Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Tasty Tuesday here at the Sweet Spot as we roll into the heat of the summer months. Draftkings has a big $100K Might Micro tonight for $2.22 as part of their Micro Millions event. So get some entries in there as I’m sure we have some novices taking a stab at the big GPP pot.
We finally have some good names at the top of the pitching lineup to use (or fade) tonight. The last few days have been dry on the aces so it’s nice to see that potential back in the slate.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 7:05 pm with 11 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 11 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM Start
NATHAN EOVALDI ($11,100 DK)
If you’re new to the Sweet Spot article that I write ~2-3 times a week then let me introduce you to my position on pitchers over $11K. With an 11 game slate, you have to be certain that a pitcher can get you a minimum of 2.5x value at the top spot. And that’s because there will be pitchers in the lower ranges that meet and exceed expectations. Spending up on a pitcher in this range seriously handcuffs with getting quality bats.
With all that said, I do think Eovaldi carries good value tonight. The White Sox are batting just 0.213 over the past 10 days. And they’ve scored 4 runs or more in just 3 of their last 13 games. Their K rate in that same span is 28% which is the 3rd most in the league. All signs point to a good game from Eovaldi. We’ll actually need a great one and I think there’s a high probability that can happen versus a White Sox team that is struggling mightily at the plate.
FRAMBER VALDEZ ($10,200 DK)
Valdez is doubling down on his great 2022 campaign. He is second in the MLB with a 2.27 ERA and also second in quality starts with 11. More importantly his strikeout numbers are up as he whiffing one more batter per 9 innings than he did in 2022. And his K rate has risen from 23.5% to 26.2%. Bring on the Mets who are just 24th in batting and 18th in wOBA this month which makes this a very good opportunity to roster Valdez with confidence tonight.
MARCUS STROMAN ($8900 DK)
Stroman is 4th in the league in ERA (2.45) and has the most quality starts (13) of any pitcher. He is quietly putting his name in the Cy Young race with an 8-4 record and 3.5 WAR. His advanced numbers have a xFIP and FIP almost 1 run higher than his ERA. So there is reason to believe negative regression is coming. I just don’t see it happening tonight in Pittsburgh. For one, the Pirates are last in batting with a 0.193 average over the past 10 days. They’ve also scored just 2 runs in their last 3 games (and just 17 in their current 7 game losing streak). I like Stroman tonight to pitch a solid game and continue the Cubs recent dominance, 4 game winning streak, over the Pirates.
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($7300 DK)
We hit on Verlander last week as he returned a nice 21.7 DK points outing versus the Yankees. And all that did was lower his salary 10% more for tonight’s anticipated matchup against the Astros. I use that word anticipated solely because Verlander is facing the team he won a World Series with last year and spent the last 5 seasons calling home. So he’s going to be fired up to perform well against a team that didn’t commit to him following a Cy Young campaign.
Then there’s the numbers which intrigue me even more. The Astros are 18th versus the slider, 27th versus the fastball, and 23rd versus the curveball. Here are Verlander’s pitch usage rates this year:
- Fastball: 50.5%
- Slider: 30.7%
- Curveball: 16.1%
- Change-up: 2.6%
So even with the righties struggles this year, his recent form plus his additional motivation combined with the Astros struggles against his primary pitches make this a very attractive matchup for DFS players.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
REID DETMERS ($6900 DK)
Detmers has some really good metrics that make us want to keep an eye on him going forward. And that includes tonight versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. For one, he has the K numbers we love in the value range; 10.97 K/9 and 27.7% K rate. And secondly, his 4.48 ERA is met with a FIP one full run lower at 3.49. That in of itself encapsulates his recent resurgence as he has 16 K’s with only 2 ER’s over his past 2 outings.
The Dodgers are always a tough team to attack. But in the last 10 days they are batting 0.225 as a team (27th in MLB) and are limping into this series fresh off a 3 game sweep at the hands of the Giants. They were outscored in that series 29-8. So it looks like a sweet spot for both Detmers and DFS users to fade the Dodgers lineup.
BONUS PICKS
I do like AARON CIVALE ($7900 DK) today against the A’s. Oakland’s mini hot run has faded as they’ve now lost 5 in a row after winning 7 straight. They’re also batting near the Mendoza line, with a 0.210 batting average, over the past 10 games. Civale has pitched just 5 games but is sporting a nice 2.67 ERA. Add to that Cleveland has been playing better so there is a high potential for the win and 4 extra DK points.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 7:05 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today in baseball are the Reds (vs Davis), the Diamondbacks (vs. Rea), the Guardians (vs. Waldichuk) and the Padres (vs. DeSclafani).
CORE BATTERS
JOSE RAMIREZ ($5200 DK)
Over the past 10 games, the Guardians 3B is hitting 0.409 with 5 home runs and 13 RBI’s. He’s had multi-hits in 6 of those 10 games. He’s been on fire and now gets to face the worst pitching staff in the majors in Oakland. Enough said and he should be considered as someone to build around tonight.
For stacking, look at AMAD ROSARIO, STEVEN KWAN and JOSH NAYLOR. Another bat to consider is ANDRES GIMENEZ who has a 4 game hitting streak coming into the game tonight.
FERNANDO TATIS JR ($6500 DK)
If you can save some money for a Padres stack then you must start it with Fernando Tatis Jr. In a similar stretch as Ramirez, he is hitting 0.400 with 3 home runs and 11 RBI’s in his past 11 games. And they are facing Anthony DeSclafani who has allowed 29 ER’s over his past 8 starts. He also has a 9.00 ERA in the month of June.
For stacking, I also like JUAN SOTO, MANNY MACHADO, TRENT GRISHAM and ROUGNED ODOR.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
MIKE TAUCHMAN ($2400 DK)
While the Cubs didn’t make my top 4 stacks, they are just outside it at 5th. That’s because they’ve scored 36 runs in the past 4 games (all over the past week) against Pirates pitching. And Tauchman is coming into the game tonight off two very good games where he scored a total of 40 DK points. If the Cubs lineup keeps rolling it will start at the top with Tauchman.
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