Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a beautiful Tuesday and a great day to bet some baseball and play some MLB DFS. And that’s what we’re here to help with in today’s The Sweet Spot. The classic slate has 10 games and a lot of K potential from the pitching perspective. The Sweet Spot for SP’s looks to be below $9K and we’ll highlight some of those below.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
SPENCER STRIDER ($12,300 DK)
I was driving around the local area the other day and I saw many “Say No” signs to different proposed politically strategic offerings. And it made me think of my typical “Say No” slogan for any pitchers above $12K. Which is where I’m at once again today with Spencer Strider. But he’s had more starts below 20 DK points (4) than above 32 DK points (3). The fact of the matter is, you need 2.5x to 3.0x return on your pitchers which means we’ll need a minimum of 30 DK points just to stay in contention in GPP’s. And that’s only happened in 4 of 9 starts for Strider.
We can then add today’s opponent, the LA Dodgers, to the equation. Over the past week, the Dodgers are 7th in ISO, 9th in wOBA and 10th in wRC+. Additionally, they are striking out just 20.8% of the time which is 9th least in the MLB. The lineup is whole and has scored 5 runs or more in 6 straight games. So add that to the inflated price of someone who puts up value < 50% of the outings and you have a pass for me.
SONNY GRAY ($10.600 DK)
I’ve been at the top of the tower for over a month now shouting to fade Sonny Gray. And while it hasn’t always been the sagest of advices, we did see it come to fruition in 2 of his last 3 starts. The advanced metrics still show negative regression in Gray’s future (SIERA is 2 runs higher than actual ERA). But I have two reasons why he’s my favorite pitcher at the top of the slate tonight.
The first reasoning is Gray’s opponent in the San Francisco Giants. Over the past week they are batting just 0.237 which is good for 22nd in baseball. And they are still striking out at a high rate (25.8% over the past week) which matches their season total (25.6%). It’s a lineup he can attack and rack up solid K numbers. Secondly, Gray has been great at home which is where he finds himself tonight. The Twins SP has a 3-0 record and 0.89 ERA in 5 starts at Target Field. He also has 42 K’s in 30.1 innings at home vice 18 K’s in 19 innings on the road. So if there is a time to use him and get down from the top of the negative regression tower, it’s tonight against the Giants.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ ($8800 DK)
Eduardo Rodriguez has the second most 30 point DK outings on the slate today (3) trailing only Spencer Strider (4). He’s been one of the best SP’s over the past month with a 4-1 record and 1.11 ERA. He’s struck out 43 over that 6 start span and only had one outing with a return of <1x.
Tonight’s opponent, the Kansas City Royals, have hit a major offensive skid over the past week. KC is batting just 0.163 and striking out 29.4% of the time in their past 6 games. In their weekend series with the White Sox they managed just 3 total runs in 3 games. This looks to be a lucrative spot for Rodriguez and I believe he will return on your investment based on his recent performances and his struggling opposition.
EURY PEREZ ($7100 DK)
The $7000 and $8000 range tonight is where I’ll live with most of my pitching combinations tonight. I see a ton of value and great matchups to utilize. Which brings us to the young Marlins starting pitcher in Mr. Eury Perez. Perez made the jump to the bigs from AA and has shown great stuff. In just 9.2 innings of work he’s struck out 13 batters. And his WHIP is impressive at 1.02. The only runs he’s allowed have been via the solo home run. So bottle all that up and then throw it against the Rockies tonight to give us a pitcher with a potentially low floor but a very high ceiling.
Colorado does hit much better at home but they have been striking out at a decent clip over the past week (22.8%) and are just 17th in ISO (which is important when we factor in what Perez has been the victim of). The Marlins starter last night, Edward Cabrera, put up close to 20 DK points after allowing 2 runs in the 1st inning. I see that similar type of potential tonight which would bring us good value and a steal at this price.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
BRAYAN BELLO ($6300 DK)
If you read my article frequently, or hear me on the Win Daily MLB Show, I look for high K value in this spot. And tonight, I think we have that in Brayan Bello who sports a 23.8% K rate and a 9.85 K/9 inning value. Bring in the Angles who are striking out at a 27.1% clip the past week (4th most in MLB) and we have a match worth playing. Additionally, he has a SIERRA almost 1 full run lower than his ERA which shows we are trending toward positive regression. The Angels lineup isn’t as feared as expected even with big names such as Trout and Ohtani. I feel comfortable rostering Bello tonight with his solid K potential and matchup with the Angels.
BONUS PICKS
I am fading YU DARVISH ($10,500 DK) tonight as the Nationals lead the league in batting over the past week with a 0.307 batting average. But I do like KODAI SENGA ($9700 DK) today against the Cubs. The Cubs are returning to Chicago off a 9 game road trip where they went 2-7. I like to attack teams on their first game back as they are often somewhat sluggish and can lead to bad plate appearances. Also keep an eye on BOBBY MILLER ($5200 DK) tonight. He’s one of the top pitching prospects in a deep organization. The issue is he’s facing the Braves but often the new pitcher has the advantage in those matchups and he could be a very cheap suprise.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Mariners (vs Miller), the A’s (vs. Medina), the Red Sox (vs. Canning) and the Astros (vs. Rea).
CORE BATTERS
YORDAN ALVAREZ ($6200 DK)
The Astros OF had a ball game to remember last night as he went 3 for 4 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI’s. He’s been very good all year but in particular of late with hits in 7 of his past 8 games.
For stacking, look at MAURICIO DUBON who is batting 0.400 over his past 6 games with ALEX BREGMAN for a top of the order stack. And consider JAKE MYERS (hitting 0.389 in past 6 games) as a wrap around piece to the stack that could give you some salary relief.
RAFAEL DEVERS ($5100 DK)
The Boston bats have cooled of late but they have a great matchup tonight against Angels SP Griffin Canning. Canning has allowed 16 ER’s in his past 4 starts. He’s also allowed a home run in 5 straight starts. And guess who is 2nd in the AL in home runs? It’s Rafael Devers who has seen Canning before and produced some success.
For stacking, look at MATASAKA YOSHIDA to pair with Devers. Then if you need some cheaper bats, TRISTON CASAS and RAIMEL TAPIA would be my top choices.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MICKEY MONIAK ($2900 DK)
Moniak was a source of major value at the end of last season. While he didn’t win a spot coming out of spring training on the Angels roster, he did earn a call up 10 days ago. And in the 9 games since his return, he’s batting just 0.429 with 3 home runs, including the game winning bomb last night. Even better, he’s been batting leadoff for the Halos adding to his potential high value tonight.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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