Dave Gloeckner 
After a 4-1 day on Tuesday, we’re back at it today with our favorite bets and prop bets. Overall, we’ve started August with a 7-5 record and plus money (+1.7 units).
There are many tools available but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the classic card night time slate begins at 7:05 pm with 8 games to choose from. My favorite plays for all of today, along with props and bets, are below.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +25.7 unit
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($10,400 DK) – Verlander is the ace on the board and for good reason. He is averaging 24.3 DK points per game. Additionally, Verlander is 1st in the majors in wins (14) and ERA (1.81). He is also 2nd in WHIP (0.87) and 18th in K’s (122). It’s amazing to see a pitcher at the age of 39 reinvent himself and potentially have his best season ever. But that’s exactly what the Astros ace is doing.
Tonight, he faces the Cleveland Guardians who are a middle of the road offensive team. In the past 10 days they are 15th in wOBA and wRC+. On the season, they are 19th respectively in both categories. The key for Verlander tonight will be his curveball usage as the Guardians are 26th against that pitch this season. Verlander has used his curve 19% of the time which is a career high by miles (and one of the biggest reasons for his dominance this year). Batters are hitting just 0.162 off his curve and have just 11 hits all season. I think Verlander will do his scouting and implement his hook much more tonight and provide us with another stellar outing.
ALEC MANOAH ($9600 DK) – Manoah has been the Jays most consistent pitcher this year. And it shows in his splits as he has a road ERA of 2.37 and a home ERA of 2.48 (10 starts at each). He has 57 strikeouts on the road and exactly 57 strikeouts at home. He’s just been the model of consistency as he’s allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in 20 starts.
Tonight he gets the Twins who are mired in somewhat of a slump. Over the past 10 days they are 9th in K rate (25%) and 24th in batting average. They have not been able to consistently string hits together and have relied on the long ball. Manoah hasn’t faced the Twins yet but I do like him to continue his consistency and attack a Twins team that is striking out at a high rate as of late.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
JOSE QUINTANA ($6700 DK): The Cardinals new pitcher is making his debut tonight against the Cubs. It’s familiar territory for Quintana as he faced the Cubs a month back and recorded 17.3 DK points. He went 6 innings and registered 6 K’s in that outing. Good news is, the Cubs haven’t got any better since that start. In the last 10 days they are 29th in wOBA and wRC+ and 26th in batting average. I think there is potential for a 3x return from Quintana tonight.
BONUS PICK: I really like NOAH SYNDERGAARD ($7600 DK) tonight against the Nats. Here’s another pitcher making his debut for his new team. And he gets the dream matchup of facing the Nats who just traded away their two best hitters. Syndergaard has pitched well of late averaging close to 17 DK points per outing in his last 4 (season average is 13.3 DK points). Plus he’ll have the energy from the Philly fans tonight to boost his morale and performance.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
JOSE ABREU ($4900 DK) – The White Sox are 3rd in the league in batting average over the past 10 days and a lot of that has to do with their first baseman. Jose Abreu is on a tear of late going 6 for his last 17 with 3 home runs. He’s averaging 15 DK points in his last 4 games. Tonight he gets a minor leaguer in Cole Ragans so he should be able to continue his surge.
YORDAN ALVAREZ ($5900K) – The Astros as a team are hitting 0.350 off Guardians starter Zach Plesac. They faced him once this season and scored 7 runs off the Guardians SP. Alvarez has 28 home runs on the season and is the toughest out in the Astros lineup. I look for him to take one deep tonight off Plesac who has allowed 14 home runs to date.
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: I’m going to stack White Sox tonight. They are hot of late but more importantly they are facing a LHP tonight. On the season, the White Sox have a 0.299 batting average against LHP’s which leads the MLB. Look for batters like Anderson, Vaughn, Abreu, Jimenez, and Moncada.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
KOLE CALHOUN ($2000 DK): While Calhoun is struggling of late, so are the entire Texas Rangers (3-7 in their last 10). He hasn’t had much success of RHP Johnny Cueto but this value is too good to pass up for someone with the power and potential that Calhoun has.
MLB PROP BETS
CLAYTON KERSHAW over 5.5 K’s (-140 DK) –
JUSTIN VERLANDER over 19.5 outs (-130 DK) –
KYLE WRIGHT under 4.5 K’s (-120 DK) – DeGrom only allowed more than 3.5 hits in 4 of his 15 outings last season. And tonight he’s likely on a pitch count of ~75 to 80. This feels like a perfect sweet spot for DeGrom’s first outing.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES not to bat in bottom 9 (-160 DK)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX ML F5 (-130 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
