Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a nice sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. With it being an 8-game slate, we have limited options tonight as we have no true ace on the mound. The positive with that is that we’ll be able to fit any bat we want.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Sonny Gray vs. Kansas City Royals
We saw what a solid righty could do last night against the Royals as Joe Ryan flirted with a no-no. While I doubt we see a repeat performance of that, Sonny Gray is in line to have a solid night. This Royals lineup has become anemic over the past week, scoring just 15 runs while having just one homer. They can be dominated and Gray should be able to tonight.
Gray is coming into this one pitching pretty well. Over the last month, Gray has had a 2.33 ERA and has even shown some K upside with a 27% K rate. Gray should face a lineup with 6 lefties tonight. This sets up well for him as he’s had a 38% K rate vs. lefties over the last month. All signs point to Gray being one of the top pitchers on the slate.
David Peterson vs. Chicago Cubs
The Mets are in desperate need of a shutdown performance tonight. They’re reeling as they’ve lost 2 straight with 2 of their top pitchers on the mound. Peterson, while not a dominating pitcher, has done well for the Mets in limited opportunities this season. He’s coming into this one with an ERA over 4 over the last 30 days, but an xFIP nearly half of that at 2.14. He’s a groundball pitcher who has allowed just a 21% flyball rate over the last month.
The Mets should get a solid performance out of him tonight as he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since mid-June. He also had 4 consecutive starts with at least 6 strikeouts. The Cubs have struck out a ton over the last week with a 34% k rate. There’s definitely some upside with Peterson tonight.
Ross Stripling vs. Tampa Bay Rays
This should tell you all you need to know about pitching tonight. It’s bare and the one ‘Ace’ gets a terrible matchup vs. the Cardinals. Stripling is coming into this game pitching well. Over the last month, Stripling has a 27% K rate and just a 2.67 ERA. He’s been extremely consistent this season in that he’s allowed more than 3 ER in a start just once this season. He has 5 consecutive starts with at least 15 DK points and should be able to make it 6 after a date with a Rays team that isn’t overly intimidating, especially with Brandon Lowe now on the IL.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Davies
The Dodgers get a great matchup tonight vs. a bad pitcher. Davies is coming into this one after arguably his worst start of the season. Against the Rockies last week, he gave up 3 homers and 6 ER in a little more than 3 innings of work. While the hitting environment won’t be as good tonight, the team he’s facing will be even scarier.
If we look at all of Davies’ metrics over the last month, they’ve been terrible. He’s allowing a 40% hard-hit rate, a 42% flyball rate, and has allowed 5 homers and 8 barrels in 24 innings of work. He’s going to have his hands full tonight with one of the top lineups in all of baseball.
Core: They’re expensive, but my core with the Dodgers tonight will be Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, and Max Muncy. All three of these guys are currently hitting the cover off the ball. Over his last 21 AB, Freeman has 10 hits. He has a 1.524 OPS over that stretch as well. He’s coming into this one off of a solid night last night, a night that saw him homer. Muncy is also swinging a hot stick. He has hits in 8-straight games, including 2 hits last night and a homer. He should be able to keep the good times rolling in a soft matchup vs. Davies.
Secondary Pieces/Value: After my core with the Dodgers, I’ll look to get guys like Justin Turner, Joey Gallo, and Will Smith into my lineups. Turner has been really solid against righties over the last month, with a .425 wOBA and a .286 ISO. AT $4.6k on DK, he’s one of the cheaper Dodgers bats tonight.
Gallo is an intriguing bat. He’s also a cheap way to get exposure to this Dodgers lineup as he’s just $3.3k on DK. Gallo’s a huge risk as he could get you a big fat goose egg, but as he showed last night he can also get you a random homer at a cheap price
Texas Rangers vs. JP Sears
While the Rangers haven’t been great vs. righties this season, they’ve been strong vs. lefties and have gotten us success in our MLB DFS stacks. On the year, they have a .755 OPS and 115 wRC. They’ll get a strong matchup tonight vs. a lefty that has struggled of late. He’s coming off the worst start of his career. Against the White Sox, he allowed 6 ER in just 2 innings of work. He also allowed 3 homers in that start.
Many of his advanced metrics had said he was due and he finally fell flat. He should have another outing tonight where he falls flat. With Sears, we’ll want to focus mostly on righties. All 6 of the homers he’s allowed this season have been to righties and they also have a .430 slugging % vs. him.
Core: My core with the Rangers will be Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Nate Lowe. I know said to focus on the righties, but Lowe is in a different class than most lefties. He is one of the better L/L hitters in the league. Over the last month, Lowe has a .511 wOBA vs. lefties and a nearly 49% hard-hit rate. He’s someone that we can typically get lower-owned in these types of matchups.
Ok, back to the righties. Semien is playing really well right now and will be a lock in my Rangers stack tonight. He has hits in 8 of his last 9 games and had a monster night at the plate last night. He went 3 for 5 last night with 3 doubles and 3 runs scored. In this matchup, he very well could have a similar stat line.
Value: After my core, I’m just going to jump to the back of this lineup for value. Josh Jung, Mark Mathias, Leody Taveras, and Bubba Thompson are all going to have the platoon advantage tonight and are all under $3k. Jung has to be the favorite of the bunch as all he’s done since getting the call-up is hit. He’s had a hit in 5 of his 6 games and is just $2.2k on DK. He’s going to be popular, but with the way he’s playing he’s a free square.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Patrick Corbin
When Corbin is on the hill, I attack him in my MLB DFS stacks. Does it always work out? No, it doesn’t. Occasionally the luck gods are in his corner and all those hard hits he gives up end up in someone’s glove. That said, more often than not it works out. He’s just an awful pitcher who is prone to giving up a ton of homers and barrels. Over his last 31 innings of work, he’s given up 6 homers and an insane amount of barrels in 16.
When you give up that many homers and barrels, you’ll end up getting on the wrong side of win/loss column often. We’ll want to prioritize the righties in this Orioles lineup. Righties have a .541 slugging % and a .394 wOBA vs. Corbin this season. They’ve also hit 24 of the 27 homers he’s allowed.
Core: The main guy I want here is going to be Ryan Mountcastle. He’s been extremely solid vs. lefties over the last month with a .421 wOBA and a .300 ISO. Most importantly though he’s the guy in this lineup that really crushes lefty sinkers. He has a .448 ISO against them and a .482 wOBA. There is an extremely strong chance he homers tonight vs. Corbin.
Secondary Pieces: After Mountcastle, I’ll look to include guys like Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Matteo. Santander has been the Orioles MVP this season and is in a position to have a solid night. Against lefties over the last month, he has a .407 wOBA and a .214 ISO. He hasn’t shown too much power against lefty sinkers, but he does have a .423 wOBA vs. them. The same could be said for Urias tonight. Not too much power vs. lefty sinkers, but a very solid .431 wOBA.
Value: Should Brandon Hyde repeat history, he’ll have Ryan McKenna in the leadoff spot tonight against a lefty. He’ll make for a nice value play at the min price of $2k on DK tonight.
MLB DFS Summary
Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Athletics vs. Dane Dunning and Mets vs. Drew Smyly.
Make sure to check out our Home Run Model.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
