NFL DFS Divisional Round Weekend: Stix Picks

Happy last full “slate” of the NFL DFS season! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is going to be a little different than normal. I’ll simply list all of the players that I believe are “notable” players for this weekend’s slates of games and my thoughts on said players (price, ownership, etc.).

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

• Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD) – AETY Model’s top quarterback on this slate against a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. He’ll be my main option for my lineups this weekend despite ownership. This is the best passing offense in football coming off of a “bye” week. Let’s ride.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

• Christian McCaffrey ($8,000 DK / $9,200 FD) – He’s expensive and has a tough matchup on paper, but no one is more likely to see 20+ touches on this slate than Christian McCaffrey.
  
• Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – With the anticipated gamescript, we’ll really need to bank on Etienne finally getting more involved in the passing game against a Chiefs’ defense that bleed production through the air to opposing running backs (most receptions allowed to running backs in the 2022 NFL season). On the bright side, it doesn’t appear that JaMychal Hasty will cut into the workload for Etienne as he ran zero routes last week and played just 12% of the team’s snaps. Etienne is one of the few running backs with guaranteed 15+ touches in the workload.
  
• Miles Sanders ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – As much as I hate rostering 2022-2023 Miles Sanders in NFL DFS, I’m going to take the bait on the price savings for a close-to three-down running back. The Eagles’ offensive line is healthy and should provide a significant mismatch the the Giants’ and their dead-last ranked run defense (DVOA). I will simply not get cute at the running back position this week. I want guaranteed touches and Sanders’ with the above two running backs check that box.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Isiah Pachecho

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

• Stefon Diggs ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD) – Core play for me this week at the WR1 spot against Cameron Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple on the outside.
  
• Christian Kirk ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – The Jaguars’ top pass-catcher in a matchup against the Chiefs’ corner Trent McDuffie who’s given up over a 120 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks of late when targeted. I’m building to the narrative of a Kansas City ass-whoopin’ and the Jaguars playing catch-up early.
  
• Deebo Samuel ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – Too cheap for the explosive upside (as we saw last week). I don’t love the matchup, but Deebo Samuel offers a significant upgrade against all coverage schemes the Cowboys will likely run. As in Deebo fashion, he will be a boom or bust play.
  
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,100 DK / $6,600 FD) – Going up against Tre Herndon for the Jaguars is a coverage advantage the AETY Model loves for NFL DFS lineups. It looks like we’re going to get JuJu around 10% ownership for this full-slate and I’ll be all aboard. Don’t look at the box score of their last matchup as Smith-Schuster was knocked out off that game in the second quarter with a concussion. Core play for me this weekend.
  
• Kadarius Toney ($4,100 DK / $5,800 FD) – Nothing to write home about but I love the boom/bust ability of Kadarius Toney who should also see a lot of Tre Herndon in coverage. The snaps will likely be limited (per usual) but coming off of the bye week, we should anticipate a lot more designed plays for the game-breaker Kadarius Toney.
  
• Michael Gallup ($3,800 DK / $5,700 FD) – If we’re looking for savings, Michael Gallup is going to be my go-to guy in our classic matchup against Deommodore Lenoir. He’s no DK Metcalf, but he’s not priced like him and has lead this Cowboys’ receiving core in end-zone targets over the past 6 weeks.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James Jr.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

• Travis Kelce ($7,700 DK / $8,000 FD) – The clear-cut TE1 on this slate by a mile. The Jaguars ranked dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and we know no one at the position has the floor/ceiling combo of Travis Kelce.
  
• George Kittle ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – Sub-10% George Kittle this weekend… I’m not really into it, but it’s a way to get different in NFL DFS GPP builds for multiple touchdown upside.
  
• Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,300 FD) – The Giants’ are 31st in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight-ends. The public (and likely myself) will take the savings of Miles Sanders or AJ Brown and overlook the terrific value Dallas Goedert brings to the table.
  
• Noah Gray ($2,500 DK ONLY) – It’s disgusting, but we know the Jaguars struggle with all route running tight-ends and Noah Gray surprisingly runs over 20 routes per game. He luck-boxed into the end-zone in this matchup earlier this season, but I will not be banking on that happening again. I’m using Noah Gray as a punt-play to open up salary relief for the others in this article in hopes he can get three receptions for 30+ yards… a touchdown will have the discord jumping!

Honorable Mention: Evan Engram

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

I don’t really care what you do on defense this week, but I’d rank them as follows:

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
8. New York Giants

The Fab Five (DK GPP)

• Patrick Mahomes
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Stefon Diggs
• Christian Kirk
• Noah Gray

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