Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Sunday Funday at The Sweet Spot. We had a good Saturday in DFS as I had a few top 10’s in big GPP’s. But it wasn’t a takedown so we’re still chasing the big one. Today, we have 10 games on the main slate and the pitching is really spread out as there is value in all 3 tiers but no real high ceiling spots (Tier 1: $9K to $12K, Tier 2: $7K to $9K, Tier 3: $7K or less). We also have some hot hitting teams facing bad pitching which means the stacks and bats look to be the most important factor today.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 10 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 10 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
NATHAN EOVALDI ($11,000 DK)
I’m writing about Eovaldi from the simple perspective that I’m not going to use him today. It’s similar to Spencer Strider last night who was $12.5K and put up 23.3 DK points. It was a nice start, one where he got the win and went 6 innings with 7 K’s. But pitchers in the $7K and $8K range outscored him. For Eovaldi to record the type of points we need to get value here, he’d have to go 7+ innings with less than 1 ER and 7+ K’s. And I don’t see that happening today as he’s had 5 K’s or less in 4 of his last 5 games. This is just too much money for a pitcher that has 2 games over 31 DK points. We need to find better spots so we can pay up for bats today.
KODAI SENGA ($9300 DK)
This could be recency bias, but what I saw out of Senga earlier this week is a pitcher that can dominate a game with his stuff. He threw his best game of the year in that outing versus the Phillies allowing just 1 hit in 7 innings and racking up 9 K’s. It was the only outing this year where he didn’t allow a walk. In fact, he’s allowed 3 or more in 8 of his 10 starts.
But he’s shown to be dynamic at home and that’s where he is today against the Blue Jays. He is 3-1 with a 1.20 ERA in New York. And the Blue Jays haven’t been tearing it up lately as they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their past 4 games (25th in MLB in runs scored in past 10 games). Keep the walks down, which Toronto is just 20th in BB%, and Senga will be able to put up solid numbers today. I have confidence that will happen and will look to Senga in my GPP’s.
SANDY ALCANTARA ($9000 DK)
Let’s face it, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner has been bad this season. He’s only had one start where he allowed 1 ER or less (he had 17 such starts last year). His control has been an issue of late as he’s offered 13 free passes in his past 4 starts. And his K’s are way down this season as well which has led to his highest BA allowed since 2019.
But today is a chance to right the ship as he welcomes the Oakland A’s into Miami. That’s because in the last 10 games Oakland is batting 0.181 which is good for last in baseball. They are also last in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ in that span. They’re also striking out at the 7th highest rate which just all adds up to a big day for the Marlins ace.
TRISTON MCKENZIE ($8100 DK)
Triston McKenzie is making his first start of the season for the Guardians and it couldn’t come at a better time. The Guardians are sitting in 3rd place in the AL Central and facing the division leaders in the Minnesota Twins. They need some life and momentum going forward as their starting pitching has the second lowest K/9 and K% in all of baseball. Adding McKenzie to the rotation, who recorded 190 K’s in 191.1 innings last season, will surely help remedy those issues.
And speaking of K’s, he’s facing Minnesota who leads the league in K rate at ~27%. He’s coming in at an opportune time to add some juice to a team sitting in neutral. And while he may only go 80-85 pitches, that could be good for 5+ innings and 5+ K’s. Which at $8100 would give us good return on our investment.
BEN LIVELY ($7500 DK)
If you listened to the Win Daily Show on Sirius Fantasy Radio this morning (channel 87) then you’ll know I like Lively’s potential today. He’s coming in with 22 K’s in his last 3 starts. He’s also averaging 24.8 DK points over that span and that was against the likes of St Louis, Boston and NYY. Today he gets the Brewers who snapped out of their offensive funk yesterday against Graham Ashcraft. But the question is can a team hitting just 0.188 in their past 10 games double down and do it again today? I say no and have confidence the journeyman from Cincy can continue his hot streak and put up another positive production day on the mound.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
RANGER SUAREZ ($5700 DK)
While I typically like to look for K value in this range, I’m making a left turn today and going with Ranger Suarez against the Nats. Suarez found his form in his last outing against the Mets where he went 6.2 innings and allowed just 2 ER’s. Suarez does nibble around the plate and can get into walk issues, but the Nats also like to put the ball in play as witnessed by their 0.264 batting average which is good for 5th in baseball. That also pairs with their 7.4% walk rate which is 28th in baseball. So Ranger pitches to contact which the Nationals will provide. I could easily see another 6+ inning outing and 15-18 DK points bringing back a 3x return. That’s what we search for in the value land. Tread carefully but also don’t be afraid to take chances.
BONUS PICKS
I do like TAJ BRADLEY ($8800 DK) today against the Red Sox. The BoSox bats have cooled of late as they batted 20 points lower in May than they did in April. And Taj Bradley did register one quality outing against Boston earlier this year when he racked up 8 K’s and 21 DK points on just 78 pitches. He threw a season high 90 pitches in his last outing which would translate to another inning of work over his previous outing against Boston. With similar results we could see 25+ Dk points which is in the 3x range we like to target.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Phillies (vs Williams), the Rockies (vs. Singer), the Reds (vs. Houser) and the Marlins (vs. Blackburn).
CORE BATTERS
NICK CASTELLANOS ($4500 DK)
Castellanos is the Phillies best hitter in 2023. And he’s hot at the plate of late batting 0.375 over his past 10 games. He’s also had success off Nats SP Trevor Williams with a 0.364 batting average in 24 plate appearances.
For stacking, look at KYLE SCHWARBER, BRYSON STOTT and BRYCE HARPER today as they makeup the top to middle part of the order that would stack well with Castellanos.
RYAN MCMAHON ($4800 DK)
The Rockies 3B is on an absolute heater. He is batting 0.452 with 15 RBI’s in his last 11 games. He also has 5 home runs in that span. He’ll keep it cooking today against Brady Singer who owns a hefty 7.12 ERA.
For stacking, I also like ALAN TREJO, EZEQUIAL TOVAR, CHARLIE BLACKMON and ELIA DIAZ today.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
KEVIN NEWMAN ($2500 DK)
One stack I like as mentioned above is the Cincinatti Reds. Batters such as Steer, McClain India and Fraley are all great options. But for value, let’s look at the leadoff spot and Kevin Newman. He’s hitting 0.412 over his past 9 games. And in 6 of those, he has recorded multi-hits. A hot batter at the top of a hot lineup for just $2500, sign me up.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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