Jared Contestabile 
This is what I’m talking about. The Dolphins and Chargers square off on Sunday Night Football. Justin Herbert vs Tua Tagovailoa. A lot will be settled in this one, but this game means exponentially more to the Chargers. They come into this one with a 32% chance of making the playoffs, while the Dolphins sit pretty at 88%. The Dolphins, fresh off a brutal beating by…Brock Purdy…are favored by 3.5 here with a massive total of 54.5. Let’s find some edges here!
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Captain/MVP Plays
Justin Herbert, Chargers ($16,200 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)
Listen, just because I list Herbert first doesn’t mean that I think he is better than Tua…or does it? None of that matters here, all that matters are fantasy points. Herbert continues to throw the ball at a massive rate (47 attempts each of the last two weeks), and has 6 TD/1 INT in his last three games.
Mike Williams may not be 100%, but he is expected back for this one, which is a massive boost for Justin. Keenan Allen looks to be back to his old self, and this Chargers offense is as healthy as it has been all season.
Expect Herbert to be aggressive against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing QB this season. The Chargers will need to keep their young signal-caller upright if he is going to have success. He has been sacked 16 times over his last four games…and the Dolphins have 14 sacks in their last four.
Herbert may take some hits, but I’m expecting a big performance with the Chargers’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($17,100 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)
He’s one of the easiest players to dislike in the NFL, but damn he is good. Hill is on a historic pace this season, having already amassed 96 catches for 1,379 yards. Inexplicably, he has just five touchdowns, but that’s the only negative you can find in his game.
The Dolphins let their foot off the gas against the Browns and Texans, which led to a dip in production for Hill across a two-week span. He blasted off against the 49ers with a 9/146 line on 14 targets. The Chargers’ main weakness is their run defense, and have actually been above average against WR. Hill ain’t your regular WR. He is very expensive, but his ceiling is simply massive.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($16,500 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)
I’m not really interested in paying down for my bonus spot. These three (along with Tua or a sprinkle of Waddle) are my main targets for SNF. I can save salary elsewhere. The upside with this group is simply too high to ignore.
Ekeler has a tremendous floor due to his high volume in the passing game. He has seen 16, 12, 8, 12, 2, 15, and 6 targets in recent games. The return of Allen and now Williams will undoubtedly cut into that, but I’m not overly concerned. In a fast-paced offense that tends to play from behind a lot, Ekeler will continue to be heavily involved.
Over the last two weeks, the Dolphins have been dominated by opposing RB from a fantasy perspective. They have allowed 16 grabs for 111 yards and a pair of scores to RB over that span. Only 139 rushing yards, but Ekeler isn’t a volume runner in the way that he is a pass-catcher. He’s in a good spot here, and the Chargers need all the help they can get.
FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($10,400 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel)
I briefly mentioned Tua above, and I’ll keep this short and sweet. If you remove the 6 TD game, Tua has only been a great fantasy asset in three other games this season. He has totaled 14.8, 11.44, 3.4 (injury), 15.94, 15.96, and 16.8 DraftKings points in his other six games.
He is a fantastic real-life QB, but more often than not, I’m not thrilled about his upside. The Dolphins should (but will they?) rely on the run here quite a bit (more on that in a minute), so I’m not expecting a ceiling game here. That said, Tua could pay off quite nicely. I just prefer the options above at similar price points.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr., Dolphins
Hear me out on this one. Wilson was a ghost last week against the 49ers, while Mostert didn’t exactly set the world on fire either. The Chargers are an elite matchup for opposing RB, allowing over 27 fantasy points per game and 15 touchdowns on the season.
Both are priced in the mid-tier range, and I’m a big fan of rostering both here. Mike McDaniel and company know how to take advantage of a mismatch, and this is a mismatch. The Dolphins remain one of the highest volume passing attacks in the NFL, but would be wise to take what the defense is giving them.
I’ll be throwing this duo into a few lineups together. Wilson looked fantastic over his three games prior to last week. I can’t fathom a scenario where the Dolphins run the ball just eight times here. I lean toward Wilson if choosing one, but if you’re going MME, throwing both in together on a lineup or two looks nice.
Keenan Allen, Chargers ($8,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)
I touched briefly on Allen’s production since his return, but let’s take a deeper look. Over three games since his return he has posted the following lines:
5-94 (8 targets) 13.4 DraftKings points
5-49-1 (7) 15.9
6-88-1 (14) 20.8
He is trending up, and Mike Williams being back will have a minor effect, and possibly even a positive one. He is still Herbert’s safety blanket, and it is easy to project him leading the team in targets.
Other Options
Jaylen Waddle may be the lost player who isn’t getting as much attention as he should in this one. He pulled a disappearing act against the 49ers, but don’t expect that again here. He doesn’t have “Cheetah” upside, but he could be a difference maker in this one (he still isn’t as good as Tee Higgins).
“Dicker the Kicker” will always be fun to say, and he is now 12/13 on the season. Both he and Jason Sanders are in play here, but Sanders has been inconsistent. Give me DTK here.
Don’t look now, but Trent Sherfield has actually outscored Waddle over the last three weeks, and it hasn’t been close (36.1 DK vs 26). He is priced nicely and is a solid pivot here.
I still have an unhealthy obsession with Gerald Everett, and like him quite a bit here as well. He is coming off a solid game last week. This matchup is a bit tougher, but he is in play here.
Everyone loves a $200 play on DraftKings. That guy for me this week is Cedrick Wilson. River Cracraft is DOUBTFUL, and Wilson has paid off a few times this year with expanded opportunities. What better time than a 54.5 point total? His floor is the same as yours or mine, but if he can grab 5-8 fantasy points, we would be ecstatic.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
