NFL DFS Week 15: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

Another fantastic week for the Win Daily family in Week 14! Our gross punt-play in GPPs of Russell Wilson paid off big time to offset the massive letdown from Dalvin Cook. Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 15 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hurts is the frontrunner for MVP (in my opinion) and playing at an elite level with both his arm and his legs. He’s the clear top-option at the quarterback position and his salary reflects that. The Bears’ are the walking wounded on both sides of the football and will offer little resistance to this Eagles offense as a whole. Hurts is an elite option for both NFL DFS cash and GPP tournaments.
  
  Stack Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders
  Run-Back Options: Cole Kmet, Naked (no run-back)
  
• Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Another week of picking on the Titans’ pass-funnel defense leads us to one of my favorite quarterbacks in all of football. Justin Herbert has averaged over 48 pass attempts per game in the last three weeks, lol! The volume and healthy wide receiving core leaves Herbert in the “nut” matchup for quarterbacks against the Titans’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). He is my overall best value/upside option for both cash games and GPP lineups.
  
  Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett
  Run-Back Options: Derrick Henry, Chig Okonkwo
  
• Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Prescott is in another fantastic matchup this week and should be primed up to make a statement after a disaster of a game against the Houston Texans last week. The Jaguars defense is a bit-banged up and grade 30th in pass defense DVOA. My only concern with Prescott is the Cowboys’ red-zone offense is built around the running backs and are always a threat to steal the touchdown production, but that is football. The price is right with Prescott in this matchup and we may even get an additional boost with Tyron Smith expected to return from IR.
  
  Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard
  Run-Back Options: Christian Kirk
  
• Tom Brady ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – The gross, value play of the week! The recent strategy of using these value quarterbacks to afford the top-tier studs in good game environments (Davante Adams and St. Brown in Week 13 / Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and St. Brown in Week 14) has been extremely successful for me the past two weeks and I’m going to continue to build that way. Sure, some of those studs above didn’t have smash games, but I’m getting 60+ points out of those combinations on a weekly basis that I can’t really get elsewhere.
  
  Unlike my last two value quarterbacks for my NFL DFS GPP lineups (Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson), Tom Brady does not have a rushing floor that I used to support my rostering of Pickett and Wilson. Having said that, Tom Brady does have something no one on this slate has other than maybe Patrick Mahomes (likely not in this matchup against Houston) and Justin Herbert have… Volume.
  
  If you’re telling me I’ll lose 20+ rushing yards when rostering Brady over the likes of Kenny Pickett or Russell Wilson, but gain 12+ pass attempts (picture below)… I think that is a fine wash, if not, advantage to Tom Brady. At $5,500 and $6,800 on FanDuel, we do not need Brady to be that good when we have that type of volume.
  
  Yes, this offense has looked horrendous lately, but the Bengals will likely be without their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson and their top cover-corner, Mike Hilton. This situation would be absolute sex on the beach if Tristan Wirfs can suit up for the Bucs, but it doesn’t sound like that will be the case. I’ll take the savings and low ownership that Brady offers in hopes he can go for 18+ at home against a depleted Bengals’ defense.
  
  Stack Options: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones (punt-value if he plays)
  Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – By far the safest running back on this slate going up against the Chargers’ run defense (25th in run defense DVOA). In terms of overall projected touches, Derrick Henry leads the AETY Model projections just in front of Josh Jacobs and James Conner. This is a fantastic matchup and a nice fantasy football environment in what should be an up-paced game in Los Angeles. Henry is a lock in cash games but potentially worthy of a fade in GPPs as he will likely be 40% owned… I’m not sure I have the stomach to fade him in any format.
  
• Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Our concerns with Mixon sharing time with Samaje Perine were warranted last week as this was the first time all season Mixon fell below a 65% snap-share while healthy. Perine was not utilized much in the running game but he did get into the end-zone to upset all of the Mixon chalk fantasy players last week. NFL DFS is a game that we can really take advantage of people’s emotions and I’ll bet Mixon is sub-10% in ownership this week as everyone panics about Perine’s usage.
  
  After re-watching that game, the Bengals left no doubt that Mixon is still their guy when they need to move the football on the ground. Yes, Perine will likely continue to have a solid role in the the passing-game work, but this offense targets the running backs in the passing game more than every team in the NFL besides the Chargers and the Buccaneers. There will be plenty to go around for Mixon.
  
  Lastly, Vita Vea is set to miss another game this week for the Bucs and we saw how much this run defense struggles when he is away as the 49ers just rushed for over 7 yards per carry and 175 total rush yards on the Bucs last week. The Bengals grade 3rd overall in run offense DVOA making this a low-key great spot for Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense as a whole in your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go for a shootout!
  
• Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Honestly, I was surprised to see Kamara show up as this strong of a play in the AETY Model, but without Mark Ingram, there is truly no one behind him. It was nice to also see that the prop market seems to agree this is a fantastic buy-low spot for Kamara as most sportsbooks opened Kamara’s all-purpose yard prop around 93 yards. The AETY Model projects him for 101 all-purpose yards and a significant implied probability of a touchdown. Kamara is in line for a large workload in a must-win game for the Saints against the Falcons 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).
  
• Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Miles Sanders is underpriced for his elite upside he and this Eagles’ offense possess on a weekly basis, especially against the Bears 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Sanders has been on fire of late but we’ll always fear the threat of Jalen Hurts or one of these random backup running backs taking red-zone work away from him. Having said that, Sanders is coming off of the highest snap share he’s had since Week 5… maybe Nick Sirianni is finally unleashing Sanders. Maybe it was a fluke.
  
• Isiah Pachecho ($5,900 DK / $7,600 FD) – A lead running back against the Houston Texans as a two-touchdown favorite. Yes, we’ll see Jerick McKinnon, but this should finally be the spot where we see Pachecho heavily utilized in the red-zone as the Chiefs kill the clock in what should be an absolute blowout.
  
