Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
With more and more teams opting for 6:40 start times, the main slate has started to become smaller and smaller. Tonight’s main slate is just 8-games, but that makes for a much more manageable slate of MLB DFS. We have Coors and we also have Corbin on the hill vs. a very good Angels lineup. We also have a repeat of the NL Wild Card round from last year the Padres making their way to Citi Field. This is shaping up to be a fun slate of MLB DFS.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Julio Urias vs. San Francisco Giants
So far to start the year, the Giants have really struggled vs. lefties. Through their first 60 AB vs. lefties, they’ve hit just .153 with just 1 homer. They also have a 40% strike-out rate and just a .213 wOBA. This is an attackable team right now vs. lefties and we’ll attack them with one of the best lefties in the game in Julio Urias.
Urias has had a solid start to the season. He’s sporting a nearly 28% k rate and an xFIP of just 2.72. When hitters have put the ball in play, he’s done an excellent job of limiting the damage by getting them to put the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his nearly 52% groundball rate. He should be able to dominate this Giants lineup tonight.
Luis Castillo vs. Chicago Cubs
Luis Castillo has started out the season with some impressive numbers. Through his first 2 starts of the season, Castillo is sporting a 30% K rate, while having an xFIP just over 3. He’s still yet to give up an ER and I doubt that continues too much longer, but with a date with the Chicago Cubs, an extension of his innings scoreless streak very well could continue tonight.
While the Cubs haven’t been awful to start the year, they are still an average at best lineup and one that Castillo should be able to handle with relative ease. A double ace combo of Urias and Castillo very well could be the combo that gets you to the winner’s circle tonight. A combined 50 points from the two is very well attainable.
Bryce Elder vs. Cincinnati Reds
If you want to go the cheap route tonight with one of your pitchers, Bryce Elder is more than likely the play. In his lone outing this season, he looked absolutely dominant vs. the Cardinals. In that start, he went 6 innings without allowing a single run. He also struck out 6 and gave up just 2 hits. The lineup that he’ll face tonight against the Reds will be far weaker than what he saw a week ago vs. the Cardinals. Can he do it again at just $6.6k? It’s absolutely in the realm of possibilities.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Before I get into my stacks I want to touch on Coors. Both teams are 100% in play. Anytime a team is playing in Coors, they are in play and you just don’t need me to tell you that. My goal here is to provide you with other options and that’s what I’ll be doing. I don’t want that to take away from the fact that both teams in Coors tonight have phenomenal matchups.
Seattle Mariners vs. Drew Smyly
Drew Smyly’s first start of the season could not have gone any worse. Against the Reds, he went just 4 innings and gave up 6 ER and 9 hits. It was a struggle for him right from the very start of the game and with facing a much better Mariners lineup tonight, we very well could expect to see the same thing.
The only thing that Smyly had going for him in that initial outing was that he was able to limit Reds hitters from inducing hard contact as they had a 16% hard-hit rate. One might say the BABIP gods weren’t in his favor. When you allow a nearly 81% contact rate though, you’re just asking for trouble and he’ll see some trouble tonight.
Core: My core with the Mariners tonight will be Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and AJ Pollock. 3 of the 4 guys have long track records of being able to hit lefties well. Hernandez last year absolutely annihilated lefties with a .450 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He’s one of my favorite bats on the board tonight and should excel in this matchup. Rodriguez has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games and a world of upside tonight.
Secondary: Other than my core with the Mariners, I’ll also look to add in guys like Sam Haggerty, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh. All three of them have good to solid numbers vs. lefties and should also do well in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin
You knew I was going to go here right? If Corbin is on the mound, I’m stacking against him and that awful Nationals bullpen. Corbin has now thrown in 2 games and has an ERA of 8. While that seems high, his xFIP of nearly 5 does indicate that he’s awful. After giving up a 64% groundball rate in his first outing, he ended up giving up way more line drives and fly balls in his second out. If that continues tonight, he’s going to get rocked by a team that has done extremely well vs. lefties this season so far. So far in 2023, the Angels have an OPS of .946 and a wOBA over .400.
Core: The obvious part of the core here is going to be Trout and Ohtani. Nothing that I can say here will do their talents justice. They are two of the best in the game. I’m also going to add Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe to my core. Hunter Renfroe lines up extremely well tonight with Corbin. Over the past few seasons, he has a .423 ISO vs. lefty sinkers and a .577 wOBA. He’s going to homer tonight.
Secondary/Value: Other important bats here will be Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon. They should both smash in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Wade Miley
Wade Miley is coming off a shutout of the New York Mets. Even though he gave up 0 runs in that start, his xFIP for the start was well over 5. To go along with his 3 k’s in 6 innings, he also gave up a 48% flyball rate. Giving up flyballs almost half the time is asking for trouble and this Diamondbacks team has some sneaky power vs. lefties.
Core: We’ll want to get Christian Walker, Evan Longoria, and Lourdes Gurriel into our lineups tonight. Walker had a .232 ISO vs. lefties last season and a wOBA over .350. I’m also very intrigued by Gurriel tonight. He lines up very well with Miley. Miley throws his cutter more than 40% of the time to righties. This is a pitcher that Gurriel has handled well in his career. Over the last few years, he has a .429 ISO vs. it and a wOBA of .482.
Secondary Value: We’ll also want some shares of guys like Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte. They’ll all have the platoon advantage and that’s extremely key when a lefty is on the mound, especially one in Miley. Miley is dominant vs. lefties but can be beaten by righties.
MLB DFS Summary
Even though this is a Coor’s slate, we’ll have plenty of options tonight. There’s going to be lots of offense to go around.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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