Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Wednesday and that means we have a split slate on our hands. There’s a 5-game starting at 1pm est and an 8-game slate starting at 6:35pm est. This article will be focused solely on the main slate of MLB DFS starting this evening. It’s a doozy with some clear mismatches.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Bryce Elder vs. Miami Marlins
The pick on the Marlins tour turns to Bryce Elder tonight. So far in this series we’ve seen Spencer Strider strike out 13 and Charlie (AARP cardholder) Morton strike out 9. While Elder doesn’t necessarily have the K upside that Strider and Morton have, he has been consistent with at least 6 K’s in 3 of his 4 starts this season.
With facing the Marlins and their 24% K rate vs. righties, there’s definitely a chance for Elder to grab a couple of extra strikeouts tonight. His price has started to get up there at $9.4k, but that matchup tonight speaks for itself. He should be able to pay off his salary tonight.
Steven Matz vs. San Francisco Giants
I said this the other day with Jordan Montgomery, lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season. Montgomery went on to have a pretty nice outing, striking out 6 through 6 innings and not allowing a single earned run. We’ll continue to pick on them with competent lefties and tonight we’ll do so with the kid from Long Island, Steven Matz.
Matz being only $6k on DK tonight makes him arguably the top-value pitcher tonight. He may not net us 30 points tonight, but he’s been over 10 in 3 of his first 4 starts and the one he didn’t was in Colorado so he gets somewhat of a pass. He has 13 K’s over his last 2 games and with facing a team that has a 31% K rate vs. lefties tonight, he has extreme upside at this price.
In full transparency, these are the only 2 arms I’m looking at tonight. Other arms that may do ok are Logan Gilbert and Kodai Senga. Senga’s biggest issue has been walks. If he can get some more control of his pitches, he should dominate but he’s definitely struggling with command.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Wacha
After shutting out the Braves on April 8, the world has essentially fallen apart for Michael Wacha. Over his last 2 starts, Wacha has allowed an impressive 12 ER in just over 8 innings of work. Also over those 2 starts, he’s allowed 21 hits. He’s struggling to get hitters out right now and they are getting good wood on him as he’s allowed 9 barrels this season.
I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as Wacha has been bad vs. both sides. That said, he’s been brutal vs. lefties this season as they have a .382 ISO and a .460 wOBA.
The bats I’m mostly interested in here will be Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Nico Hoerner. Happ is the lefty here so he’s going to have a major advantage with how bad Wacha has been against lefties. Happ has been great vs. righties this year too, with a wOBA of .446.
Wisdom is off to a solid start this year, especially against righties. He has a .391 wOBA and a .380 ISO vs. them. He also lines up very well. Wacha throws his changeup 26% of the time to righties. This is a pitch that Wisdom has crushed from righties, with a .463 wOBA and a .400 ISO. Other bats I’ll look to here are Dansby Swanson, Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roansy Contreras
Roansy Contreras has just 1 bad start out of 4 to start to the year. I fully expect him to make it 2 out of 5 after tonight. He’s just not someone that profiles well as he gives up a ton of fly balls, doesn’t miss many bats, and also has an extremely high WHIP.
His 1.52 WHIP to start the year is one of the highest numbers of anyone on the mound today. We chase pitchers with high WHIPS because it just means there are more batters on the bases and that gives us more chances for runs.
I’m starting off my Dodgers stack with the Rookie of the Year award leader, James Outman. Outman is red hot over the last week with 4 homers and 4 barrels. His 8 wRC also leads the team. In terms of the Rookie of the Year award, he’s really in a class of his own at this point. He’s hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games and after tonight it will be 7 of 8.
Other bats we’ll look at here will be Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bets, JD Martinez, and David Peralta. From a value standpoint, Miguel Vargas should be close to the top of the list. He’s just $2.5k and is 7 for his last 22. He won’t get us much in the way of power, but at his price point if he continues to play like he has he’ll easily return value.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Medina
The Oakland A’s will be turn the ball over to rookie Luis Medina tonight. Medina will be making his major league debut. While he has a fastball that reaches triple digits, he’s also been a pitcher in the minors that has had command issues. Anytime I see a young prospect coming up with command issues, I automatically want to attack him. Major League hitters are way more patient and his command issues could lead to a ton of walks.
The obvious bats here are Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. There’s not much I need to say to sell you on them. They are good, no they’re generationally good. I also really like both Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe here. They were both key additions for the Angels this past offseason.
Renfroe has been great for them so far this season, with 6 homers and 18 RBI. He’s also been solid vs. righties with a .279 ISO. The value bat I’m looking at here Zach Neto. He’s 7 for his last 22 and has a .899 OPS. If he can get on tonight, there’s a great chance that one of Ward, Trout, or Ohtani will knock him in.
MLB DFS Summary
I didn’t name them in my top stacks, but a full game stack of that A’s/Angels game is very much in play. The A’s have shown the ability to put up runs and Sandoval has one of the higher xFIPS of anyone pitching tonight. They could definitely do some damage tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