• Zonovan Knight ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – In NFL DFS cash games, you can certainly go back to the well with Zonovan night on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I have no interest in that price. I’ll be fading Zonovan Knight and his 20% ownership tag in GPP contests as I really respect this Detroit Lions’ run defense lately. I tried to call their bluff last week with Dalvin Cook and I won’t make that mistake again… this Lions’ run defense is becoming a thing.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The Bucs secondary is in shambles and Jamel Dean is likely to miss this game. Ja’Maar Chase is the best wide receiver on this slate (honorable mention Davante Adams) and the AETY Model predicts this game to be a high-scoring affair.
  
• CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,100 FD) – This is a fantastic matchup for Dak Prescott and an even better one for CeeDee Lamb. The Jaguars will mainly run a Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense and those are coverages CeeDee Lamb absolutely tears up and is targeted at a significantly higher clip than his already elite baseline. Jaguars’ slot-corner, Darious Williams is going to have his hands full.
  
• Keenan Allen ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD) & Mike Williams ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – We all know Keenan Allen is back as he’s leading the NFL in routes ran over the past three weeks and he’s seen 28 targets in the past two weeks, lol. More importantly, Mike Williams looked 100% healthy and that is going to be a problem for the Titans’ secondary. Both of these wideouts being healthy is a nightmare for opposing secondaries, so we’re looking at a potential double-stack blowup. Mike Williams will tear apart the Titans’ when they run their Cover-1 man defense (they run that a lot) and Keenan Allen should find his way when they drop to Cover-3 zone. I love them both!
  
• Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Godwin is one of four players in the NFL who have over 100 total targets over their past 10 games (Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams). The utilization is too great to ignore and now we get a cake matchup against the Bengals’ secondary who will be without their slot-corner, Mike Hilton. This is damn-near a must-win game for the Bucs and I’m expecting a shootout.
  
• Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you’ve been following Win Daily for a while, you’ll know I do not play Trevor Lawrence against teams that blitz a lot and create a lot of pressure for opposing quarterbacks. However, these are games where I love to roster the Jaguars top pass catcher and slot-receiver, Christian Kirk in what should be a high-scoring football game. This is a GPP play only for your NFL DFS lineups, but the public is going to be off of Christian Kirk because of the matchup against the rookie star corner, DaRon Bland.
  
  Yes, Bland is an absolute stud so far in his young career, but Kirk has had his way with elite slot-cornerbacks in Will Harris (DET), Bryce Callahan (LAC), and the best slot-corner in the NFL, L’Jarius Sneed (KC) where Christian Kirk turned in his best fantasy performance of the year (34.5 DraftKings points). The theme here is that Christian Kirk gets elite usage when he faces teams that blitz a lot, especially when those mix in a lot of Cover-2 zone as well.
  
• Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Another week of mis-priced Garrett Wilson (on DraftKings). Lock him up in your NFL DFS cash game lineups and he offers a significant floor/ceiling combination to consider in GPP builds. Keep in mind, he will be one of the highest owned receivers on the slate.
  
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – I prefer exposure to the running game, but at sub-10% ownership, Smith-Schuster is an excellent pivot away from Wilson chalk. This is a matchup JuJu Smith-Schuster should destroy against Houston’s defense that runs nothing but Cover-2 and some Cover-3. They also refuse to blitz the quarterback. All three situations lead to an increased target-share for the Chiefs’ top wideout.
  
• Chris Moore ($4,200 DK / $6,000 FD) – Looks like the public is going to follow the Week 14 production for Chris Moore. It should be a nice gamescript here for the floor in NFL DFS cash games but I have zero interest in GPP builds.
  
• Elijah Moore ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – All signs point to Corey Davis being OUT this week so we’ll simply use Elijah Moore as cheap exposure to a strong fantasy environment against the Lions’ secondary. Moore has 16 targets in the past two games and is 6th in the NFL in routes ran during that timeframe. We cannot say that about or anything close to that about any other wide receiver in that $3K price range. He’d be the Discord Diamond, but he won’t be 1% owned… and as of now, I do not have a 1% diamond this week.
  
  *Moving off of Elijah Moore with Zach Wilson.
  
  Discord Diamond is officially: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Discord for more details).

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Michael Gallup, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
  
• Dalton Schultz ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second top-option on this slate for the tight-end position but at a significant discount from Kelce. I’ve wrote enough about the Cowboys’ passing attack but I love this spot for Schultz as well, as he destroys Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone, just like CeeDee Lamb. Do I hear a double stack?
  
• Greg Dulcich ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – I won’t get into all of the statistics from Brett Rypien’s sample size in the NFL, but I will summarize it: He abuses the tight-end! A week after Dulcich was a bit of a let-down and 35% owned in all formats, NO ONE will go back to him this week solely because of said let-down and no Russell Wilson. What happened to everyone picking on Arizona against tight-ends? They still rate 30th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and now we have a quarterback who will target him more than Wilson did. I don’t get why anyone would just cross his name off their tight-end list.
  
• Chig Okonkwo ($3,100 DK / $5,100 FD) – It is absolutely disgusting to see all of the public now on the guy we invented weeks ago on the livestream, but as discussed last week, if Okonkwo had a big day against the Jaguars (we wished that he didn’t), he would be the stone chalk in Week 15 against the Chargers. Play him in cash. In GPPs, I guess it’s fine as long as Treylon Burks is out, but chalk, punt tight-ends never seem to end well. On the bright side, he is a stud and Derwin James is OUT for the Chargers.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Derrick Henry
• Zonovan Knight
• Justin Herbert
• Chris Godwin
• Denver Broncos

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