by Dave Gloeckner

We hit 2 out of 3 prop bets yesterday and ended up +1.5 units on the day. We were 10 feet away from a sweep as Alvarez hit his game winning double to the deepest part of the park which turned a potential HR to a double. But good to have a winning day (add to that the Marlins ML and Dodgers/Diamondbacks NRFI that I gave out on YouTube) and we look to build off that.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

MATASAKA YOSHIDA over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-150 DK)

Matasaka Yoshida impressed in his debut with the BoSox by going 2 for 5 with 2 RBI’s. Today, he faces another RHP that struggled in 2022 in Dean Kramer. Add to that this is the highest total on the board, at 9.5, and I feel good taking a hitter in the middle of a potent lineup.

MATT CHAPMAN over 0.5 hits (-140 DK)

The Blue Jays lineup is projected to be the best hitting unit all season. And they didn’t disappoint on Opening Day. Matt Chapman was in the center of that going 3 for 5. Plus he’s one of only a few batters that has faced Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty. And he’s 1 for 3 in his career off the St Louis righty.

YOAN MONCADA over 0.5 HR’s (+600 DK)

The pitcher with the highest fly ball rate on the slate today is Jose Urquidy who makes his team debut for the Astros. There are a few White Sox hitters that have value in my home run model but I’m going to go with Yoan Moncada. He’s not a volume home run hitter but he’s started this year 4 for 9 with a 66.7% hard hit percentage. He also had a 44% fly ball rate last year. Mix that with Urquidy’s high FB% rate and our predictions have him at 14% chance to homer today which is more typical of a +450 line.

PETE ALONSO over 0.5 HR’s (+550 DK)

This is simply a good batter vs pitcher history. Alonso has faced Cabrera 9 times and has hit 3 home runs. Additionally, Cabrera is susceptible to the long ball as he has the 2nd highest HR/FB% on the slate today at 15.4%, Disregard what Pete Alonso wears to games and let’s just focus on his home run hitting ability.

PITCHER PROPS

NICK LODOLO over 6.5 K’s (-120 DK)

Last season the Pirates led the league in K rate versus LHP’s. Even pitchers such as Patrick Corbin had success against the Pirates. In rolls LHP Nick Lodolo who had an 11.41 K/9 inning rate last season (highest of SP’s today). The Pirates have made changes in their lineup but I’m willing to bet their failures last season are still prevalent in 2023.

PATRICK SANDOVAL under 4.5 hits (-110 DK)

Sandoval had an impressive 2022 season finishing with a 2.91 ERA. And then he continued that this spring as he starred for team Mexico in the WBC. Today he faces the A’s who despite their Opening Day victory over the Angels, are one of the least feared lineups in baseball. Also, Sandoval has dominated the A’s by flashing a 1.84 ERA in 8 career outings.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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