DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The WM Phoenix Open played out perhaps even better than the PGA Tour could have hoped. As we moved into our first full field designated event for 2023, the leaderboard was littered with studs. Although we don’t expect him to feature, it will be great to see Tiger Woods return to play here. But, it is worthy to know that a few value plays can still pop through for a ceiling week. Nick Taylor played brilliantly all week, even shooting a 65 in the final round, and still came up short of a resurgent Scottie Scheffler. It is a promising reminder that there is still value to find in these events as we move into our Genesis Invitational Picks.
We had a very live chance in Xander Schauffele as our favourite play for the week. Schauffele was one off the lead 2/3rd of the way through Saturday. An untimely bogey on the 13th was a stopper to his momentum. He never ever really recovered. The final round still showed promise with decent approach numbers. 6 of 9 putts missed by less than 25 inches truly put paid to his chances. It happens.
Jhonnatan Vegas continues to show a quick return to form following his planned surgery in August last year. Sitting within the top 10 through the first 3 rounds, a final round 73 saw him move backwards through the field. It does, however, mark consecutive top 25s for Vegas. He secured us another Top 40 cash. More on him shortly as he makes our Genesis Invitational picks.
Course Analysis & Comp Courses for our Genesis Invitational Picks
Much like TPC Scottsdale, we have plenty of data from The Riviera Country Club to aid our Genesis Invitational picks this week. Scottie Scheffler only aided to the fact prior course form has some of the highest correlation to future success at the WM Phoenix Open compared to anywhere on tour. Nearly as much weight should placed on this here for our Genesis Invitational picks.
Riviera remains highly correlated, even though less so than TPC Scottsdale. This iconic course demands a variety of shots in each direction. You will really find a flat approach shot on the course. Despite the large green complexes in excess of 7,500 sq ft on average, precise approach play is still required. The greens here play very firm and fast. Akin to the fairways, they are highly undulated and protected by deep bunkers. The reduction in greens in regulation compared to other tour stops can be further explained by this ranking in the 5 most difficult courses to find (and hold) the fairway.
Along with past form here, for our Genesis Invitational picks the parallels to Augusta National are obvious. So often this has provided a great guide to The Masters. TPC San Antonio also provides a guide, with both courses sharing a high correlation to success from around the green play. Copperhead, host of the Valspar Championship, also fits the eye here with narrow tree lined fairways and the need for shot shaping.
Weather
It is worth noting the course superintendent makes reference to the heavy rainfall experienced in LA so far this year. The first three weeks of 2023 saw 10.25″ of rain, for a city which receives on average 11.7″ for an entire year. Although there has been some respite the last week, you would have to imagine the course will be lush. It is doubtful the course will play very soft, but may not be as penal as we expect and should guide our Genesis Invitational picks.
It does look very cold this week in LA. Both mornings indicate temperatures in the single digits Celsius (low 40s). Thursday morning looks particularly cold at 4C (40F) and gusty. The wind should ease a little as the day goes on as well as temperatures rising in the forecast sun. Friday AM looks slightly warmer from 9C (48F) and again warming as the day goes on. Winds should be fairly consistent all day Friday.
I do note that despite Poa Annua having a tendency to get bumpy and inconsistent after foot traffic, the mornings do look tough particularly on Thursday. I suspect Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will get a slight advantage this week of between 0.5-0.8 strokes.
https://www.windy.com/34.046/-118.502?icon,33.526,-118.502,8,m:eBTacRE
Genesis Invitational Picks
Suggested Staking
Justin Thomas
2.5pts E/W $17.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
Si Woo Kim
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33
Alex Noren
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00
Wyndham Clark
1pt E/W $101.00 (6 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.35
Jhonattan Vegas
0.5pts E/W $201.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $5.75
Golfer Profiles
Justin Thomas – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Favourite
Justin Thomas headlines our selections this week. Although a name widely floated in the industry this week, it is our view it is for good reason. A string of mediocre tournaments of approach play led to a 6 months at the end of 2022 where he managed just one top 5, coming in a strong but reduced field of the Tour Championship at that.
Typically a hallmark of JT’s impending success, the approach play looks to be back. Thomas is 3rd in the world across the last two years for SG: APP from 150-200 yards, the key distance to target here. Having gained over 4 strokes on approach at the Farmers Insurance Open, JT continued to show improvement last week. Having lost SG: APP in round 1, Thomas then was 13th for SG: APP in round 3 and lead the field by some margin in round 4.
