that wasn’t necessarily the best course fit which we find here. He also holds an additional 4th at RBC Heritage and a 10th in 2021 at Sedgefield Country Club.
Todd is 5th for driving accuracy, 40th for sand save percentage, and 12th for scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. Given his recent form, performance on comparable courses, and his metric profile we are getting a lot of value at 70s here.
Aaron Rai
At his best, Aaron Rai has the game to compete with the very best but does need a course such as this to be truly competitive as he generally loses a little distance off the tee to the tour average.
Rai won’t necessarily pop as much as others given his relatively short time span on the PGA Tour and only being 27 years old. He currently ranks out 26th for driving accuracy, 41st for Proximity for 200+ yards, above average for sand saves and for scrambling. Rai has continued to grow since joining the PGA Tour and has gained strokes for approach and OTT in his previous two seasons. Being a 2 time winner on the DP World Tour and a further 2 times on the Challenge Tour, he does hold some upside appeal.
There is little to go off in comp courses given this is his first full season on the PGA Tour, but we do know he prefers these shorter formats with 26th last year coming at TPC Southwind (7,126 yards), 16th at the RSM Classic (6,837 yards), and 19th at Houston Open (7,067 yards) going alongside 4th at the recent Zurich Classic which although a team format was a short 7,341 par 72. Also of note for some correlation, visually at least, is Wentworth Golf Club on the DP World Tour where Rai previously holds finishes of 14th and 26th.
Rasmus Hojgaard
I am happy to take another DP World Tour stalwart in the talented Rasmus Hojgaard. The Dane is already regarded as part of the elite on the other side of the Atlantic, where despite his young age of just turning 21 years old he already holds an impressive 3 victories.
His ISPS Handa UK Championship win came at a short course in The Belfry which at 7,328 yard par 72 demands accuracy off the tee as well as scrambling around the greens, The Mauritius Open win was on a 7,036 par 71, and the most recent win in August 2021 was at the Omega European Masters on a 6,848 yard par 70.
In his two PGA Tour appearances this year, he has finished 6th at the Corales Puntacana and 18th at the Valero Texas Open (a week prior to another major). Backing this up is his recent iron play, again playing The Belfry well when finishing 16th just 3 starts back and gaining over 8 strokes on approach finishing 3rd in the field for SG: Approach and a 10th place finish at the Dutch Open. Further, he has not missed a cut since October 2021.
All in all, we are getting a lot of golfer at over-priced at triple figures for a golfer who is likely flying under the radar for many who aren’t as familiar with the DP World Tour players.
Mark Hubbard
As we look to the longer odds for value this week, Hubbard continued to pop up in my models as a golfer who needs a shorter track like this to hold appeal.
Most notable is Hubbard’s short-game, where he sits 15th in this field for SG: ATG for the last 12 months and backed up by sitting in the upper quartile for approach ranking 32nd for SG: Approach as well as 39th for SG: Putting. He is above average for Birdie or Better Percentage over 200+ yards, 30th on tour for sand saves, and 14th on tour for scrambling.
Perhaps most eye-catching of related form was a 2nd in late 2019 at the Houston Open (7,067 yards), 15th at the Honda Classic this year where he also has an 11th in 2020, 15th and 24th at Sedgefield Country Club, and finishing 3rd for SG: Approach recently at the AT&T Byron Nelson played at TPC Craig Ranch (7,249 par 72). More hidden is the Korn Ferry Tour form where he holds a 5th at the Louisiana Open (7,004 yard par 71), 9th at the Club Car Championship (7,185 yard par 72), and 12th at the Veritex Bank Championship (7,010 yard par 71) as well as 14th at the aforementioned Zurich Classic.
Still to secure his card for next year, Hubbard has every motivation to play well and finds a real opportunity at a course that should suit his profile.
John Huh
We stick at the 140 mark for my penultimate tip in John Huh. Huh is one of the most accurate off the tee not just in this field but on tour, ranking 24th for the season in driving accuracy as well as 58th on tour for sand saves complimentary to the test these golfers will face this week. Having performed above average in every metric for strokes gained on this field over the past 3 months, this perhaps reflect the relative strength of the field encountered this week outside the top 5 but also a golfer we can find appeal at longer odds.
The jump for 12th in his last outing (when sitting 5th after 3 rounds) came at the short course playing the Charles Schwab Challenge, where accuracy is required, and was certainly enough to put him on our radar here. Looking further, a 9th at the Honda Classic this year and 12th at the RSM Classic also holding short course appeal and representing his best performances this year.
Huh also holds another 14th, 17th and 19th at the Honda Classic, a 3rd at the RBC Heritage, 9th at Valspar, and 3rd at Sedgefield Country Club. His PGA Tour victory came at the Mayakoba Golf Classic played at the Greg Norman designed El Chameleon playing at just 6,981 for a par 71.
Admittedly many of these results occurred several years ago, but the recent form and the prior comparable course form certainly indicate a strong performance would not necessarily be unexpected on another suitable track.
Ryan Armour
We finish up the tips for the week with perhaps my favourite value pick of the week.
Armour’s immediate form on face value is unlikely to hold immediate appeal. But when you jump into a deep dive of the underlying statistics, he ticks practically every box. Armour is 1st this season for driving accuracy on tour, 11th for proximity to pin from 200+ yards, 6th for sand save percentage, and 20th for scrambling. That is precisely the profile I am looking at this week, and I can get it at odds of 200/1 in places.
In most recent shorter term form Armour sits 17th for SG: T2G, 23rd for SG: OTT (obviously all coming from driving accuracy), and 5th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months in this field.
For comp courses, a 25th recently at TPC Potomac holds some appeal in a stronger field than here where he has also finished 2nd previously. A 4th and 8th at Sedgefield Country Club, 6th at Valspar, and 12th at Honda Classic all tell us this is exactly the type of track Ryan Armour is looking for.
Unfortunately, since backing him I do believe the 200/1 has disappeared in a lot of places and may take some searching to find. If you can get it, grab it as some of the best value you can acquire this week.
