DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I’m excited to get into this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!
As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.
Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has since this event was first held in 1946. This is an historic and prestigious event with legends such as Ben Hogan (on 5 occasions), Lee Trevino, Ben Crenshaw, Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, and Arnold Palmer all having won here. It is no surprise then to see a strong field for a non-elevated event. The PGA Tour have actually done a commendable job with scheduling post-Majors. RBC Heritage after the Masters was an elevated event this year, this event carries sufficient history to draw stars, and the elevated Travelers Championship will be played the week after the US Open. Although I would not consider the 3M Open in the same vein, it is understandable allowing travel back from the UK after The Open Championship.
Course Analysis for our Charles Schwab Challenge Picks
What type of golfer suits Colonial Country Club? This course provides for a narrow, tree-lined test where driving accuracy is more important than power when finalising your Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Primarily, the positional nature of the golf course is a result of the trees sitting right up to the fairway edge. This requires an accurate tee shot to ensure the best angle into the green without the effect of foliage or hanging branches compromising access.
Additionally, with the relatively shorter length of the course you will see a disproportionate number of approach shots between 100-200 yards. Certainly, targeting approach buckets has its flaws. However, when the range is relatively large and the sheer number of shots is such as we see here it is worthy of considering targeting this range for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Finally, short-game and chipping will be important this week. We see a large uptick in SG: ATG as a predictive factor at Colonial Country Club. This is a combination of the positional nature compromising approach shots. Additionally, the greens play firm and are mid-size targets at an average 5,000 sq ft with plenty of bunkering.
Course Comps for Colonial Country Club
Prior form at Colonial Country Club is helpful for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks. However, it is not one of the “stickiest” in terms of course history that we see on the PGA Tour. There are several courses that can be used as a predictor to Colonial Country Club.
Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage stands out as another positional course where accuracy off the tee is imperative. It is the primary indicator for the Charles Schwab Challenge picks. Overhanging trees are also a factor at this course and the approach ranges are similar to what we will see this week.
Waialae Country Club, host of the Sony Open, is a factor here for similar reasons. Sea Island Resort, where the RSM Classic is held, also ticks these boxes. TPC Southwind and El Cameleon are both courses that demand accuracy off the tee. Finally, consideration to TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club should be factors for your Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Weather Analysis
Wind is often a factor in Texas. However, we look to be set for a calm week guiding our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Both Thursday and Friday look set for low winds in single digits, with gusts reaching a moderate 10-15mph. Winds are also less impactful here with many fairways guarded by trees lessening any effect. Certainly, in both rounds 1 and 2 it looks like the morning groups will provide the best conditions. Therefore, it is unlikely to result in any actionable weather advantage for our Charles Schwab Challenge picks.
Do note that weather was quite a factor in last year’s tournament. Scoring was high and a single figure score of -9 was sufficient to get the job done. With less wind in the forecast this week, we suspect a return to a winning score between -14 to -17 is likely.
You can find the latest weather forecasts here.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks
Suggested Staking
Russell Henley
2.5pts WIN +4000 (MGM/Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +350 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cam Davis – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +4500 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +400 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Denny McCarthy
2pts WIN +7000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +500 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +5500 (Bet365 with 8 placed 1/5 odds)
Chistiaan Bezuidenhout
2.5pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2.5pts Top 10 +650 (Draftkings)
or 2.5pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brendon Todd – Your Charles Schwab Challenge Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +9000 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 10 +600 (Draftkings)
or 2pts E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Andrew Putnam
1pt WIN +12000 (Fanduel)
1pt Top 10 +800 (Draftkings)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +320 (Draftkings) or +400 (Bet365)
Matthew NeSmith
0.5pts WIN +22000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365 or Draftkings)
And
2pts Top 40 +160 (Bet365) or +140 (Draftkings)
