Dave Gloeckner 
PLAYOFFS BABY! That’s right the MLB Playoffs are here. And I haven’t hung in all year with you to simply skip the best playoff format in all sports. That’s right, the MLB got this thing right and has put together a tremendous format for the playoffs. The best of 3 series this weekend is the perfect way to play a wild card round. The 1 game format was trash. To rely on one game to decide a 162 game season just felt wrong. Now 3 games isn’t much more but think of it this way. Most series in the regular season are 3 game series. So now we get a natural format where the better team has a full home game advantage. It’s just cool and I can’t wait to see the intensity of the playoffs this weekend.
I finished the season at +61.8 units which was well beyond my expectations. Our pitching props were the most profitable but the home run plays were good too. Which gives us some positive feelings going into these playoffs and beyond!
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
NOTE: MLB 2022 Season Props/Bets are +61.8 units
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
MAX SCHERZER ($9800 DK)
One of the biggest handicapping angles we’re taking going into the playoffs is the bullpen factor. Teams like Tampa and St Louis will be perfectly fine getting 4 innings from their starter and moving onto their bullpens. But the Mets are one team that will be happy in giving Max the ball and saying go as far as you can. In his last 2 postseasons, Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1 save. He’s struck out 60 in 46.2 innings. He’s a big game pitcher and I have the utmost confidence he’ll be ready to go in this game.
As for his opponent, the Padres, over the past 35 days they are 24th in runs scored and 19th in batting average. A lineup of Machado, Soto, and Bell have not produced as planned. But they are still dangerous and provide potential. However, Scherzer did pitch once against the Padres and had 8 K’s in 6 innings with only 2 ER’s. And this is the Padres first visit to the playoffs since the COVID season so they are mostly unexperienced. I’ll go with experience and the big game pitcher to excel in this spot.
SHANE BIEBER ($9300 DK)
I’m a believer in the Bieber. The Guardians ace quietly put up a spectacular season finishing in the top 20 in wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP. And he’s pitched his best down the stretch as he posted a 2.14 ERA since August 1st. And he’s such a consistent starter as he pitched more than 6 innings in 26 of his 31 starts this season. His one start against Tampa was fantastic as he went 6 innings and allowed just 1 ER with 8 Ks. He’s built for postseason baseball and I expect him to have a great outing today.
ZACK WHEELER ($7200 DK)
Wheeler has pitched 14 innings against the Cardinals this year and allowed 0 ERs. He’s simply dominated one of the better lineups in the NL. Add to that, he pitched 3 starts since coming off the IL and allowed just 1 ER in 15 innings of work. He looks strong and the time off gave him some needed rest to save his best stuff for October. And that’s what I expect today for Wheeler and have him as my 2nd favorite SP on the card.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
ALEK MONOAH ($6900 DK)
This is just how DraftKings decided to price the card as we know Manoah is a $9K pitcher on daily cards. But we’ll take the discounted value today! The Blue Jays ace finished 4th in the MLB in ERA at 2.24. And he finished the season strong going 4-0 with a 0.88 ERA in his last 6 starts. That’s the type of groove we love to see going into playoff baseball and one of the main reasons to love Manoah today. The other is his opponent, the Mariners, who are the worst hitting team in the playoffs. Seattle finished 27th in the league with a 0.230 team batting average. It’s also the first time in the playoffs for many of them which adds nerves. For all those reasons, Manoah is a great play today.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: Let’s stack the Blue Jays today. Luis Castillo is obviously a top of the line starter. But his ERA in September was 3.90 which was his highest month of the season. Also his road ERA was 3.29 which is 0.6 runs higher than his home stat line. He also faced the Blue Jays once this season and allowed just 2 runs but did allow 7 hits in 6 innings. Offense is hard to predict in October but I think the Blue Jay lineup is the best unit going tomorrow and has a chance to put up good numbers against a 1st time playoff starter. Blue Jays are #1 in batting average, wOBA and wRC+ since Sept 1st.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MATT VIERLING ($2100 DK)
The Phillies will start Vierling in CF today as a lefty in Quintana is starting for St Louis. Vierling is batting 0.295 against LHPs this year which is 80 points higher than against RHPs. For those Phillies fans that remember 2011, this feels like a John Mayberry moment for Vierling. In a spot start in that series against STL, Mayberry hit a homerun in Game 4 in STL which pushed the series back to Philly.
MLB PROP BETS
ZACK WHEER over 4.5 Ks (-110 DK)
The Phillies bullpen is bad. As long as Wheeler is cooking, the Phillies will stretch him out. That’s good news for a K prop over.
LUIS CASTILLO underr 5.5 K’s (-130 DK)
Toronto was 26th in the regular season in K rate. They are tough to strike out and I think they will have some success today off Castillo.
METS and PADRES NRFI (-160 DK)
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