Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Sunday here at WinDaily and it’s time for another edition of The Sweet Spot. We are coming off an MLB Single Entry takedown from last night and looking to ride that momentum into today’s slate. The early classic card features 8 games and not a lot of aces. The bats are going to be the key to our success today as I can see several games with high run potential.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the WinDaily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 8 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 9 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
GERRIT COLE ($11,500 DK)
I made a case on Tuesday to avoid rostering Gerrit Cole. And that ended up paying off as he put up less than 2x value versus Cleveland. This morning I mentioned avoiding Cole in this spot due to his opponent and high salary.
But after another look at the card, I think there is value in rostering Cole today. The first reason is that even though the Rays are the top offense in the league, the Yankees SP excels against them. Just last season, he had a 1.07 ERA in four starts against Tampa. And that included 35 K’s in 25.1 innings pitched. And secondly, the pitching is so thin on this card that using Cole and a mix of other arms can still leave you with ~$4K per batter. It’s my personal use of instant replay that overturns my call on Sirius this AM. I am back in on Cole and willing to use him today in what will be a big game between the Yankees and Rays.
JOE RYAN ($10,000 DK)
For the most part, we know what we’re getting in Joe Ryan. In his 6 starts so far in 2023, the Twins SP hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings. And he’s had 5 of 6 starts with 6 K’s or more.
While I normally try to be careful going against Cleveland’s lineup, today looks like a good day to actually attack them. That is because the Guardians are struggling mightily in the past week batting just 0.161 as a unit. Add to that they are striking out at a 25% clip in that same span and we have a favorable matchup for one of the top arms on the slate. Joe Ryan may not have as high of a ceiling as other aces, but he has recorded 3 games of 27 DK points or more. There’s enough here from both sides to like that potential for Ryan to make that 4 games above the 27 DK point threshold.
MASON MILLER ($7600 DK)
Miller is coming off an outing where he tossed 7 no-hit innings against the Mariners. But that was only to see his bullpen come in the 8th inning and blow the lead and game. However, it’s showing the young hurlers ability to dominate lineups with his plus stuff. Recall, I had him as a value play last Tuesday against the Mariners and he responded with a 5x value outing (25.4 DK points). But that’s likely the last time we’ll see him in that value range.
Instead we’ll have to pay some premium for a young pitcher that has really only excelled in one game so far. But I’m willing to do that today against the Royals. Kansas City is hitting well of late as they are 3rd in wOBA over the past week. But I favor pitchers in matchups where teams have not faced someone before. And that’s the case today in KC. Ride the hot hand with Miller and let’s see if his pitching potential can overpower another lineup today in Kansas City.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
HAYDEN WESNESKI ($5600 DK)
It’s tough to dip our toes in the value pool today as there aren’t many high potential arms to target on this slate. However, the young arm that I think has “value” is that of the Cubs RHP Hayden Wesneski. So far this season Wesneski only has one terrible game which was back on April 11th versus Seattle. That was the only outing where he allowed more than 3 ER. And in his past two starts he’s allowed just 2 ER’s in 11 innings. The problem with Wesneski is his K rate, but he’s shown some potential with a 7 K game against Oakland earlier this season.
Which brings us to the Marlins who are 17th in batting average over the past week and just 25th in wOBA in that same span. Also the wind has switched directions today and seems to be blowing in from center. That would play in the Cubs SP favor as he’s seen 16% of his flyballs turn into home runs. Keep it in the park and rack up a few K’s and we should see ~3x value in the Cubs young pitcher today.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JOEY LUCCHESI ($8200 DK) to an extent today against the Rockies. The Rockies are 26th in batting average away from home. The question is how long of a leash does Lucchesi have as he only pitched 46 pitches in his last outing. The thinking is that was mainly due to his performance as he’s had several outings over 90 pitches this season.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in the MLB are the Oakland A’s (vs Yarbrough), the Boston Red Sox (vs. Walker), the St Louis Cardinals (vs. Faedo) and the Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Houck). A sneaky cheap stack you could roll out is Kansas City versus Miller. Yes, I like Miller today but in the lineups you don’t use the Oakland righty, you can get different and deploy several KC hitters. The Royals have hit well of late. The teams have combined for 29 runs in the first two games of this series. In fact, the Royals have 25 runs in their last 5 games.
CORE BATTERS
MASATAKA YOSHIDA ($5100 DK)
On the WinDaily Sirius Fantasy Show this morning, I talked about Yoshida being in a perfect spot today. For one, he’s hit in 15 straight games. And two, he had a night off yesterday which means he should be fresh and ready to join the Boston hit party. Taijuan Walker provides little to no resistance as he’s let up 13 runs in his past 2 games.
BRYCE HARPER ($5600 DK)
Let’s double down in the Phillies vs Red Sox game today and look to roster Bryce Harper. He hit his first home run of the season last night and is batting 0.375 in this first four games back from injury. The home run went to left-center field which is a great sign that he’s seeing the ball well already. Additionally, Tanner Houck is carrying a 5.34 ERA and has allowed 12 ER’s in his last 3 games.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
RYAN NODA ($2800 DK)
The A’s first baseman has 50 DK points in his last two games. Start him with confidence today against Ryan Yarbrough.
DYLAN CARLSON ($2800 DK)
Dylan Carlson hit a home run yesterday and now has 2 dingers in his past 4 games. The Cardinals OF is averaging 11.3 DK points in those outings and has a real chance to extend that streak facing Detroit SP Alex Faedo.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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