Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Special Sunday here at The Sweet Spot as it’s Father’s Day. So first off, shout out to all the dads out there and I hope you have a great Father’s Day. And I wish the same to those who may not be a dad but are still celebrating it with a special Father in your life. Let’s get at it today and layout some winners so you can just drink, grill and chill.
It’s been another good week on the DFS side as we’ve seen subscribers hit big takedowns and our team put out solid lineups that have reaped good returns. I don’t think that slows down today as there are several under the radar matchups that we will look to exploit. The key to today will be finding good pitching as the slate is dry on aces.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:05 pm with 9 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 9 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM Start
JON GRAY ($10,100 DK)
The Rangers SP has the highest fantasy point average of all pitchers today. And that doesn’t make this play automatic as he’s facing a touch lineup in the Toronto Blue Jays. But what makes him in play is his consistency over the whole season but more importantly in his last 6 starts. Over that span he is 5-1 with a 0.83 ERA. The only contest he lost in that span was a 1-0 game in his last start where he threw a complete game with 10 K’s. Overall, he is 3rd in the league in ERA (2.32) and 2nd in WHIP (0.96).
While the Blue Jays are formidable, as they are 2nd in batting average and 3rd in OBP, they have scored 3 runs or less in 4 straight games. Gray is getting the Jays at the right time and will look to continue his recent dominance on the mound.
LOUIE VARLAND ($8700 DK)
It’s crazy how uninspiring the top of the pitching slate is today. So I have to dive below $9K to find my next favorite SP and that is somebody that owns a 4.70 ERA and has allowed 11 ER’s in his last 2 starts. But I am banking on Varland for 2 reasons; his opponent and K potential.
Detroit is striking out 22.2% of the time of the last week of games. And on the season they have the 8th highest K rate at 24.1%. And for what it’s worth, Varland has gone at least 6 innings in all of his home starts this year (3). I think there’s good potential for a 2.5x value day here from Varland and on a slate with low projected pitching totals that would put him up near the top of the board.
FREDDIE PERALTA ($9700 DK)
This one scares me because Peralta is not a $9700 pitcher. He owns a 4.74 ERA and has half of his starts resulting in less than 10 DK points. But the reason I will use him today is because of his opponent and his home splits. The Pirates are batting just 0.206 over the last week and are losers of 5 straight games. They’re coming off a shutout and scored 2 runs or less in 6 games this month.
As for Peralta, his home ERA is 2.5 runs lower than his road ERA. And his strikeout numbers go up by almost 30% at home. Those are good enough reasons to consider Peralta today even with his inflated salary.
TYLER ANDERSON ($7000 DK)
The good news is that Anderson has three starts with 2x value or more in his last four outings. And his advanced metrics show a FIP and SIERA that are between 0.5 and 0.75 runs below his ERA. We’re also getting him against a KC team that is 1-10 in their last 11 games. In that stretch they batted just 0.231 and are 27th in both wOBA and wRC+.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
MATT LIBERATORE ($6600 DK)
The Cardinals starting pitcher is coming off his best start since May 17th where in his last outing he went 6 innings and allowed just 2 ER’s. His advanced numbers also show positive regression is on the way with a FIP that is 1 run below his ERA. And he’s facing the Mets who are 22nd in batting and 23rd in wOBA over the past week. Even more important, the home plate umpire is Dan Merzel who has the highest K rate of any umpire behind the plate today.
BONUS PICKS
I do like JESUS LUZARDO ($9900 DK) today against the Nationals. The Marlins LHP has the highest K rate for any SP on the early slate at 27.3%. He also has a FIP and SIERA that are 0.60 runs lower than his ERA. He has one outing versus Washington this year and in that starts he went 6 innings allowing just 1 ER and striking out 7 batters.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Cardinals (vs Carrasco), the Orioles (vs. Tailon), the Reds (vs. Blanco) and the Braves (vs. Anderson).
CORE BATTERS
ADLEY RUTSCHMAN ($5400 DK)
As of this writing, the Orioles have not submitted their starting lineup. But we’re going to roll out a few O’s with the hopes that most, if not all, are starting today. First off is Rutschman who brings in a 5 game hitting streak to today’s contest. Also, the wind is blowing out to left and left-center which is great news for Orioles hitters as Cubs SP Jameson Taillon has a 45.4% fly ball rate and 13% HR/FB ratio .
For stacking, look at RYAN OHEARN, GUNNAR HENDERSON, ANTHONY SANTANDER AND AUSTIN HAYES. The Blue Jays could be a good run-back here too.
RONALD ACUNA JR ($6500 DK)
The Braves offense has feasted on Rockies pitching this weekend. They have 26 runs scored in the first 3 games on the series and have won each game by at least 5 runs. So we’ll look to target their matchup against Chase Anderson who has allowed 6 home runs in his past 4 games.
For stacking, I also like MARCELL OZUNA, MATT OLSON, TRAVIS D’ARNAUD and AUSTIN RILEY.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
JOEY WIEMER ($2900 DK)
Wiemer has two straight games with a home run and is averaging 15 DK points in those contests. The Milwaukee lineup has woken up against Pirates pitching and today they face Luis Ortiz who has a 6.75 ERA on the road.
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