Here are the links to my two podcasts over at Win Daily: Bettor Golf & PGA DraftCast.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – We will see where lineups end up going with how I want to allocate ownership in certain spots, but Rory McIlroy is one of three golfers up top that I want to find a way to back this week on DraftKings. The Irishman enters the contest having produced five straight top-19 finishes since the Memorial a few months back, and while I do have some concerns with how the putting splits will transfer over to Bermuda since it has historically been his worst surface, we have seen players win this title in the past by excelling with their ball-striking and losing strokes on the greens.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,800) – I think Scheffler wins this event because of his ball-striking and ability to scramble from out of the rough. That is a combination that is going to suit TPC Southwind perfectly.
Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) – It will be hard to play more than three options up top for me with how aggressively I want to get to Scottie Scheffler, but it was a tough decision between Cantlay and Xander. I decided to roll with Cantlay because I do believe it will create slightly more leverage than the current ownership is inferring, but there wasn’t much of an edge either way.
Other Thoughts – I am completely out on Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith.
$9,000 Range
Will Zalatoris ($9,500) – Zalatoris and Scheffler will be the two golfers that will push 40%+ for me in my builds.
Jordan Spieth ($9,100) – Spieth’s increase on Bermuda is notable with the flat stick, gaining the second-most of anyone in this field in his expected output.
Viktor Hovland ($9,000) – I wasn’t planning on backing Viktor Hovland this week, but if I believe there is general ease in getting up and down from off the green, Hovland is one of the top candidates to receive a boost in production. The volatility is there for him to miss the cut, but I don’t see much difference between him and Morikawa from an upside perspective.
Other Thoughts: As always seems to be the case with Fitzpatrick, he never quite makes my player pool when push comes to shove, and I decided to go overly aggressive on Zalatoris, which meant Finau was left on the side. It is hard to find much about Tony to dislike if we remove his ownrship.
$8,000 Range
Collin Morikawa ($8,700) -Morikawa ranks first in my model for good drive percentage on difficult-to-hit fairways, and he is also sixth in weighted proximity.
Sungjae Im ($8,500) – The long-term metrics show a correctly priced golfer, but the more recent stuff is pushing Sungjae Im into this zone that places him as a top-five fit for TPC Southwind. As everyone knows by now, I prefer the long-term metrics, but the Bermuda upgrade that Sungjae will receive + the numbers firing on all cylinders does have me drinking the Kool-Aid that there is a chance he walks out of Memphis with his blue suede shoes.
Shane Lowry ($8,300) – The offshore market doesn’t seem to care much for Shane Lowry, but it is hard to ignore his top-10 totals for weighted proximity, ball-striking, weighted par-four scoring and weighted tee-to-green.
Other Thoughts: I can’t take the chalk in every situation, so I will find myself lower on Joohyung Kim and Sam Burns than consensus.
$7,000 Range
Corey Conners ($7,600) – Conners is a perfect stylistic fit for TPC Southwind, as he ranks inside the top-10 in this field for good drive % on difficult-to-hit fairways, GIR percentage, ball striking and strokes gained off the tee.
Adam Scott ($7,500) – A GPP leverage target, Scott grades as one of the better pivots, even if he is correctly priced.
Keegan Bradley ($7,500) – If you only look at Keegan Bradley from a statistical sense, he is one of the better values in the field. Sure, the form and course history does matter, but he is worth a flier in GPP contests.
Harold Varner III ($7,400) – Nobody burns me as frequently as Harold Varner III. I’d be cautious in my exposure.
Adam Hadwin ($7,300) – I don’t know what the upside is for the week, but I do like the leverage.
Brian Harman ($7,200) – A 71st-place showing has made everyone jump off of Brian Harman, who is just a week removed from being the sharpest play on the board at the Wyndham.
Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!
$6,000 Range
Rickie Fowler $6,400, Mark Hubbard $6,900, Lucas Glover $6,300, Matthew NeSmith $6,500, Stewart Cink $6,600, Lee Hodges $6,400, Russell Knox $6,500, C.T. Pan $6,400 – I tried to list as many options as I could to go with a Scheffler/Zalatoris stack. Some of the routes are safer than others.
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