Dave Gloeckner 
It’s the Sunday Funday edition of The Sweet Spot. And hopefully, it’s a long holiday weekend for you as we celebrate our Nation’s birth. We’re coming off some big performances yesterday including a 19-run game and three other offensive outbursts of 11 runs or more. So while yesterday was the day of the bats, the pitching looks strong today. We have 3 pitchers above $11k who could all post a 40-point game as they are a combined 24-7 with 398 K’s so far this season. So let’s roll today with arms in mind but also ensure we get the stacks right.
This article will focus on Pitchers, from aces to value, and Hitters, from team stacks to studs to value plays. Prop bets for today will be provided in the Gophers and Gas article.
There are many tools available, but I hope you’re using the Win Daily Projection Model as that has been very helpful in rostering key players each night.
For DFS, the featured card today begins at 1:35 pm with 9 games on the slate. All DFS plays below will come from those 9 games and any later games will be captured in Discord.
PITCHERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM Start
KEVIN GAUSMAN ($11,000 DK)
As mentioned above, there are 3 aces with a salary above $11K. And there is merit in using any of those arms. But when we stretch this out, Strider is $1.8K more than Gausman and averages just 1.2 points per game more than the Jays ace. The difference in $1800 dollars is Ronald Acuna to Kyle Schwarber which is a 4.2 point per game difference. So alone, the mathematical difference is too large for me to climb the Strider ladder.
This brings us to Kevin Gausman who is coming off a gem of a game versus the Giants. And he’s facing a Boston team who is striking out 27% in the last two weeks. And they are batting just 0.233 while going 3-7 in their last 10. I’ll take this matchup over Cole’s and Strider’s and we’re getting a discount too.
ANDREW ABBOTT ($9200 DK)
I’ve been on the Abbott train since it hit Cincinnati a few weeks ago. And he hasn’t disappointed as he’s 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 5 career starts. Even more impressive is that he’s performed this well while facing quality lineups such as Baltimore, St Louis, and Houston. Today, he gets to face one of MLB’s most disappointing teams and underperforming lineups in the San Diego Padres. While they have been better of late they are still hitting just 0.233 on the season (23rd) and are just 15th in wOBA.
Add in the fact that Abbott has increased his K rate in the past 2 games as he’s totaled 18 in that span (just 12 in his first 3) and we have a really good spot to once again ride the Abbott train.
RANGER SUAREZ ($8000 DK)
We teach our kids the phrase “Stranger Danger”. Well opponents of the Phillies SP today have been screaming “Ranger Danger” of late. And that’s because Ranger Suarez is on a heater. In the month of June, Suarez had 5 starts of 6 innings or more and 1 ER or less. He was 2-0 in those 5 starts with a 1.08 ERA and 24.4 DK point average. And this streak all started with an outing at Washington where he went 7 innings and allowed just 1 ER. I see a pitcher that has full confidence in his arsenal and someone whose confidence is sky high. For those reasons, and his tremendous numbers in June, we are all-in on Ranger Suarez today.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY ($7800 DK)
The Cardinals SP has had this spot circled for quite some time. In one of the more surprising moves last season, the Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals for OF Harrison Bader. The Yankees weren’t necessarily deep at SP but felt they needed a spark in the lineup so they opted for offense. And that caught Montgomery off guard.
He was able to face the Yankees once last season, after the trade, and hurled 5 shutout innings allowing just 2 hits. And he’s coming into this game pitching his best baseball of the season. That’s because he closed out June with a 3-1 record and a 1.71 ERA in 5 starts. He also managed 30 K’s in 31.2 innings pitched which is significant because he is coming off a season with a 7.97 K/9. So we’re seeing his ERA go down while also increasing his K rate which is a boost for DFS players. With all that said, the Yankees batted 0.215 in the month of June which was dead last in the MLB. So we have someone trending in the right direction with definitive motivation versus a team that has struggled at the plate over a significant stretch of games.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (SWEET SPOT VALUE PITCHER UNDER $7K)
COLIN REA ($5200 DK)
Let’s be blunt, the value range stinks today. I’m only dipping into this area if I roster Strider or Cole. But if you can find some gold down here you will have a serious leg up on the competition in GPP’s because hardly anyone will have the stomach to roster a pitcher below $7K.
But if I do go into this range, I’ll look at Colin Rea. He’s facing a Pirates team that is batting 0.220 and striking out 26% of the time over the past 2 weeks. And the Brewers are 4-1 against Pittsburgh this season which brings in the possibility of 4 bonus points. All we need is 14-15 points in this spot to bring back a huge return. And Rea has eclipsed that mark in 5 of his past 7 starts.
BONUS PICKS
Even though the salaries are high, I still like SPENCER STRIDER ($12,800 DK) and GERRIT COLE ($11,200 DK) today. It’s just that I like Gausman more out of that trio. I’ll also consider AARON CIVALE ($7700 DK) and TONY GONSOLIN ($8600 DK). But I must be honest as we highlighted negative regression coming for Gonsolin and it’s shown in 3 of his last 4 starts. The reason I’ll consider him is that KC is striking out at a 28.1% clip over the past 2 weeks.
HITTERS – DRAFTKINGS
CLASSIC SLATE – 1:35 PM
SWEET SPOT STACK ATTACK: The stacks I like today are the Dodgers (vs Singer), the Phillies (vs. Williams), the Braves (vs. Alcantara), and the Guardians (vs Tailion). Of note, these are high salaried offenses so this is why pitching will be the key today. How can you afford these stacks will be the key and will likely happen by keeping your pitching below $18K and leaving ~$4000 per bat.
CORE BATTERS
ALEC BOHM ($3500 DK)
We saw Bohm explode for 44 DK points yesterday as he was the focal point of that 19-run attack. He hit 3 home runs in his first 10 days this year but had only 4 over the next 2 months. The power resurged yesterday which will be a big key for the Phillies going forward as they are near last in ISO and HR’s at the corner IF positions. Here’s another reason to like Bohm today, the fan giveaway is an Alec Bohm headband. He’s gotta do it for the kids! Oh yeah, and he faces Trevor Williams who has allowed 16 home runs this season and is a favorite gas can of ours to attack.
For stacking, look at BRYCE HARPER, NICK CASTELLANOS, BRYSON STOTT, TREA TURNER, and BRANDON MARSH.
MARCELL OZUNA ($4300 DK)
The Braves offense is always in play but it often matters what part of the lineup you take. In the case of today, where I like most pitchers above $8K, I’m going to circle the middle to bottom of their order. I’ll start with their 6th hitter in Marcel Ozuna and that’s because he is 9 for 20 in his career off Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara. He also is bringing with him an 11-game hitting streak and positive point production in all those games.
For stacking, I also like EDDIE ROSARIO, TRAVIS D’ARNAUD, ORLANDO ARCIA and MATT OLSON.
SLAP HITTER (SWEET SPOT VALUE BATTER) – LESS THAN $3K
DARICK HALL ($2600 DK)
As mentioned in the write-up for Alec Bohm, the Phillies have struggled offensively at the corner IF positions. Hall is making his first start since April 5th as he had a torn ligament in his thumb. Hall has a ton of power, as he hit 9 home runs in 41 games in 2022. He’s also 1-1 in his career of Williams which might not mean much but still carries some weight.
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