WGC Matchplay Picks 2023: All You Need to Know

Another MASSIVE winner in Taylor Moore (+7000) for us last week at the Valspar Championship. As well as Wyndham Clark finishing 5th in our selections and the Kitayama win recently, that takes our PGA Tour return on investment to a mind-blowing +87% and up over +250 units. Of course, it is perhaps a tad unrealistic to expect that rate to continue for the remainder of the year. However, as typically we recommend about 25 units of spend, we now have a runway of over 10 weeks where we could lose every single bet and still be in profit. It all emphatically serves as a great indication for our WGC Matchplay picks.

Undoubtedly, it is a travesty that this event is even proposed to be cut by the PGA Tour. The WGC Matchplay offers one of perhaps just a half-dozen instances a year where we experience a different format. Yes, certainly matchplay is volatile. No, you won’t get all of the studs playing all the matches. Sure, the last day can leave some dead air with only two matches on the course.

Surely solving this should not be difficult. “The Match” has been a huge and well-watched event. Why not simply schedule 8 celebrities play the final two days? Seed the 8 celebrities based on their handicaps and have them play the Top 8 Saturday, with final 4 and consolation matches on the Sunday. You would draw additional audience and attention, as well as making winning “The Match” actually mean something. You’re welcome. Rant over, and onto our WGC Matchplay picks.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Austin Country Club has been the host of this event since 2016. This unique Pete Dye design course has some nuances, as often seen in his shaping. This somewhat explains the course specialist element we see recurring here. Perhaps it is more likely that Kevin Kisner is, in fact, not a matchplay specialist, but actually just very suited to this type of track.

In reality, Kisner plays a pretty key form line to other comp courses. Certainly, heavy correlation can be found between Austin and Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands. All are positional courses, where accuracy reigns supreme over driving distance, and are key guides for our WGC Matchplay picks.

In addition to driving accuracy, putting should play a large part to success this week. Certainly, there will be opportunities in any matchplay tournament where you can make a long birdie putt to put pressure on your opponent. And, concurrently, the player who manages to make the 8 foot putt to square a hole can gain momentum. Moreover, approach play will be imperative. That can add additional to that pressure on your opponent.

Finally, I would caution on simply ruling out a player from your WGC Matchplay picks solely based on their prior history here. However, this is a volatile event. On average, you will see just 5 out of 16 top seeds emerge from their respective pools. It is worthy diving into some of those results deeper before ruling out a playing entirely.

For the latest weather, you can check here.

Optimal WGC Matchplay Picks for DFS & Brackets

Although this article primarily focuses on analysis and golf betting selections, I will add a note here on DFS strategy. This is one of the best weeks to play DFS. The reason is that a large percentage of brackets will be ruled out immediately before a ball has even been struck.

The below selections should NOT be built in a single DFS lineup. The optimal strategy is to have your four players reach the final four, with the other two selections having made it to the Top 8 before losing to another of your picks.

This can be summarized in three rules:

1. Have a clear path to the final 4 for 4 picks. I.e. at least one golfer in each quarter of the bracket.
2. Do not select two golfers from the same group.
3. Do not select two golfers from adjacent groups.

You can find (and play!) in the WinDaily Sports Bracket Challenge here. The code is winbig.

Significantly, I have already seen quite a few lineups out there that are not optimal and are dead on arrival. Obviously, do not let your lineups become the rake for everyone else! Given that, if you need help please feel free to send me your lineup in the WinDaily Discord here. I’ll be happy to check the lineup is optimal for you.

WGC Matchplay Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Jon Rahm
2.5pts WIN +1100 Draftkings/MGM
2.5pts Top 4 +300 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +1100 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Patrick Cantlay – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200
2.5pts Top 4 +500 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Jordan Spieth
2pts Win +2500 Draftkings/MGM
2pts Top 4 +650 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Cameron Young
2pts Win +3300 MGM
2pts Top 4 +650
or 2pts E/W +3300 Unibet (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt Win +7000 Draftkings
1pt Top 4 +1600 Draftkings
or 2pt E/W +6600 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pts Win Group +300 MGM

Matt Kuchar
0.5pts Win +9000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +1800
or 0.5pts E/W +9000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pts Win Group +350 MGM

Victor Perez – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Best Value
0.5pts Win +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +2500 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 8 +1100 Unibet
And
2pts Win Group +450 Fanduel

Thank you reading our 2023 WGC Matchplay picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!