Dave Gloeckner 
We had another solid week with the Running Back Report Card in Week 7. Our number one play was the number one play last week in Josh Jacobs. And my other smash play was Kenneth Walker who put up the 3rd most points for a RB last week. They were in great situations and highly owned but they were also in the Million Dollar winner’s lineup so chalk can work at times but we have to expect to be different in other areas.
Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.
As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).
My strategy this week is to employ 3 RB’s in most of my lineups. I’ll look to take a Tier 1 RB in some lineups but most of my builds will be from Tier 2 and 3 as the potential points in that range are equal to some of the top end RB’s this week but at a much cheaper price.
TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS
SAQUON BARKLEY $8100 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel
The Giants RB hasn’t produced one bad game yet. He’s averaging 21.5 DK points per game and has a floor of 11.8 pts and ceiling of 36.4 pts. So he’s very consistent and someone you can count on each week. And this week he gets a great matchup against a bad Seahawks defense. Seattle is 29th in rushing yards allowed per game at 149.7. They also allow the 3rd most points to RB’s. And if there’s one thing the Giants do well, it’s run the ball. New York is coming off a game in Jacksonville where they totaled 236 yards on the ground and are now 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game at 173.4. It’s a great spot for one of the NFL’s best runners which makes Saquon my favorite play in Tier 1.
DERRICK HENRY $8200 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
Start any good running back against the Texans. That’s why we loved Josh Jacobs last week and why we’re backing Derrick Henry this week. The potential is there for a 40 fantasy point game. So I like Henry a ton in GPP’s because of the big upside. I do think Houston will sell out to stop the run this week due to the lack of threats in the Titans passing game. But they won’t be able to fully contain Henry and he’ll find his way to 100+ yards and 1+ TD’s.
JONATHAN TAYLOR $8000 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel
We haven’t had a JT game since Week 1. A lot of that is due to Matt Ryan and his inability to throw the ball past the sticks. Defenses could stack the box against both the run and pass game. But with Sam Ehlinger starting for the Colts, it will add a new dimension to the Colts offense that should open up the field for Taylor. Ehlinger has an average arm but is willing to throw downfield. He’s also a capable runner and will move the pocket. For all these reasons, plus Washington allowed 9 receptions to Aaron Jones last week, I like Taylor to get loose this week and put up a JT game.
TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS
DEANDRE SWIFT $6800 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel
In two home games this season, Swift has averaged 23 DK points on only just 25 touches. He just explodes on the turf and should be in line for a big game this week against a Dolphins team that wants to play with pace. The only concern here is how much the Lions will use Swift as he’s missed the last 3 games due to injury. But because of the game environment and potential for points, he should be used quite more than expected and I believe he’ll be in line for a big game.
KENNETH WALKER $6500 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel
NOTE: This section was previously written with Walker’s Week 7 matchup against the Chargers. He faced the Giants last week who were also considered a team that he could have a big game against due to the Giants ranking 25th in rush defense DVOA.
TONY POLLARD $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel
Zeke Elliott is doubtful and trending towards out. Which makes Pollard a smash play this week as the Cowboys face a bad rush defense in the Chicago Bears. The Bears are 24th in rush defense DVOA and 29th in rushing yards allowed per game at 149.7. Pollard should see 60% (or more) of the snaps and carries this week and I expect a huge game from the Cowboys explosive runner. This is only a smash if Zeke is out.
TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)
RAHEEM MOSTERT $5900 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
The Dolphins travel to Detroit where the Lions have allowed 113 points to their opponents in 3 games. In those contests they’ve also allowed 8 rushing touchdowns! The Lions rank 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed at 162.6 per game. As for Mostert, he is clearly the lead back for the Dolphins as we identified back in Week 3. In the past 2 weeks he’s had 70% of the snaps and produced 130 yards on 30 carries. I think he could go for that many yards alone this week against a bad Detroit rushing D.
BRIAN ROBINSON $5600 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Many men gets another chance to add to his amazing story. The Commanders face the Colts this week who allow the 8th most points to RB’s. They also allow 123.4 yards per game on the ground which is 22nd in the NFL. Robinson’s snap count last week rose to a season high of 47% and he received 20 of the Commanders 36 carries. He has a good matchup in what should be a slower game with many possessions.
D’ONTA FOREMAN $5300 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel
Foreman seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the Christian McCaffrey trade as he received 54% of the snaps last week and 15 of the team’s 27 carries. This week he gets to face a Falcons defense that is 32nd in DVOA and 26th in rushing DVOA. At this price we have potential for 3x value in Foreman and will like to play him in some Flex spots in both GPP and Cash games.
BONUS PICKS
I already listed my 9 favorites so I’ll give you two bonus ones in this section. I like the game environment in New Orleans this week and will want to get several shares of Raiders and Saints players. I will be playing both ALVIN KAMARA ($7100 DK) and JOSH JACOBS ($7500 DK). I feel like this will be similar to the Seattle and Cincinatti games that were recently played in NO and produced huge numbers for several players (Lockett, Chase, etc). The Saints are 19th in rushing defense DVOA and the Raiders are 20th. So there are yards to be had on the ground and points to be scored.
RB PROP BETS
We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.
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