by Dave Gloeckner

As is the name of the article, we hit big on Gopher balls yesterday racking up two plus number prop bets with a Mountcastle and Riley dinger. But the other bets were flat and we only ended up +1.05 units on the day. That brings our season total to +3.9 units which is a solid start but could be much better. I still haven’t been able to adjust to the pitchers and how they have fared with the new pitch clock (Scherzer I’m looking at you!) but that changes today!

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

NOLAN GORMAN over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (+110 DK)

I wanted to play Nolan Gorman yesterday but the Cards decided to give him a day off. The redbirds third baseman is batting 0.500 and has 15 hits+runs+rbis in 4 games for an average close to 4/gm. Let’s ride the hot streak while it’s here and hope a day off didn’t cool him down.

TREA TURNER over 0.5 SB’s (+180 DK)

Trea Turner got his first stolen base of the 2023 MLB season yesterday against the Yankees. Today he faces Gerrit Cole who was dynamite in this first start of the season. But he did allow a stolen base to the Giants despite giving up just 3 hits. In fact, SB success rate off Cole was 80% coming into this season. And runners have attempted 3 steals against NYY catcher Jose Trevino in 2023, and they are 3 for 3.

Turner has a hit in every game this season so as long as that streak continues, I see a SB in his future.

IAN HAPP over 0.5 HR’s (+425 DK)

Reds SP Hunter Greene is a flame thrower. But when hitters make contact, it’s often a fly ball as he allows a 48.5% fly ball rate. Additionally, 1/3 of those fly balls typically find the stands. So here’s banking on Ian Happ today to perform the aforementioned feat against Greene. Happ is 2 for 5 with 1 HR in his career against Greene.

MIKE TROUT over 0.5 HR’s (+250 Caesars)

We’re fading another MLB pitcher who allows more flyballs than grounders. Mariners SP Chris Flexen allows 46% of his at bats to end in a fly ball. Which lines up perfectly for Mike Trout today who does have 1 career HR off Flexen. Trout is coming into today with a 4-game hitting streak and is batting 0.462 over that stretch.

PITCHER PROPS

CHRISTIAN JAVIER over 7.5 K’s (-140 DK)

The Tigers have beat the Astros in two straight games and are looking for the sweep today. However, they still strike out at an alarming rate as they rank 3rd highest in the MLB in that category. Valdez recorded 9 K’s last night and Javier has a better K rate. So we’ll ride with the Astros SP today and hope he can be efficient as the only thing holding him back today will be control issues.

PABLO LOPEZ over 6.5 K’s (-120 DK)

Speaking of the Tigers, the team with the highest K rate in the MLB is the Miami Marlins at 31.7%. In comes Pablo Lopez who was traded from the Marlins to the Twins in the offseason. Lopez opened his 2023 campaign with 8 K’s in 5 1/3 innings of work. This is a revenge matchup as well as a numbers one so we’ll ride with the SP with motivation today against his former team.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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