Richard Masana 
If last night’s two-game slate let you down, it’s time to get thirsty as we have a thirteen-game NHL Thursday on tap. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning.
11/3 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Washington Capitals (-120) at Detroit Red Wings (+100) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Carolina Hurricanes (+120) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Vegas Golden Knights (-135) at Ottawa Senators (+115) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Boston Bruins (+105) at New York Rangers (-125) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Seattle Kraken (+155) at Minnesota Wild (-180) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Islanders (+100) at St. Louis Blues (-120) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Montreal Canadiens (+175) at Winnipeg Jets (-205) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Los Angeles Kings (-170) at Chicago Blackhawks (+145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Nashville Predators (+160) at Calgary Flames (-190) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (+135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155) – 7 Projected Goal Total
Dallas Stars (-195) at Arizona Coyotes (+165) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Anaheim Ducks (+140) at Vancouver Canucks (-165) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Florida Panthers (-215) at San Jose Sharks (+185) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
11/3 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Edmonton One “Connor McDavid ($9,900), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6,000), Zach Hyman ($6,700)“
I wouldn’t be particularly worried about any one line being popular on a thirteen-game slate. Not surprisingly, McGod and company have been eating early on. The Oiler’s top line is currently tied for second in the NHL with three other lines with seven full-line goals to their name. They also have a juicy matchup tonight as the home favorite in the highest total game of the night, the only game set at 7. All three skaters are members of Edmonton’s power-play unit, so consider another box checked. If there is a drawback, it’s that Connor McDavid’s sky-high pricetag comprises a lot of salary for one player. But hey, as the saying goes, you get what you pay for.
11/3 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Carolina Two “Martin Necas ($5,900), Andrei Svechnikov ($7,600), Jasper Kotkaniemi ($3,000)”
The contrarian line is usually the fun line to write up. While we’re looking for a line that’s off the board, it doesn’t mean we can’t use peripheral stats to our advantage. One of my favorite metrics is SATF which includes all shot attempts, so it factors in both missed shots and blocked shots. I think that analyzing SATF helps us to identify which lines are due for both positive and negative regression in terms of actual goals scored.
Most of the leading lines in terms of SATF are fairly notable. However, as you can see below, we have a relatively obscure line placing third in SATF.
Andrei Svechnikov is a bit of a budding star but I think it’s safe to assume that his linemates tend to go a bit under the radar. I can guarantee you very few people will be playing them with Carolina a +120 underdog against the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, they just could be that line that helps us take down a large field tournament.
Additional Lines to Consider
Dallas One – Roope Hintz “$6,500”, Jason Robertson “$7,000”, Joe Pavelski “$5,300”
Florida Two – Sam Bennett “$4,700”, Sam Reinhart “$4,600”, Rudolfs Balcers “$2,600” VALUE LINE
Defensemen “Goalies covered in Between the Pipes”
Defenseman “high-end” – NONE
“mid-range” – Shea Theodore – Las Vegas – $5,100 – He is finally heating up with double-digits DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He has scored goals in two of his last four games and he’s the type of player who goes on streaks.
“mid-range #2” – Alec Martinez – Las Vegas – $4,500 – While he doesn’t have Theodore’s upside, you can save $600 with his teammate. Martinez has double-digits DraftKings points in five of his last six games, so certainly no slouch.
“low-end” – Erik Gustafsson – Washington – $2,500 – With John Carlson out, Gustafsson is quarterbacking Washington’s top power-play unit at the dead minimum price.
11/3 NHL Best Bet
Washington Capitals (-120) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – The model over at our friends at Sharp is showing some edge here. Both teams have a lot of injuries at the moment, but the Caps are the better team.
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