Dave Gloeckner 
Welcome to Memorial Day Weekend and a special edition of The Sweet Spot. I hope you are all finding some down time while also remembering those who gave their life to our country. Today also marks the unofficial start to summer which means baseball is starting to take over the lime light in major sports. So let’s make that unofficial start our time to shine and take down some contests today.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:05 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM Start
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,700 DK)
Valdez has two 40+ DK point games in his past three outings. And one of those was against his opponent tonight, the Oakland A’s. In that start he pitched a complete game shut out and racked up 7 K’s. The A’s gameplan was to attack early but that led to a low pitch count which allowed Valdez to go the distance. I’ll be curious to see if they deploy the same strategy. But either way, they are undermanned and Valdez is in line for another big day. And this salary feels on the cheaper side of aces lately as we’ve seen many above $12K. Don’t overthink this one, Valdez is the top arm on this slate for a reason and will dominate a feeble A’s lineup.
LOGAN WEBB ($10,100 DK)
Today is a rare day where I feel like the top of the pitching slate carries high value. There are several aces in the $9K range but all have tough match-ups or recent struggles. Which brings us to Logan Webb who has been a model of consistency. He’s only had one start with less than 6 innings pitched and that was back in early April. His ERA is good for 13th in the league and he is striking out a career high 25.3% of batters.
Logan Webb is a play in most of his outings due to the high probability of racking up innings and outs. But he’s even higher on my list today because of his opponent in the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is striking out 26.1% of the time over the past 10 days (5th highest in MLB). And they’re batting just 0.208 in that span which is good for 29th. There’s no fearing the Deer, or the Beer, today in Milwaukee.
CHRIS BASSITT ($8500 DK)
Bassitt has also been a model of consistency this season averaging 18.5 DK points per start. He’s only had two outings that lasted less than 6 innings. And if we scratch out the first start of the season, he’s posted a 1.83 ERA over his last 9 starts.
Today he faces Minnesota who, like Milwaukee, has struggled offensively of late. They are striking out at a massively high rate of 31% over the past 11 days. And they are 23rd in batting, 20th in ISO and 24th in wOBA in that span. We saw Kevin Gausman put up an impressive start last night (minus the walks) and I believe Bassitt will follow his lead and neutralize a very lackluster Twins lineup.
JOSIAH GRAY ($7200 DK)
Gray has been solid all season for the Nats. He is 10th in the majors in ERA (2.65) and has allowed just 5 home runs all season (allowed 38 last year). Today he faces the Royals and despite their huge output of 11 runs last night, their bats are struggling of late. Over the past 10 games, Kansas City has the 4th highest K rate (27.5%) and is 27th in batting average, 28th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+. Normally teams like this can’t put together back-to-back good outings which also adds to Gray’s value today.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
LUIS SEVERINO ($7000 DK)
San Diego’s lineup is filled with All Stars and MVP’s. And they were once thought of as this feared lineup. But it’s actually on the contrary this season as they rank at the bottom of the league in so many hitting categories. For one, they are last in batting average at 0.222. And while that would be fine if they were hitting for power, they are 14th in home runs and 15th in ISO. They also strike out the 10th most in the league.
Severino is making just his 2nd start of the season but his first one was very productive as he pitched into the 5th inning allowing just 1 ER and posting 5 K’s. The Yankees SP is typically a $9K pitcher so we’re getting good value today and have an opportunity to attack a lineup that’s stats don’t match the names.
BONUS PICKS
I do like LUIS CASTILLO ($9200 DK) today against the Pirates. Pittsburgh hit 7 home runs last night off Seattle. I expect Castillo to have a game plan to keep them off balance and slow down their bats. Castillo at home is a different pitcher than on the road (3-1 vs 0-1). And we get him in Seattle today so there’s further justification on why we should be bullish on his line today.
Also keep an eye on TYLER GLASNOW ($8600 DK) today. He’s making his first start this season and my only concern is the pitch count. But based on his rehab starts, he could easily still put up 20+ DK points today and bring back good value. The intrigue is he’ll be on the low side of ownership because of the pitch restriction and the fact he’s facing the Dodgers. But that could also mean he pops as a top 5 SP on the board. The risk could be worth the reward.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Rangers (vs Kremer), the Mariners (vs. Velasquez), the Giants (vs. Burnes) and the Astros (vs. Harris).
CORE BATTERS
YORDAN ALVAREZ ($6200 DK)
The Astros OF has produced positive points in 14 of his past 15 games. And we’re getting him in a great spot as he’s coming off three straight games with 0 hits. So he’ll be looking to break out of that slump and he’s facing Hogan Harris who has a 162.0 ERA. If Harris doesn’t last long then he gets the A’s bullpen which is last in the league with a 6.30 ERA. All signs point to go with Alvarez and an Astros stack today.
For stacking, look at KYLE TUCKER who is batting 0.341 over his past 12 games with ALEX BREGMAN for a middle of the order stack. And consider JAKE MYERS and COREY JULKS (5 for last 12) as wrap around pieces to the stack that could give you some salary relief.
MARCUS SEMIEN ($5100 DK)
The Rangers 2B is 4 for 9 in his career off O’s SP Dean Kremer. And he’s brining a 15 game hitting streak into today’s game. We need to get active with this Rangers roster and we’ll start at the top with Semien.
For stacking, the Rangers look to be as good of a lineup to stack as any. In the last 10 games they are batting 0.296 with a 0.206 ISO, both good for 3rd in MLB. Look at JOSH JUNG, ADOLIS GARCIA and COREY SEAGER to pair with Semien. Then if you need some cheaper bats, ROSS GROSSMAN and LEODY TAVERAS would be my top choices.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MARCELL OZUNA ($2700 DK)
Marcell Ozuna is in one of those zones so he’s in play no matter the SP. Ozuna has homered in 3 straight and is now up to 11 home runs on the season. He’s also had a hit in 12 of his past 13 games. This is a prime spot to play the Braves power hitting, yellow sleeved, OF.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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