Dave Gloeckner 
It’s Touch ‘Em All Tuesday here at The Sweet Spot. My Little League Baseball Team won in walk-off fashion last night in a playoff game so I’m feeling like it’s a good day to go out and touch ‘em all. And that starts with our DFS lineups as we look to battle the “new” crowd over the next 1-2 months. With basketball and hockey down to just showdowns and being off most nights, novice to non-everyday baseball DFS players will be testing their merits in MLB contests. So for those of us in tune with the daily activity, it should be setup well for us to have profitable days ahead.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 12 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 12 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
MITCH KELLER ($10,900 DK)
This pitching slate tonight is very tough to pick from. At the top we have Kevin Gausman who can rack up double digit K’s any game. But he’s facing Houston who is a formidable offense that has the 7th lowest K rate in baseball. Then there is his counterpart in Hunter Brown who has the 4th highest K/9 of all pitchers tonight and 2nd highest GB%. But he’s facing the Blue Jays who have the 4th lowest K rate in baseball and are 16th in GB%. So both are passes for me.
Which leaves us with Mitch Keller. Now, we’ve been on the Keller bandwagon since early last season. But there was never a day I thought I’d see his salary near $11K. At $10,900 this is the highest he’s ever been listed at. But it’s with good reason as he has the hapless Oakland A’s coming to town. The A’s are now last in batting average in the MLB at 0.218. They also strike out at the 5th highest rate, 25%. As for Keller, he’s had 7 straight starts with 8 K’s or more. And when facing teams in the top 12 in K rate, he’s averaging 6.2 innings pitched and striking out 7.8 batters. It’s a lot to pay up for a Pirates pitcher but the situation as well as the depth in pitching tonight allows us to take a chance here with Keller.
LOGAN GILBERT ($9900 DK)
Of all the SP’s on the slate tonight, Logan Gilbert is at the top of the list when it comes to future positive regression. His FIP and SIERRA are almost 1 full run lower than his actual 4.08 ERA. Batters are hitting just 0.214 off the Seattle starter, which is bested by only Gonsolin and Brebbia. But they’ve been timely hits which have victimized Gilbert. The Mariners SP has allowed a 0.345 batting average with runners in scoring position with a 0.533 slugging percentage.
But those problems should be solved tonight as he faces the San Diego Padres who are dead last in the MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position (0.198). And they slug just 0.328 in the same situation. The Padres also strike out a lot, 24.8% which is good for 11th in baseball. This looks like a spot where we see the positive regression we’re looking for and I have high confidence in Gilbert putting up value for DFS players tonight.
JAMES PAXTON ($8600 DK)
Paxton looks to be in a good spot as he faces a Cleveland who is just 2 runs above Detroit and Oakland for least runs scored in the AL. And as we know, their best hitter Jose Ramirez has less power and average from the right side of the plate (batting just 0.164 versus LHPs versus 0.305 versus RHPs). Add into that the fact that Paxton has a K/9 over 12 (even higher than Gausman but in much less games) and we have a high ceiling spot in Cleveland tonight which is what we want in bigger tournaments.
JOE MUSGROVE ($7800 DK)
It’s taken some ugly outings early in the year, but Musgrove is finally starting to show his 2022 form. In his last two starts, both wins, he’s allowed just 1 ER over 12.1 innings pitched. And that was against two solid offenses in Miami and the New York Yankees. I think he’ll continue that success against a Mariners lineup that is just struggling to put it together. Seattle is batting just 0.210 with a 29.2% K rate over the past week. And they continue to tinker with their lineup as we’ve seen them just recently add Jarred Kelenic to the leadoff spot. It’s a team looking for answers versus a pitcher that may have just found some. So I’ll go with the arm tonight and see if we can see the resurgence of Musgrove continue. If so, he won’t be at this price much longer.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
TYLER ANDERSON ($5600 DK)
The ERA and K numbers are ugly. But he’s facing the Cubs who are batting 0.181 with a 31.2% K rate over the past week. They’ve scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 11 games. At this point, it’s worth a shot with any pitcher versus the Cubs based on their recent abysmal numbers.
BONUS PICKS
I do like CLARKE SCHMIDT ($7900 DK) today against the White Sox. Schmidt is trending in a good direction with 2 ER’s or less in his last 3 starts. The Yankees starting pitcher has a 5.01 ERA but a FIP of just 3.95 which is good for positive regression. And the White Sox are striking out at a 25.3% clip over the past week which is 7th highest in baseball.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Pirates (vs Kaprielian), the Dbacks (vs. Irvin), the Rangers (vs. Liberatore) and the Braves (vs. Carrasco).
CORE BATTERS
MATT OLSON ($5600 DK)
Olson, like a lot of Braves hitters, has good career numbers off Mets SP Carlos Carrasco. And he bats 50 points higher against RHP’s than he does against LHP’s. He’s also hitting better at home with 9 of his 17 home runs coming in ATL.
For stacking, look at SEAN MURPHY, AUSTIN RILEY AND EDDIE ROSARIO. The most notable is the last name in that stack as Rosario a hit in 6 straight games and is coming off a game winning grand slam on Sunday in Arizona. He also has 3 career HR’s versus Carrasco.
COREY SEAGER ($5600 DK)
When you have the highest scoring team in the MLB facing a pitcher with a 4.91 ERA, you definitely need to take a deep look at the matchups. And Corey Seager consistently tops my list and projections based on his splits and recent hot streak. The Rangers SS has 5 multi-hit games in his last 5 outings. He’s batting 0.351 on the season and is a steady force in the middle of the best lineup in baseball.
For stacking, I also like MARCUS SEMIEN, JONAH HEIM AND JOSH JUNG today.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
ELLY DE LA CRUZ ($2000 DK)
The Reds have called up the number one prospect in baseball to start tonight against LA. De La Cruz is batting cleanup in his highly anticipated MLB debut. The Reds were in need of a bat when Nick Senzel went down with an injury. And they couldn’t resist temptation as Cruz’s numbers in the minors and his raw talent were too good to pass up. Jump on the low salary today because it’ll shortly sky rocket soon.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel that keeps you in tune with all of our shows.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.
