Dave Gloeckner 
The MLB is off to a great start in 2023 with their newly implemented rules. We’re seeing faster baseball (almost 35 minutes less per game) and more steals as well as more runs produced by singles than in years past. Oh year, scoring is up too which is what every league aims for (obviously within reason and still maintaining integrity).
We’re back at it today on WinDaily Sports for MLB DFS picks. This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card tonight begins at 7:05 pm with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and the earlier games will be captured in Discord.
One note for today is that we enter the first day in which SP’s from Opening Day are available to pitch again. Some teams have opted to use a 4-man rotation and pitch their #1’s on regular rest. And some are sticking to a 5-man (or 6-man) rotation. That’s more important from a betting standpoint but just something to be aware of for pitching since there is potential for a pitcher in their 2nd start to be allowed to throw more pitches today.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
MAX SCHERZER ($10,800 DK)
To start, this is more of a play against Milwaukee. They are 26th in ISO, 16th in wOBA & wRC+, and 6th in K rate. They’ve hit only 2 home runs but have the highest walk percentage in the league. I don’t see the walk factor helping tonight as Scherzer walked only 1.49 batters per 9 innings in 2022. And the Brewers are not a speedy team (only 3 SB’s in 5 games) which means they rely on power to generate runs. Looking at Scherzer, he allowed 0.81 HR’s/9 innings in 2022. So this isn’t necessarily a good matchup for Milwaukee given their offensive structure.
As for Scherzer, it’s not that I don’t love rostering him in general. I just don’t like paying $10,800 this early in the season. But because of the matchup as well as the fact that Max can generate K’s and likely has 90+ pitches in him (threw 91 in the opener vs Miami), his price tag is fair and reasonable today.
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($9900 DK)
Valdez is my favorite arm on the slate tonight. He’s $900 cheaper than Scherzer and is facing the worst offensive team in baseball in the Tigers. Detroit has scored just 10 runs in 4 games and is 29th in DRC. They also have the lowest batting average in the league at 0.169 and the 4th highest K rate at 28.1%. Those are dream numbers for any opposing pitcher, especially an ace of a staff like Valdez. In his first start, Framber picked up where he left off in 2022 but allowing 0 ER’s and getting 12 GB’s and only 5 FB’s. Look for Valdez to get his first QS of the year tonight and rack up 6+ K’s. Add to that Houston is -300 favorite and the potential for a win is the highest of any SP on the board (4 extra DFS points).
Note: Valdez threw 85 pitches in his first start. Expecting a slightly longer leash tonight.
LUIS CASTILLO ($9500 DK)
Of all the pitchers on tonight’s slate, Luis Castillo has the highest WAR in 2023 at 0.4. He threw a gem against a quality team in the Guardians last week going 6 innings and allowing just 1 hit and 0 ER’s. Tonight, he faces the Angels who have racked up 26 runs in their past 3 games. But they haven’t faced an ace yet as their opening series was against the Oakland A’s who have one of the worst staff’s in the MLB. I think Castillo will be able to continue his early season success against the Angels and build off his lone start against LA last year where he racked up 9 K’s. Without Rendon, the Angels lineup looks very similar to it’s 2022 counterpart which was very susceptible to K’s.
DOMINGO GERMAN ($7700 DK)
In the mid-tier range, German looks like the pitcher with the highest floor. The Phillies are last in DRC+ and have scored just 2 runs in the past 2 games. Their lineup looks severely impacted by the Hoskins and Harper injuries. Add to that German fared better at home last year (2-1 vice 0-4 on the road) and you have a decent spot to attack a lineup that needs help.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
YUSEI KIKUCHI ($6700 DK)
This is a daring play, but one that will be under the radar and has a moderate ceiling. Kikuchi has struggled in his career with command. His career ERA is a touch over 5.00 and his walk ratio is 3.7 per 9 innings. But he did look good in spring training by striking out 25 batters in 18 innings of work. His control was touchy but the rest was good enough to earn him a spot in the Jays rotation.
Tonight, he faces the Royals who are batting 0.182 against LHP’s and have struck out in 50% of at bats against southpaws. It’s obviously early and those numbers will change. But to date we see a lineup that has an average walk rate (11%) and a bad batting average (0.179). So there’s a chance we could see the good Kikuchi tonight which could produce on the order of 20 DK points.
NOTE: Kikuchi pitched once against KC last year and didn’t get out of the 1st. Again, high risk and potential high reward here as that is undoubtedly on the Jays SP’s mind tonight.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JULIO URIAS ($10,200 DK) tonight against the Rockies and ANDREW HEANEY ($8900 DK) against the Orioles. These pitchers will also be in my roster pool but at lower percentages than my core pitchers above.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: A heavy Guardians stack won the $60K GPP last night on DK. In fact, the winner had 5 batters from Cleveland’s lineup which is higher than we normally see in bigger slates. With that said, the stack is still a formula to success for winning both GPP’s and cash.
The two stacks I’ll be building around (primarily) are the Tampa Bay Rays (vs Washington) and the St Louis Cardinals (vs Atlanta). First off Tampa is facing Chad Kruhl who posted a Patrick Corbin level ERA last season of 5.71. And now he joins Corbin in DC to round out a bad rotation. As for the Ray, they are 6th in the league in wOBA and 5th in DRC+. Looking at St Louis, they are facing a minor league pitcher in Dylan Dodd. The Cards also lead the league in wOBA, wRC+ and Batting Average.
CORE BATTERS
STARLING MARTE ($5100 DK)
It’s hard to ignore Marte’s career numbers off Milwaukee SP Wade Miley. In 24 plate appearances, Marte is batting 0.409 off Miley with a 0.458 OBP. Plus, he has been on base 6 times and already attempted 3 steals. So the potential for an added SB increases his value even more.
BRIAN REYNOLDS ($5200 DK)
The Pirates OF is coming off a two-home run game on Monday where he racked up 33 DK points. He’s now batting 0.353 on the season to pair with 3 home runs. Add to that he’s facing a Boston staff that has a 7.50 ERA, good for 28th in the MLB.
NOLAN GORMAN ($3600 DK)
The Cardinals 2B leads all MLB in DRC+ according to Baseball Prospectus. He’s batting 0.500 with 2 home runs, 5 walks, and 6 RBI’s. Tonight, he faces the lowest salaried pitcher on the slate in Dylan Dodd which is an added bonus. You may stack the Cards main batters but don’t forget to sprinkle in Gorman in those lineups.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
LUKE RALEY ($2300 DK)
Raley found himself in the middle of the Rays order on Monday night and produced with a two-home run game. Expect him to be back in a similar spot in the lineup and at $2300 is a true value considering the opponent and the fact his team is off to an impressive start with the bats.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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