2nd, 6th, and 9th here ticks the course form box as do a raft of top 25 or better finishes at the other comp courses. What never went missing was his elite short game, having not lost for SG: ATG since June 2022. He looks primed for success and arrives at a track that suits his game perfectly.
Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton arrives in excellent form at a course that should suit his game well. Hatton was 4th for SG: APP last week and also gained a huge number of strokes on the field through driving accuracy. All provide indicators of a player comfortable with his swing as he finished 6th in a strong field.
The only thing that held him from a win was an outlier week around and on the greens. Ranking 14th in SG: Putt and 22nd for SG: ATG in this field suggest we should see some reversion to his long-term mean.
The main factor that looks to influence his price this week is a sole appearance here for a missed cut. Hatton has an excellent record at Emirates Golf Club, which is highly correlated to Augusta National and complementary to here. I prefer to look at the fact he has played here before as a positive, as he arrives at a course that rewards short game and his approach numbers suit too.
Si Woo Kim
Correlated course form jumps off the page for Si Woo Kim, who is enjoying a rich vein of form. Following his Sony Open victory, Si Woo has secured three consecutive top 25 finishes. Those results have come at a variety of courses, from the shorter tracks at The American Express to the long Torrey Pines.
Si Woo has a 3rd here previously, a record of 4-23-13 at TPC San Antonio, and a recent 12th at The Masters. Despite lacking distance on some of his peers in this field, he is long enough to be competitive. Across the weekend at the Phoenix Open, Si Woo was 2nd and 11th for SG: OTT. In the key approach metric, Si Woo is 11th in the world over the last year for SG: APP from 150-200 yards. And, he has certainly previously found joy on these tricky putting surfaces:
Alex Noren
Alex Noren squeaked into the Genesis Invitational picks this week just ahead of Fleetwood, Power, Hossler, and JJ Spaun. Part of that is a nagging feeling that we didn’t see the best of him last week and to dismiss his credentials on the basis of that may be short-sighted.
Noren missed the cut on the number, hampered by a poor opening round in tricky conditions. The 2nd round was much improved, sitting 10th in SG: APP and making a decent charge at making the weekend. He is 24th for SG: ATG over the last 2 years and 5th for SG: PUTT. That then goes to 1st for SG: PUTT, 21st for SG: APP, and 7th for SG: TOTAL if looking at a shorter 3 month time frame.
Alongside Emirates Golf Club form, Noren has never missed a cut here including a 12th and 16th. A 12th and 21st at the Valspar Championship in his two appearances is a further boost here.
Wyndham Clark – Our Genesis Invitational Picks Best Value
In our 2022 season recap, I predicted that both Aaron Wise and Wyndham Clark looked set for a big year. Clark has already begun to show some of that promise in what could well become his best season.
Clark sits 3rd in this field for SG: ATG, 16th for SG: T2G, and 19th for SG: TOTAL over the last 3 months. Most eye-catching is the improvement of his iron play: his perennial pitfall thus far. He was 7th for SG: APP last week in the stacked WM Phoenix Open field when eventually finishing 10th. That follows improvement of 15th in that metric at the Farmers Insurance Open.
He already holds a 17th and 8th here (followed by a DQ for signing an incorrect scorecard). For a course which has proven difficult for debutants, that shows a lot of potential. Should it all come together, this could be the venue of a surprise breakthrough victory.
Jhonattan Vegas
As promised, we round out our Genesis Invitational Picks with Jhonny Vegas. It remains to be seen what Vegas needs to do to see a shortening in price. We are happy to include him for the third consecutive tournament until it does, as there is certainly value to be had here.
Per our previous write-ups, Vegas had planned surgery following the end of season playoffs. It looks to have paid dividends near immediately, with consecutive top 25 finishes. Vegas continues to display excellent approach metrics, has gained SG: OTT in his last 11 starts, and has seen an uptick in driving accuracy since his return.
Vegas was 7th for SG: ATG at the WM Phoenix Open and 5th for SG: OTT. There were also flashes with his iron play, with round 3 a finish for SG: APP 18th also notable. He looks to be in decent form and arrives at an event where he has finished 15th and 12th previously. Sitting as long as 250/1 without places he is well worth a look here having not done much wrong since return, arriving at perhaps a better fit for his game, and presenting great value.
For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/
